I firmly believe Columbus-5 is going to be the catalyst for absurd parabolic growth for $LUNA. There has been a lot of great content about why this upgrade is incredibly important, but I want to add some of my own thoughts to the discussion 👇
The first reason for parabolic growth has to do with $UST adoption, given that every $UST requires $1 of $LUNA to be bought and burned. With Col-5 comes many different projects whose aim is to use as much $UST as possible.
I believe the goal of $10b by the end of the year is certainly feasible, given all the developments the upgrade brings. Many of the 50+ protocols building on Terra will suck up a lot of $UST in some way. Here are some specific catalysts I'm looking to (not exhaustive):
@loop_finance, @astroport_fi, as well as @osmosiszone and Cosmos' Gravity DEX will all provide lots of trading pairs with $UST liquidity across all assets in the Terra and Cosmos ecosystems.
@Levana_protocol aims to create decentralized perpetual swaps, of which all the liquidity provided will use $UST as opposed to the assets trading. The perpetual swaps crypto market does over $160B in daily volume across all exchanges
@ProtocolTalis will have the use of $UST to buy NFT's on their marketplace. For reference, OpenSea is currently doing over $200 million in daily volume in a hype cycle, and normally does around $20 million per day during normal cycles.
Ozone is going to bring decentralized insurance to Anchor, potentially bringing in more conservative institutions and a safety net for protocols building on top of Anchor, incentivizing further innovation and therefore $UST adoption.
@kado_money is going to provide an easy on/off ramp for all protocols, making it extremely easy for anyone to onboard their fiat into $UST. And why would you not convert your dirty fiat with a guaranteed 19.5% stable savings rate on Anchor as opposed to .01% from your bank?
.@wormholecrypto is also going to allow cross-chain usage of $UST. We have already seen projects such as @Saber_HQ and @staratlas express large interest in Terra. This provides a whole new world for $UST to dominate, as Solana and these other chains don't have native stablecoins
While I think these will be the clear major catalysts, with another 50+ projects coming down the pipeline not mentioned, all of which will use $UST in one way or another, I think we're set to see parabolic growth of $UST market cap over the coming months
But while $UST growth is certainly a catalyst for a decrease in $LUNA's supply, what people often forget is that a supply shock doesn't just need to come from burning. I think Col-5 also brings many ways to lock up $LUNA in ways that decrease the circulating supply available
As a result of Col-5, the swap fees will be given to stakers as opposed to burned, likely making staking rewards above 10%, in addition to airdrops from many of the launching protocols. This makes it extremely attractive for people to lock up their $LUNA to stake
@prism_protocol will also be another attractive avenue, as locking up your $LUNA gives you access to pLUNa and yLUNA derivatives, giving the user access to liquidation-free leverage or staking benefits with no lockup period.
With @NexusProtocol, more people will also be willing to borrow against their $LUNA in Anchor given no risk of liquidation and enhanced farming strategies available. All of these provide more opportunities to use and lock $LUNA and decreasing circulating supply
Beyond this, I believe if the bull run continues we are going to continue to see a massive L1 battle as chains increase their adoption and development. I think that out of all the L1's, $LUNA is best set up to benefit from this. I'll explain why
If the bull run does continue, we are going to see retail speculators come to the market in droves, which are completely different market participant to those heavily involved in the space. They latch on to simple narratives without understanding underlying fundamentals
The last time we saw immense retail speculation, they gravitating towards deflationary dog coins whose value proposition was the more people buy in, the less supply there is. Sounds pretty similar to the value proposition of $LUNA doesn't it?
As retail finds their way back into the market looking for a more legitimate investment, they will be able to easily identify with $LUNA's narrative. More $UST used = less $LUNA supply = price go up. I'm not sure any other L1 has such a simple narrative for retail to latch onto
We also have something very unique to other L1's: The best community on CT. As retail comes to the space to ask questions, there will be a storm of $LUNA-tics there to help give information, clarify concerns, dispel FUD, and carry on the simple narrative above.
So due the immense $UST adoption coming, the decrease of $LUNA's supply from protocols that incentive locking them up, and a very simple narrative for the mass amount of retail about to enter the space, $LUNA is set up for a supply squeeze like we've never see before 🚀. (NFA)
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Another important distinction when it comes to the differences between $ETH and $LUNA, $UST has to do with the constant friction between the holders of the value token and the actual users of the ecosystem.
As the $ETH network gets used by more and more people, that congestion causes problems for those using the blockchain. The gas fees become incredibly high, the token value fluctuates making it hard to plan for paying the gas, more failed transactions, longer wait times, etc.
But when the experience for users gets really bad, the holders of the token accrue a lot of benefit. Due to EIP-1559 more has fees means more burning of the supply, more usage causes an increase in the price of the token through network value and the necessity to pay for gas