Thread by @dylan522p

Report from DigiTimes stating TSMC is going to negotiate with equipment and materials suppliers about 15%+ price cuts!
Simultaneously they are doing 20% price increases.
The latter is likely, I don't think the prior is possible.
Explanation👇
$AMAT $ASML $LRCX $KLAC $TOELY $TSM

These SemiCap firms have a vested interest in seeing competitors such as Samsung $SSNLF, Intel $INTC, $UMC, GlobalFoundries, SMIC, etc.
Customer concentration is bad for suppliers!
How can TSMC get price cuts agreed when SemiCap can deprioritize them and sell everything anyways?

$ASML and $KLAC have crazy lead times across the board! $LRCX $KLAC $TOELY all have some tools with 1 year or longer lead times
TSMC could muscle these cuts in when everyone has extra supply and play the various etch and depo players against each other but right now?
No Way Jose!

The materials supply chain is even tighter. There is a shortage of raw wafers, a 3 company oligopoly.
How is TSMC going to convince GlobalWafers to sell them polished wafers for a lower price when TSMC needs them anyways?
There isn't an alternative!
Same applies to photoresist.

I doubt TSMC will be too successful in this attempt.
Raising prices while demanding price cuts from suppliers who short on supply anyways is gonna piss people off!
Don't want them to be scared of TSMC fab hegemony yet. If they try this now, what do they try in a down cycle😱