Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Sep 4, 2021 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
THREAD on how to make schools and workplaces safer - inc *three* @IndependentSage reports!

1. late November, cases in school age children were high and rising and we released an urgent plan for safer schools with the Eagle Group for Education.
2. Almost a year later and cases in school age children are much higher than they were then. End of last term, they were higher than ever. Currently rising again and school has just started.
3. Most of the suggestions were never implemented. We believe they are still highly relevant and incredibly important with the rise of Delta and minimal Child vax.

Here are the key principle. The actual document has much more detail!
4. These recommendations are part of the "how" alongside the urgent schools safety letter in the BMJ
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/09/03…

& concerns raised in this @allthecitizens summit yesterday. Please watch - it really was excellent.
5. So @IndependentSage have re-released last November's recommendations along with a new introduction for the current context.

independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
6. Last September, when many people returned to workplaces, we published a detailed safer workplaces charter with the Hazards Campaign to prevent Covid transmission - covering many different workplaces inc those of key workers.
7. A year later, little has been done - esp by central government. We've seen massive spikes and 2 more lockdowns. And we go into this autumn with cases much much higher than a year ago and rising.

Our safer workplaces charter remains all too relevant.
8. It sets out responsibilities for employers, health & safety executive, local authorities and government to develop a Covid Sage Plan for each business/workplace.

Again we have relaunched it with an updated introduction for the current context.
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
9. Finally, and complementary to previous two reports, we've produced a new "Covid Safety Codes of Practice" consultation document - detailing how everyone in society can play their part in reducing transmission. Esp as government is stepping back from their responsiblities.
10. We provide ideas for how each of the 4 sectors can play their part.

We now want *your* views! We'll be running a dedicated feedback session in a month or so.

Please send suggestions to *reports@independentsage.org*

Full doc is here:
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
11. The Covid Safety Codes have been led by @IndependentSage 's fantastic behavioural subgroup.

We hope that these three documents could help keep us all safer as we open up and support the excellent vaccines & vax programme.

Again all here: independentsage.org /END
Covid safe plan! Not covid sage
Ps particular shout out to @ReicherStephen @robertjwest

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More from @chrischirp

Jul 23
THREAD:
I wrote about Baroness Hallett's Inquiry Module 1 report for @bmj_latest .

She found that there was *never* a plan to keep a pandemic death toll down - I discuss this and what it means going foward.

Main points below: 1/14 Image
The headline most seen is that the UK planned for the wrong pandemic.

While it is true that was far too narrow a focus on a flu pandemic, that is not the most telling bit.

To me the most telling bit, is what the plan did NOT do 2/14


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The issue is less the wrong disease, but that there was never a plan to prevent one at all – of any disease type.

The plan was *never* about reducing the number of pandemic deaths. 3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Jul 19
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.

I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.

TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.

This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11 Image
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.

Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11 Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 3
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....

TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point

let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.

The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.

Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25 Image
Read 38 tweets
Jun 4
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
Image
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3 Image
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Read 5 tweets
May 8
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.

TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots

This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9 Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 2
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6 Image
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*

It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
In fact hospital testing has been steady since the change in testing a year ago (only symptomatic patients get tested now).

The % of people PCR tested who have Covid is 4% - there is no evidence that there are loads of symptomatic people in hospital being missed. 3/6
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Read 6 tweets

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