Thread by @klahoops

I’ve been following @DannyLeroux for years and respect his work a lot, so it pains me to have to make this thread, but the RealGM over/under podcast with @AmericanNumbers about the Bulls had some misinformation that needs to be corrected. Going quote by quote here:

1. “The Bulls do not have much in the way of defensive talent, and the talent they have isn’t going to play.” Chicago only has 2 detrimental defenders: DeMar DeRozan and Coby White, and the latter was playing different roles defensively last year (starting POA vs bench help).

Zach LaVine rated as slightly below average (44th percentile D-EPM) despite playing most his minutes with Coby. He had a positive net rating when playing with any of Thad, Theis, Brown, Temple, Sato. He’s not a plus defender yet (or ever?) but he’s no longer an active detriment.

Vucevic finished 45th percentile and has always been underrated as an interior defender, even if he offers little rim protection. He’s not a sieve. The rest: Caruso, Ball, Williams, Brown, Bradley, Jones, and Green all project as good to elite (in Caruso’s case) defenders.

In the current projected rotation, then, only one “bad” defender is going to be consistently getting 20+ mins a night: DeRozan. It’s fair to be concerned about the defense, but the idea that team does not have good defenders and/or they won’t be playing much is misleading.

2. “Should DeMar ever get touches in the last 2 mins? No. There’s no justification for having the ball in DeMar DeRozan’s hands at the end of the game.” The guest said this one, and I’d like to offer some justification. Because it’s quite the opposite.

DeRozan was the 2nd most efficient PnR scorer (1.104 PPP) in the entire league this year, behind Kawhi (1.149 PPP). He’s also been the #1 most efficient isolation scorer in the league the last two years. He’s also 90th percentile in TOV% and 99th in shooting fouls drawn.

One of the Bulls’ biggest weaknesses last season was late-game turnovers, poor clutch efficiency, and failure to draw fouls, with LaVine the only viable option. Not only is DeMar the player on the Bulls who should get lots of touches in the clutch, he should be for most teams.

3. “Functionally there is no offensive value in having DeMar DeRozan on the court.” Another one from the guest. Here we go: DeMar was 25th in the league in VORP, 20th in WS, 26th in WS/48, 11th in OWS, 23rd in PER, with a 59.1 TS% despite taking only 1.2 3s per game.

Maybe they meant Bulls-specific, though? The Spurs had the 24th best 3-pt% shooting as a team last year. Bulls were 13th. DeMar has more space to operate in PnR and better partners for it than ever before in his career. Other Bulls starters 3-pt%: 37.8, 41.9, 39.1, 40.0.

The Bulls also specifically need a reliable half-court creator. DeMar is 96th percentile is AST:USG, has a 32 AST%, a .478 FTr, and a 3.5 AST/TOV ratio. The idea that this player, who is elite at the Bulls’ biggest weaknesses, has no offensive value is just silly.

This ended up being a fairly productive conversation/debate, and I appreciate Danny and Arturo for engaging with the points I laid out.