"Historically, only ~20% of Google searches were monetizable. With Al-driven personalization and intent inference, this funnel is expanding."

"Google TAM seems to be growing faster than ChatGPT is taking share"

This is obviously incorrect @benthompson

Nobody wants to say it out loud because the Stripe mafia, but the primary reason for lower employee costs at Adyen vs Stripe is because the people running Stripe run it with VC dollars and owners run Adyen. Does that explain all the differences? No of course not but it is absolutely one of the most important aspects of the company. Watching Stripe hire and fire during the bubble vs Adyen patiently waiting is absolutely core to employee cost differential.

@the10thmanbb on Lumine spin

the10thmanbb.com/investment-ide…

$CSU In late-2020, Volaris created a new brand specifically for their communications and media businesses called Lumine.

"The long term is {not} a series of short terms" This is why estimates don't matter.

TikTok ban is great example of LT vs. St thinking. ST traders would likely buy but in no way is it a LT positive for $META. Banning TT will only modestly increase reels consumption over maybe a year or two. Why modestly? Because it only modestly (if any?) decreased consumption thus far.

Pretty wild how political Naval, someone who claims to be peaceful and open minded is. One of the smartest people I've ever learned from, whose brain utterly destroyed by politics. It truly is hard to be the person he pretends to be, even he can't do it!

Naval the Nutcase. "Impossible to understand macro economics" - Naval

Yet here I have five sentences explaining the current inflation paradigm that's absolutely incorrect and based on my political leanings rather than logic or without the nuance of complexity.

"Interpreting ratings as a due diligence mechanism is intuitive but anachronistic... Ratings serve to mitigate information asymmetries between institutional investors, clients, and regulators through independent risk estimates" $SPGI $MCO h/t @rhunterh

phenomenalworld.org/analysis/sover… "When ratings drastically change, market actors are forced to make hasty changes to their portfolios to adhere to the stipulations of the contracts and regulations that bind them."

Thread on $AVLR

You can tell whether someone is an amateur by how they react to losses and most importantly the losses of others (note, you can be a professional with $1,000, $1 million, or $1 billion). People who invest real money with real skin in the game have a different view on “losing money”. Ideally we are robust and mistakes are just information (learning experiences), your portfolio should love mistakes if they are small and you can learn from them.

Adapt (didn't love the book)

A few quotes Biologists have a word for the way in which solutions emerge from failure: evolution

Re-reading Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle

h/t Han Lue for the Hard Copy "The Capital Cycle analysis/approach is used to understand how changes in the amount of capital employed within an industry are likely to impact future returns. How is the competitive position of a company affected by changes in the industries supply side?"

Longevity Simplified

"All I Want To Know Is Where I'm Going To Die So I'll Never Go There" - Charlie Munger

This book does a good job telling you {where} you will die. Good news is you don't have to go there. 1/2 to 3/4 of you who read this tweet will go there anyways. It's Simple:

1) Push and Pull Heavy Things
2) Create a Caloric Deficit
3) Get Sleep
4) Eat Real Food
5) Move often, throughout the day
6) Socialize
7) Have a Sense of Purpose

$CSU Investor Day Highlights Start of with a eulogy for the SaaS bubble

"Just like airlines"

Is there an Adult or Child running your company? $FOUR CEO: Adult ☑

"This makes sense, I understand how to run a company during these times. What didn't make sense to me last year was why 50x revenue multiples... I mean even with buybacks going on, we still have over $1 billion in cash right now. We're profitable."

$AVLR

"our focus on the year is to sustain a high rate of revenue growth and couple that with an 🚨 improving margin profile 🚨 " 🚀 🚀 🚀 $AVLR will lay out a three year margin ramp at their investor day; 50% FCF margins here we come 🚀 🚀 🚀

You don't get the alpha of the stock you own. You get the alpha that your mentality allows you. Getting shaken out of a stock usually comes with a negative connotation, it shouldn't. If you are looking for businesses that you can own for the rest of your life and #NeverSell the sooner you move on the better. In a long enough time frame the market will find your uncle point on any stock you aren't destined to own.

$AVLR is the highest conviction idea I have had in a couple years and (finally) one of my largest positions. In the US midmarket they are essentially the only competitive offering. $AVLR guides their revenue to grow 20% to 25% over the long-term and I believe they can likely do that without moving out of the U.S. mid-market tax returns and filing business where they are single digit penetrated.

How to look at the risks of vaccines

Same people who didn't use precautionary principle for COVID in March 2020 now using it for vaccines = brain not working.

Re-read Zero to One

Fantastic book and worth reading twice.

amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes… Doing what we already know how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. But every time we create something new, we go from 0 to 1.

Good book, worth a read for those interested in payments.

Payments Systems in the U.S. - A Guide for the Payments Professional
amazon.com/dp/0982789742/… Open Loop Payments System

"all of their end party customers are immediately accessible to other intermediaries participating in the payments system"

$ADYEN Shareholder letter
H1 2021

adyen.com/dam/jcr:2008a4… North American Revenue +80%

Good stablecoins, a protocol for money, and digital wallets: the formula to fix our broken payment system $FB $V $MA

medium.com/@davidmarcus/g…

https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1427999431920603140

"in the last four quarters we enabled more than $100 billion in payment volume"