Doing what we already know how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. But every time we create something new, we go from 0 to 1.
Humans are distinguished from other species by our ability to work miracles. We call these miracles technology.
Successful people find value in unexpected places, and they do this by thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas.
"What important truth do very few people agree with you on"
Conventional beliefs only ever come to appear arbitrary and wrong in retrospect; whenever one collapses, we call the old belief a bubble.
The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.
How much of the world is actually monopolistic? How much is truly competitive?... There's an enormous difference between perfect competition and monopoly, and most businesses are much closer to one extreme than we commonly realize.
Monopolies drive progress because the promise of years or even decades of monopoly profits provides powerful incentive to innovate.
All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition.
For a company to be valuable it must grow and *endure*... Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn't. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now?
If you truly want to make something new, the act of creation is far more important than the old industries that might not like what you create. Don't disrupt.
The strange history of the Baby Boom produced a generation of indefinite optimists so used to effortless progress that they feel entitled to it... Since tracked careers worked well for them, they can't imagine that they won't work well for their kids, too.
The prospect of being lonely but right - dedicating your life to something that no one else believes in - is already hard. The prospect of being lonely and wrong can be unbearable.
Americans fear technology in the near future because they see it as a replay of the globalization of the near past. But the situations are very different: people compete for jobs and resources; computers compete for neither.
Social entrepreneurs aim to combine the best of both worlds and "do well by doing good." Usually they end up doing neither.
Progress isn't held back by some difference between corporate greed and nonprofit goodness; we're held back by the sameness of both. Whatever is good enough to receive applause from all audiences can only be conventional. Doing something different is what's truly good for society
A Scapegoat
The single greatest danger for a founder is to become so certain of his own myth that he loses his mind. But an equally insidious danger for every business is to lose all sense of myth and mistake disenchantment for wisdom.
Nobody wants to say it out loud because the Stripe mafia, but the primary reason for lower employee costs at Adyen vs Stripe is because the people running Stripe run it with VC dollars and owners run Adyen.
Does that explain all the differences? No of course not but it is absolutely one of the most important aspects of the company. Watching Stripe hire and fire during the bubble vs Adyen patiently waiting is absolutely core to employee cost differential.
Lastly bottoms up disruption mental model doesn't apply in payments. You're never going to sign up enough SMBs to get scale, you sign up ecom aggregators like Shopify, substack, Etsy, eBay etc... and what does that sale smotion look like? Exact same as enterprise? Would love to know why you think this is wrong @benthompson
TikTok ban is great example of LT vs. St thinking. ST traders would likely buy but in no way is it a LT positive for $META.
Banning TT will only modestly increase reels consumption over maybe a year or two. Why modestly? Because it only modestly (if any?) decreased consumption thus far.
What actually matters is TT ushered in SFV. SFV kneecaped Facebook. TT proved the bears right. Social graph value went to zero as the AI algo took over. LT TT ban doesn't change the fact that SFV is a no moat capital intensive biz which will see multiple new entrants.
Pretty wild how political Naval, someone who claims to be peaceful and open minded is. One of the smartest people I've ever learned from, whose brain utterly destroyed by politics. It truly is hard to be the person he pretends to be, even he can't do it!
Naval the Nutcase.
"Impossible to understand macro economics" - Naval
Yet here I have five sentences explaining the current inflation paradigm that's absolutely incorrect and based on my political leanings rather than logic or without the nuance of complexity.
"Interpreting ratings as a due diligence mechanism is intuitive but anachronistic... Ratings serve to mitigate information asymmetries between institutional investors, clients, and regulators through independent risk estimates" $SPGI $MCO h/t @rhunterh
"When ratings drastically change, market actors are forced to make hasty changes to their portfolios to adhere to the stipulations of the contracts and regulations that bind them."
"any competitor able to offer more reliably accurate indicators of credit risk should have the potential to supplant the Big Three. But reliably accurate indicators of credit risk are a mirage... it is not possible to accurately account for all possible contingencies"