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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
@chrischirp
Sep 3, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
THREAD on Child Vax:
Interviewed on @BBCNews about the JCVI decision not to vaccinate 12-15 year olds.
This was my initial reaction - that it was out of step with most other similar countries. And that they do not seem to have considered long covid at all. 1/6
@BBCNews I explained that many more kids would now get covid who didn't need to, causing more education disruption, more illness and more transmission. 2/6
I also said that it just wasn't good enough to say things were finely balanced - we needed to see evidence behind their decision. 3/6
At about the same time, JCVI did publish their reasoning. It is very very sparse. BUT they *do* find overall benefit in averted hospitalisations & ICU admissions!
(even if they don't show the working behind their calculations) 4/6

gov.uk/government/pub…
Myocarditis impact from covid is not considered BUT they assume 93 hospitalisations/million averted compared to between 12-34 cases of myocarditis from vaccines.

Long covid *isn't even mentioned*. Long term impacts of covid on the brain and other organs *are not mentioned*. 5/6
Finally, I don't think this is transparent enough to support such an outlier decision. They published / cited far more careful analysis in determining their original vaccine priority groups and delaying the 2nd dose (both decisions I supported). They must do that now too. 6/6
PS Please listen to Meir Ruben who advises Israeli government talking today about the really high number of infections in kids there right now. And *pleading* with govts to vaccinate their children.

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Apr 2
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6 Image
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*

It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
In fact hospital testing has been steady since the change in testing a year ago (only symptomatic patients get tested now).

The % of people PCR tested who have Covid is 4% - there is no evidence that there are loads of symptomatic people in hospital being missed. 3/6
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Read 6 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Dec 21, 2023
Beyond a shadow of a doubt that England is in its biggest Covid wave for well over a year now, with latest ONS infection survey results published.

I've written about it here
1/7 tinyurl.com/ru7h3m28
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The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.

Read all about it here!
2/7
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
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Read 8 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Nov 30, 2023
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.

1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?

A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.

1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.

Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
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2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?

A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Nov 30, 2023
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"

Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed

Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"

1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"

"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"

"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"

2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"

"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"

3/16
Read 17 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Aug 31, 2023
THREAD: England Covid update

TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.

Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.

Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12


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However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.

So what could happen next? 3/12 Image
Read 14 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Aug 29, 2023
THREAD: Various new or expanded cancer screening programmes have been announced recently and coverage has been overwhelmingly on the pros. But there are cons too.

So let's explore some of the pros and cons...

expansion of my @guardian article


1/24 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…



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First a screening recap : a relatively simple test that flags potential cause for concern. If flagged, you are offered more, gold standard, testing, often in a hospital (e.g. MRI scans, blood tests, other diagnostic procs). If those +Ve too, you are offered cancer treatment. 2/24
The benefits are clear: If you have undiagnosed serious cancer, screening can save your life if it leads to earlier treatment.

In this case massively beneficial to you *and* to NHS which can save on longer, more expensive treatment from later diagnosis 3/24
Read 26 tweets

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