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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
@chrischirp
Sep 3, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
THREAD on Child Vax:
Interviewed on @BBCNews about the JCVI decision not to vaccinate 12-15 year olds.
This was my initial reaction - that it was out of step with most other similar countries. And that they do not seem to have considered long covid at all. 1/6
@BBCNews I explained that many more kids would now get covid who didn't need to, causing more education disruption, more illness and more transmission. 2/6
I also said that it just wasn't good enough to say things were finely balanced - we needed to see evidence behind their decision. 3/6
At about the same time, JCVI did publish their reasoning. It is very very sparse. BUT they *do* find overall benefit in averted hospitalisations & ICU admissions!
(even if they don't show the working behind their calculations) 4/6

gov.uk/government/pub…
Myocarditis impact from covid is not considered BUT they assume 93 hospitalisations/million averted compared to between 12-34 cases of myocarditis from vaccines.

Long covid *isn't even mentioned*. Long term impacts of covid on the brain and other organs *are not mentioned*. 5/6
Finally, I don't think this is transparent enough to support such an outlier decision. They published / cited far more careful analysis in determining their original vaccine priority groups and delaying the 2nd dose (both decisions I supported). They must do that now too. 6/6
PS Please listen to Meir Ruben who advises Israeli government talking today about the really high number of infections in kids there right now. And *pleading* with govts to vaccinate their children.

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Jul 23
THREAD:
I wrote about Baroness Hallett's Inquiry Module 1 report for @bmj_latest .

She found that there was *never* a plan to keep a pandemic death toll down - I discuss this and what it means going foward.

Main points below: 1/14 Image
The headline most seen is that the UK planned for the wrong pandemic.

While it is true that was far too narrow a focus on a flu pandemic, that is not the most telling bit.

To me the most telling bit, is what the plan did NOT do 2/14


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The issue is less the wrong disease, but that there was never a plan to prevent one at all – of any disease type.

The plan was *never* about reducing the number of pandemic deaths. 3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Jul 19
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.

I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.

TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.

This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11 Image
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.

Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11 Image
Read 12 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Jul 3
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....

TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point

let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.

The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.

Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25 Image
Read 38 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Jun 4
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
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I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3 Image
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
May 8
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.

TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots

This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9 Image
Read 11 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Apr 2
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6 Image
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*

It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
In fact hospital testing has been steady since the change in testing a year ago (only symptomatic patients get tested now).

The % of people PCR tested who have Covid is 4% - there is no evidence that there are loads of symptomatic people in hospital being missed. 3/6
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Read 6 tweets

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