Can governments affect company value? Of course, in both positive and negative ways. As the Chinese government cracks down on its big tech companies, I revisit the many consequences of government action or inaction for the value of a company. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
As the Chinese economy has risen to become the second largest in the world, its equity markets have also risen, with Chinese tech taking the lead in the last decade. Tencent & Alibaba sit on top of China's market cap tables at the start of 2021. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
The biggest Chinese tech companies range the spectrum in terms of business, but they all (a) benefit from big markets (China + Disruption) (b) are tailored to Chinese consumers (c) are corporate governance nightmares and (d) have Beijing as a key player. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
The tech crackdown surprised investors, used to viewing Beijing as a net plus, and it has altered the calculus, making it a net minus, for value. My estimates of value for $BABA, $TCEHY, $JD and $DIDI, with government as net minus, benefactor or adversary. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
While Alibaba and Tencent, both look under valued in the net minus (base case) scenario, I prefer Tencent for its more diverse business mix, the power of its WeChat platform and not having a lightning rod (like Jack Ma) as founder. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
China's crack down on tech, in my view, has nothing to do with its stated reasons of protecting consumer privacy and increasing competition, and everything to do with maintaining control over data and companies. bit.ly/3BvzPHx
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Imitation may be the best form of flattery, but not if it is used in a scam. In response to an Instagram scam, where I (allegedly) invite people to invest with me, I cycled through surprise, anger and frustration, before settling on curiosity & graded it. bit.ly/4mtKKcg
I start by describing why I leave material on open access (not altruism, but selfishness) and how you can find any content I have created (written, spoken) online on one of four platforms. bit.ly/4mtKKcg
The first is my webpage, where you can find all material related to my teaching (my two regular and four ancillary classes), data (industry averages), spreadsheets/tools, books and papers. bit.ly/4mxqvKR
In the last few years, MicroStrategy has become a Bitcoin SPAC, with investors attributing savant-like status to Michael Saylor. Its success has led some to push companies to shift their cash into bitcoin. As a general principle, this is a bad idea, but there are four carveouts. bit.ly/40TEjXG
The reasons for holding cash vary depending on where a company is in the life cycle from survival for young growth firms to youth serum for mature firms to liquidation manager for declining firms. bit.ly/40TEjXG
For all of these reasons, publicly traded firms held more than $11 trillion in cash as of June 2025; US firms held about $2.5 trillion in cash. Much of that cash is invested in close-to-riskless and liquid investments, earning low returns. bit.ly/40TEjXG
Most investment lessons are directed at long-only investors in publicly traded stocks & bonds, with cash as a buffer. It ignores vast swathes of the investing universe, including private businesses, short strategies & non-traded assets. bit.ly/4l6DOSp
These ignored investments are what comprise the alternative investing universe, and in the last two decades, they have been sold relentlessly to portfolio managers, on the promise that they will yield better risk/return trade offs. bit.ly/4l6DOSp
The first pitch for alternative investing is based on "low" correlations with traded stocks and bonds, where adding them on to a primarily stock/bond portfolio will generate diversification benefits. bit.ly/4l6DOSp
In my eighth data update, I look at the use of debt at businesses in 2024 to fund operations, with fictional, real and frictional reasons all causing differences in debt usage across sectors and regions. bit.ly/3D5jnnR
The debt versus equity choice begins with an understanding of the criteria that separate them - contractual vs residual cash flows, tax benefits and control of management. bit.ly/3D5jnnR
The illusory reasons for borrowing money include increasing ROE and debt being cheaper than equity, and for not borrowing are lower net income, lower bond ratings and debt's higher explicit costs. bit.ly/3D5jnnR
In my sixth data update for 2025, I move from macro topics (interest rates, risk premiums) to micro and look at why hurdle rates matter, what goes into them and how to estimate them, using my estimates of costs of capital across global firms to illustrate. bit.ly/4hOFmy3
If you own or run a business, you need hurdle rates to decide whether and how much to invest, how best to fund yourself and how much cash you can take out of the business. That is corporate finance in a nutshell, and the cost of capital is everywhere, bit.ly/4hOFmy3
In investing and valuation, the cost of capital reenters the stage, as the risk adjusted discount rate you use in valuing a business, based on its cash flows, or in the background, when you price companies. bit.ly/4hOFmy3
In my valuation writing/teaching, I argue that a good valuation is a bridge between story and numbers, and how stories can change overnight. DeepSeek's entry into the AI business has changed the AI story, but is it a break, a change or a shift? aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/01/deepse…
The AI story, pre-DeepSeek, was built around a lucrative end market for AI products/services, and high entry costs (investments in computing power & data), leading to a profitable, big business, with a (few) winners collection huge spoils. aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/01/deepse…
The pre-DeepSeek AI story played out in markets, pushing up the pricing of players in the space, from firms building the architecture (chips, power) to firms aiming for the product/service market (from Palantir to big tech). aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/01/deepse…