Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Sep 4, 2021 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
THREAD on how to make schools and workplaces safer - inc *three* @IndependentSage reports!

1. late November, cases in school age children were high and rising and we released an urgent plan for safer schools with the Eagle Group for Education.
2. Almost a year later and cases in school age children are much higher than they were then. End of last term, they were higher than ever. Currently rising again and school has just started.
3. Most of the suggestions were never implemented. We believe they are still highly relevant and incredibly important with the rise of Delta and minimal Child vax.

Here are the key principle. The actual document has much more detail!
4. These recommendations are part of the "how" alongside the urgent schools safety letter in the BMJ
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/09/03…

& concerns raised in this @allthecitizens summit yesterday. Please watch - it really was excellent.
5. So @IndependentSage have re-released last November's recommendations along with a new introduction for the current context.

independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
6. Last September, when many people returned to workplaces, we published a detailed safer workplaces charter with the Hazards Campaign to prevent Covid transmission - covering many different workplaces inc those of key workers.
7. A year later, little has been done - esp by central government. We've seen massive spikes and 2 more lockdowns. And we go into this autumn with cases much much higher than a year ago and rising.

Our safer workplaces charter remains all too relevant.
8. It sets out responsibilities for employers, health & safety executive, local authorities and government to develop a Covid Sage Plan for each business/workplace.

Again we have relaunched it with an updated introduction for the current context.
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
9. Finally, and complementary to previous two reports, we've produced a new "Covid Safety Codes of Practice" consultation document - detailing how everyone in society can play their part in reducing transmission. Esp as government is stepping back from their responsiblities.
10. We provide ideas for how each of the 4 sectors can play their part.

We now want *your* views! We'll be running a dedicated feedback session in a month or so.

Please send suggestions to *reports@independentsage.org*

Full doc is here:
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
11. The Covid Safety Codes have been led by @IndependentSage 's fantastic behavioural subgroup.

We hope that these three documents could help keep us all safer as we open up and support the excellent vaccines & vax programme.

Again all here: independentsage.org /END
Covid safe plan! Not covid sage
Ps particular shout out to @ReicherStephen @robertjwest

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More from @chrischirp

May 8
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.

TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots

This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9 Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 2
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6 Image
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*

It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
In fact hospital testing has been steady since the change in testing a year ago (only symptomatic patients get tested now).

The % of people PCR tested who have Covid is 4% - there is no evidence that there are loads of symptomatic people in hospital being missed. 3/6
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
Beyond a shadow of a doubt that England is in its biggest Covid wave for well over a year now, with latest ONS infection survey results published.

I've written about it here
1/7 tinyurl.com/ru7h3m28
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The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.

Read all about it here!
2/7
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
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Read 8 tweets
Nov 30, 2023
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.

1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?

A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.

1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.

Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
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2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?

A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Nov 30, 2023
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"

Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed

Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"

1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"

"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"

"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"

2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"

"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"

3/16
Read 17 tweets
Aug 31, 2023
THREAD: England Covid update

TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.

Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.

Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12


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However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.

So what could happen next? 3/12 Image
Read 14 tweets

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