Climate change has gotten me thinking about the Drake equation and the future of humanity ...
What is the Drake equation, you ask? A 🧵:
What is the Drake equation, you ask? A 🧵:
The Drake equation is an example of order-of-magnitude estimation. There's some quantity you want to know (in this case, how many intelligent civilizations there are that Earth can communicate with), so you break it down into the terms that would constrain the value.
You now estimate each of the terms. Some of these terms are known quite well, such as the number of stars that have planets.
Other terms are much less well constrained and end up being more or less guesses (e.g., fraction of planets where intelligent life develops).
This tells you where you need to focus your energy if you want to improve your estimate.
This tells you where you need to focus your energy if you want to improve your estimate.
Once you've gotten estimates of all of the terms, you can get an estimate of N.
This kind of order-of-magnitude estimation is one of the most powerful techniques of science. I still remember learning about it in grad school — it was a profound revelation.
This kind of order-of-magnitude estimation is one of the most powerful techniques of science. I still remember learning about it in grad school — it was a profound revelation.
So what does this have to do with climate change?
The last term, L, is the length of time advanced civilizations last. If the time is short, say 1000 years, then almost every one that ever developed has ended. There will few for us to communicate with.
The last term, L, is the length of time advanced civilizations last. If the time is short, say 1000 years, then almost every one that ever developed has ended. There will few for us to communicate with.
It's easy to think that human civilization will be around forever ... but will it? Climate change and COVID really make me question how long it's going to last.
We have the tools to solve both problems, but we cannot cooperate to solve the problem.
We have the tools to solve both problems, but we cannot cooperate to solve the problem.
When people are eating horse paste instead of taking a safe, scientifically proven vaccine, it becomes much harder to imagine an advanced human civilization lasting 1000 years.
This might explain why there are no aliens. Their civilization collapsed due to climate change.
This might explain why there are no aliens. Their civilization collapsed due to climate change.
Had to do it. 
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