Can governments affect company value? Of course, in both positive and negative ways. As the Chinese government cracks down on its big tech companies, I revisit the many consequences of government action or inaction for the value of a company. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
As the Chinese economy has risen to become the second largest in the world, its equity markets have also risen, with Chinese tech taking the lead in the last decade. Tencent & Alibaba sit on top of China's market cap tables at the start of 2021. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
The biggest Chinese tech companies range the spectrum in terms of business, but they all (a) benefit from big markets (China + Disruption) (b) are tailored to Chinese consumers (c) are corporate governance nightmares and (d) have Beijing as a key player. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
The tech crackdown surprised investors, used to viewing Beijing as a net plus, and it has altered the calculus, making it a net minus, for value. My estimates of value for $BABA, $TCEHY, $JD and $DIDI, with government as net minus, benefactor or adversary. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
While Alibaba and Tencent, both look under valued in the net minus (base case) scenario, I prefer Tencent for its more diverse business mix, the power of its WeChat platform and not having a lightning rod (like Jack Ma) as founder. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
China's crack down on tech, in my view, has nothing to do with its stated reasons of protecting consumer privacy and increasing competition, and everything to do with maintaining control over data and companies. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
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In 2025, there were multiple news stories (tariffs, US government ratings downgrade, US government shutdown and Fed independence) that depleted trust in US institutions, and I look at how that played out in bond, currency, precious metal & crypto markets. bit.ly/4q3y6SC
The bond market, where buyers are trusting governments not to default and to protect buying power (by controlling inflation), took the "loss of trust" new stories in stride, with US treasuries flat (20 & 30 yr) or lower (10 yr & below) for the year. bit.ly/4q3y6SC
One reason for rates not moving may be that the Moody's downgrade was not news to the market, which had already priced in that expectation, given that S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023) had downgraded earlier. The sovereign CDS spread for the US dropped in 2025. bit.ly/4q3y6SC
It is the end of the first full week of 2026, and as has been my practice every year for the last 33 years, I have updated the data on my webpage, reflecting the 2025 financial filings of publicly traded firms and updated market information. bit.ly/3YtTCVx
My data universe includes 48,516 publicly traded companies, listed across global markets, and my datasets include global numbers as well as for sub-groups. bit.ly/3YtTCVx
I report on the industry averages on a range of variables (about 200 in all), reflecting data that I use in corporate financial, valuation and investing analysis, striving for consistency and transparency. bit.ly/3YtTCVx
I am on sabbatical this academic year, and while I will not be teaching my corporate finance & valuation classes at NYU in Spring 2026, the full versions of my Spring 2025 classes, with lectures, class material and tests/exams are accessible online. bit.ly/3Y87KDx
NYU offers certificate versions of my valuation, corporate finance and investment philosophy classes, with valuation in both fall and spring, corporate finance in the fall and investment philosophies in the spring. execed.stern.nyu.edu/collections/ta…
If the NYU price tag is off-putting or budget-busting, I offer free versions of all three of these classes, as well as four others, with recorded lectures and supporting material. Since they are free, they come with a money-back guarantee. bit.ly/3XFnMoj
Nvidia breached the $5 trillion market cap a few weeks ago, and even after giving back a chunk, it is one of a dozen companies with market caps exceeding a trillion. Overpriced stocks or Business marvels? bit.ly/3Ycei3W
Debates about over pricing quickly devolve into shouting matches between one side that argues that a trillion dollars is too high a price for any company and the other pointing to a changed world order for business. bit.ly/3Ycei3W
Rather than take that path, I use an intrinsic value framework to reverse engineer the revenues that the company will need to generate to break even at its current market cap, hopefully creating the basis for a more business-based debate about value. bit.ly/3Ycei3W
Channeling Greenspan from the 1990s, Jerome Powell described US equities as “fairly highly valued” which may be Fed code for stocks are in a bubble. I wrote this post to examine whether markets are overpriced, and if so, whether action is warranted. bit.ly/4gXOscz
Looking at the first three quarters of 2025, there is a disconnect between the news of economic disruption and costs, and what equity indices in the US have been doing. Markets clearly are at odds with experts and economists. bit.ly/4gXOscz
Taking a deeper dive into US equities, and looking at market performance, by sector, this is a market that has spread its wealth unevenly, with technology and communication services on the upside, and health care and consumer staples lagging. bit.ly/4gXOscz
Imitation may be the best form of flattery, but not if it is used in a scam. In response to an Instagram scam, where I (allegedly) invite people to invest with me, I cycled through surprise, anger and frustration, before settling on curiosity & graded it. bit.ly/4mtKKcg
I start by describing why I leave material on open access (not altruism, but selfishness) and how you can find any content I have created (written, spoken) online on one of four platforms. bit.ly/4mtKKcg
The first is my webpage, where you can find all material related to my teaching (my two regular and four ancillary classes), data (industry averages), spreadsheets/tools, books and papers. bit.ly/4mxqvKR