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The Honest Broker Profile picture
@RogerPielkeJr
Sep 2, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Remarkable detail about NYC infrastructure:
Sewer system designed to accommodate a 5-year storm, one with a 20% chance of occurring in any year

Like the Texas freeze, events are exposing poor infrastructure & limited capacity to deal with rare events

www1.nyc.gov/assets/em/down… Image
Flooding in NYC is highly correlated with sewer infrastructure (look at Queens)
mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10… Image
Honestly, if I am a NY politician, given these facts, all I'd be talking about is climate change
No one in NYC gov't should be surprised by flooding

Hamidi et al 2018. Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study. SERRA 32:2293-2308.
link.springer.com/article/10.100… Image
NY and NJ are hotspots for inland flooding from tropical cyclones

Villarini et al 2014. North Atlantic tropical cyclones and US flooding. BAMS 95:1381-1388.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/… Image
NYC days with rainfall >4in 1900 to 2010
A >4in rainfall in one day was a 1 in ~3 year event in NYC
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report
nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11… Image
"Extreme rainfall measured at Central Park has
significant year-to-year variation such that no statistically significant trends in extreme rainfall can be
identified (Horton et al., 2015)"
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report
researchgate.net/profile/Jorge-…
The effects of climate change on extreme precip were said to be not detectable in the 2020s, in NYC Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report

So if this week's floods show clear fingerprints of climate change, then the mayor of New York is right to say that this event was unexpected Image
Interestingly the current NYC Storm Water Resiliency Plan discusses plans for an extreme rainfall event of 3.5 inches falling in 1 hour 9this week say 3.15 in one hour), which it defines with a return period of 100 yrs
www1.nyc.gov/assets/orr/pdf… Image
So there are mixed messages here

A. This week's storm was the result of climate change - in which case policy makers were not warned

B. This week's storm was a ~100-yr flood indistinguishable from natural variability, in which case policy makers were unprepared

Pick one
For politicians, there's obvious incentives to pick A

For activist scientists trying to sell the NYC flood as a reason for broader emissions policy, a collateral effect is to provide cover for politicians who dropped the ball in local NYC flood/stormwater policy & infrastructure
Why NYC Is Still So Unprepared For Flash Floods wnyc.org/story/why-nyc-… via @WNYC

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jul 18
1/3
Climate science is broken

I provided PNAS with irrefutable evidence that a paper it published used a fatally flawed “dataset” compiled by interns for corporate marketing

I asked for a retraction

PNAS investigated & found no problems at all with the dataset

The PNAS reply belowImage
Image
I documented how the “dataset” was created (including contributions of two of my former students)

It was never intended for scientific research, just for selling insurance products

In the next Tweet I’ll link to my post with all of the details

If climate science cannot pass this simple test, it has a serious problemImage
Full analysis

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/apples-orang…
Read 4 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 23
I have been digging into methodological and data errors in Grinsted et al. 2019, some of which you can see in the thread below

This nerdy thread on US hurricane loss data documents how bad data gets created (surely accidentally) . . .
A time series of base (i.e., current-year) loses was first compiled from annual reports published in the Monthly Weather Review by Chris Landsea in 1989 for 1949-1989

I extended the data using same methods to 1996

Chris and I extended back to 1900 for Pielke and Landsea 1998 Image
Then, Pielke et al. 2008 extend the dataset to 2005, again using the same methods

The heavy lifting was done by my then-student Joel Gratz

Joel graduated and went to an insurance company called ICAT . . . Image
Read 5 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 22
Last month I revealed based on files part of the public record of the Michael Mann trial how Mann coordinated peer review of a paper of mine to ensure that it "would not see the light of day"

I only had a snippet of the relevant Mann email

Now I have the whole thing

And JFC... Image
First
New: the editor of GRL, Jay Familigetti, originally sent our submission to Mann!

That's right
A paper by Pielke & @ClimateAudit was sent to Mann to peer review

Mann wisely didn't accept but instead recommended hostile reviewers so that "it would not see the light of day" Image
@ClimateAudit Mann emails his partners Caspar Amann (NCAR) and Gavin Schmidt (NASA) to express his glee that this gives him an opportunity to cause harm

"Pielke Jr has finally made his bed!!" Image
Read 9 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 20
🧵
"The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s"

Take that 645 miles/year to the next Tweet...

gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/upl…
The US has 240,000 miles of high voltage transmission capacity

An expansion of 645 miles/year is just about 0.3%/yr

Take that 0.3%/year HV grid expansion to the next Tweet
The Princeton study (@JesseJenkins) used to promote the Inflation Reduction Act claimed the HV grid has been expanding at a rate of 1% per year based on a newsletter from JP Morgan

That 1% is >3x greater than actual recent grid expansion rates of 0.3%

repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_IR…
Image
Read 7 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Feb 15
SpringerNature held off sending my submission for peer review because:

"We thought it prudent to seek advice on the potential risks of publishing claims that may appear to criticise the actions of government bodies"

Now under review

Read it here:
osf.io/preprints/soca…
Image
I was only informed of the evaluation of my paper for political risk after that review took place

This is a plain vanilla policy evaluation, but that should not matter

So in addition to passing peer review it had to pass political review

Just when you think you've seen it all
I was just asked if I am worried that commenting on this publicly might hurt my paper's chances of being published

Ha! Simply having my name on a paper probably does that ;-)

But sunshine is far more important
Read 4 tweets
The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jan 26
Biden: LNG exports—>historic hurricanes & floods
But is that true?
🧵⤵️
How about hurricanes?
Not increasing Image
Well, what about major hurricanes?
Not increasing Image
Read 8 tweets

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