Incentives drive the world.
This concept is frequently cited, but rarely productized.
I'm fascinated by how prediction markets can change that.
A few thoughts ππΌππΌππΌ
This concept is frequently cited, but rarely productized.
I'm fascinated by how prediction markets can change that.
A few thoughts ππΌππΌππΌ
We live in a world where "truth" has become highly controversial and debatable.
One idea is to financially incentivize the crowd to identify the truth.
This type of mechanism can essentially tell people to "put up or shut up."
One idea is to financially incentivize the crowd to identify the truth.
This type of mechanism can essentially tell people to "put up or shut up."
Information markets like those on @PolymarketHQ let users make a return for correctly forecasting future events.
If you truly believe something is going to happen, you can risk capital on it.
If you're right, you win. If you're wrong, you lose.
The market is the referee.
If you truly believe something is going to happen, you can risk capital on it.
If you're right, you win. If you're wrong, you lose.
The market is the referee.
Compare an information market to a centralized third-party arbiter of truth like the media.
Corporate news outlets have competing incentives such as writing stories that drive clicks/readers.
They don't win or lose from accuracy on a single story or opinion. No skin in the game
Corporate news outlets have competing incentives such as writing stories that drive clicks/readers.
They don't win or lose from accuracy on a single story or opinion. No skin in the game
Information markets are the ultimate manifestation of "skin in the game."
Traders of information markets only make a return for predicting accurately.
If market participants are wrong, they lose money.
Truth and financial incentives are completely aligned.
Traders of information markets only make a return for predicting accurately.
If market participants are wrong, they lose money.
Truth and financial incentives are completely aligned.
New digital technologies, which empower everything from decentralization to pseudonymity to censorship resistance, create an inflection point in information markets.
The idea of 24/7/365 trading of information is now not only possible, but becoming the standard.
The idea of 24/7/365 trading of information is now not only possible, but becoming the standard.
I have been spending time with the Polymarket team and they were telling me about how much more accurate information markets were around COVID and the Olympics.
I asked them to write a guest post about it. You can read the details here.
pomp.substack.com/p/prediction-mβ¦
I asked them to write a guest post about it. You can read the details here.
pomp.substack.com/p/prediction-mβ¦
If you're interested in these ideas, I recommend checking out The Wisdom of Crowds.
amazon.com/dp/B000FCKC3I/β¦
amazon.com/dp/B000FCKC3I/β¦
This is a great overview of how the make-up of the crowd is a great indicator of the effectiveness of the crowd.
The more global and diverse, the better.
The more global and diverse, the better.
The best information market that I have found recently is @PolymarketHQ.
I'm not an investor but liked it so much that I agreed to allow them to advertise on podcast.
If you're into predictions and pursuing truth, highly suggest checking it out.
polymarket.com
I'm not an investor but liked it so much that I agreed to allow them to advertise on podcast.
If you're into predictions and pursuing truth, highly suggest checking it out.
polymarket.com
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
γ
