Douglas H. Bellemore’s six characteristics for success as aggressive investors…
Source: The Strategic Investor, 1963
Patience
“The aggressive investor should not expect quick results… Success depends, in large measure, on the ability to select undervalued situations not presently recognised by the majority of investors and to wait for expected developments to provide capital gains…”
Courage
“The investor must have solid convictions and the courage and confidence emanating from them - that is, courage, at times, to ignore those who disagree…Decision-making ability…is vital to success in investing…[this] assumes judgments are right more often than wrong.”
Intelligence
“…the aggressive investor must possess average intelligence, but by no means does he need to be a genius… Common sense - impossible to test except by experience - is equally important in judgment decisions… i.e… the practical ability to evaluate situations.”
Emotional Stability
“…it is needed to prevent the investor from being engulfed in waves of optimism and pessimism that periodically sweep over Wall Street. Moreover, it is required to separate the facts from the entangled web of human emotions.”
Hard Work
“…an aggressive investor must do thorough research… He must be knowledgable about the company in which he considers making an investment, the industry, the position of the company in the industry and the place and future of that industry in the economy as a whole.”
Concentration
“While the conservative investor relies extensively upon diversification to minimize risks, his aggressive counterpart must sacrifice wide diversification if his portfolio is significantly to outperform the general market.”
“There are no short cuts to successful investment for aggressive investors. To earn really sizable capital gains requires substantially more effort, patience, courage, and intelligence than that required of the conservative investor. It requires much more on all of these counts.”
“In fact, many of the personal qualities for successful business management are the same as those for an aggressive investor.”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ Give people the freedom to innovate: hierarchy helps predictability & control, but when you seek to “recruit the most intelligent, innovative, talented people on Earth, telling them to sit at a desk and do what they’re told obliterates 99 percent of their value.”
2/ The customer is first: “Every company will tell you that “the customer is boss,” but here that statement has weight. There’s no red tape stopping you from figuring out for yourself what our customers want, and then giving it to them.”
The foundations of the philosophy of Scout Capital were the investment values of:
1. Quality 2. Misunderstanding 3. Self-knowledge
Key aspects of quality:
- Unit economics
- Returns on capital
- Appropriate leverage
- FCF conversion
- Market share
- Margin resiliency
- Moat
- L-T growth potential
- Management
Why a quality focus? Reduces the frequency of blow ups & these types of biz often have tailwinds.
Misunderstanding:
“However appealing the business, if it’s widely recognized as such by others, that will be reflected in the share price. That’s why misunderstanding has to play a role.”
It is important to learn the right lessons from both mistakes [commission & ommission] & things that go well. I often find people focus their learning on mistakes & less on the latter or learn the wrong lessons or see patterns that don’t exist
Some thoughts on trying to learn...
1/ Missing out on something with a high optical valuation... the lesson is usually not ‘be willing to pay any price’ or ‘quality at any cost’ it is ‘why were your numbers / expectations too low’, ‘what did you miss about the business’
2/ When you lose money because something bad happens to the fundamentals, try to break things down:
- Was there a mistake of analysis before buying?
- Did you miss a change after you bought?
- Was it a portfolio mgmt error in not cutting & putting capital elsewhere?
- Bad luck?
15 things that I think about when trying not to sell a good L-T idea:
1. Be prepared to give up P&L in the S-T, L-T winners are often volatile
2. Monitor consistency between narrative & fundamentals. Imagine the destination & the key drivers. Use patterns to help navigate
3. Understand why something is persistently mispriced (confidence in a mispricing means you are less likely to sell)
4. Have a well balanced portfolio of great cos, never let a position become so big it owns you / can take you out of the game
5. Form independent views and rigorously test your thinking by yourself, a lot of people will have opinions about the future without knowing much about a situation, you need a strong filter... sometimes not listening is a good thing...
Uniqueness, hard to replicate / imitate is such an important concept...
Helmer: There must be some aspect of the Power conditions which prevents existing & potential competitors, both direct & functional, from engaging in the sort of value-destroying arbitrage Intel experienced with its memory business. This is the duration aspect of Power [7 Powers]
Kay: Successful strategy is rarely copycat strategy. It is based on doing well what rivals cannot do or cannot do readily, not what they can do or are already doing. [Foundations of Corporate Success]