A majority of the world will speak English by the end of the century. This will create a new global identity. It will be the triumph of the Anywheres.
Why? Because the same mechanic happened in the past.
Here's what happened and what will happen next 🧵
Up to the 1500s, languages were not differentiated like today. In places like Europe, there were vernacular gradients, from Wallonia to Lisbon, from London to Vienna.
That's because most ppl didn't communicate with those far away from their village.
The only ones who did communicate across Europe were the Catholic Church, who could do that because they had a single language, Latin.
Then came the printing press, printed in the local vernacular of the biggest cities. As more and more ppl read that vernacular, more and more ppl read it.
By the time the 19th and 20th century broadcasting systems appear, that movement accelerates: newspapers, radio, TV, education create one language to rule them all—within a nation-state.
Let's summarize: the predominant vernacular became the lingua franca of a nation-state, because of network effects: +ppl speak it, so +ppl write in it, so +ppl read it... And this process happened nation-states emerged.
Now, which is the vernacular of the 21st century globalized world?
Which is the vernacular that most non-natives are learning?
Which is the vernacular that most non-natives are learning, representing this unstoppable force of worldwide language spread?
Which is, as a result, the language that's growing the fastest?
So let's summarize:
Printing press ➡️ spreads local vernaculars that become national languages and create national sentiment as a side-effect
Internet ➡️ spreads English that becomes global language and creates a global identity.
What it means is:
- Unstoppable spread of English
- More international fraternalism
- Fewer international conflicts (but maybe more fraternal ones, based on ideas rather than geographies)
- More exchange of ideas
- More economic growth
And in depth in the examples of the printing press and broadcasting media here
Follow and subscribe as I develop these themes. Coming next: how specifically the nation-state will be undermined, the impact of automation, technologies of violence, and more
This Sunday are Germany's elections
These are the best maps to understand the country:
Why is it so rich?
What makes it special?
What lies in its future?
1. We can still tell the East/West divide, 35 years after the reunification. These are Germany's phantom borders
2. Before WW2, East Germany had more:
• Working class ppl
• Vote left
• Women working
• Births out of wedlock
• Protestantism
3. The main reason is because this region industrialized early. One of the reasons of that industrialization is because of the Bohemian Mountains and their coal and iron
UNPRECEDENTED
The singularity is near. We're 1-6 years away from AGI according to: 1. Prediction markets 2. Insider insights 3. Benchmarks 4. Lack of barriers to growth 5. Current progress
This breakneck speed of AI progress is illustrated by OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek🧵
1. Prediction Markets:
Average bet on AGI: November 2030
Mode: June 2027
Two other bets in Metaculus match this:
• Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
• Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029
This remote corner of the US has something unique that might soon make it one of the most important cities in the world—the city of the future. It is officially Boca Chica today, but it might soon become Starbase 🧵
This point at the south of Texas is the southernmost point in the continental US
That is extremely useful for rockets
The biggest share of weight in rockets is fuel. Most of it is burnt just to carry the rest to orbit! Rocket makers do anything they can to reduce fuel consumption
We should transform Guantanamo Bay into a 21st Century Hong Kong 🧵
Hong Kong was a deep water port surrounded by a Communist country—China
By building up the port, urbanizing the surrounding area, making business easy, and taxing little, Hong Kong showed China what capitalism could do by becoming a global port and financial center
Seeing this success, Deng Xiaoping made the neighboring Shenzhen into a special economic zone (SEZ). The area exploded and is not the epicenter of global manufacturing, along with the broader Guangzhou, on the Pearl River delta