Thread by @tconnellyRTE

So, back from the summer break and lots of churn about the NI Protocol already, esp today's FT story by @pmdfoster

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1434850463346741249

Here's a thread on what I can contribute to what's out there...

2/ Acc to two sources, the EU will seek to avoid punch-ups, deadlines, and general "noise" on the issues around Protocol, esp the extension of grace periods, which run out on Sept 30

3/ The response from the Commission to the UK Command Paper on July 21 was deliberately low key... gov.uk/government/pub…

4/ However, it was after two difficult phone calls between @BorisJohnson and @vonderleyen and Angela Merkel following the Command Paper that high level reflection in Brussels and MS concluded the process needed to be calm and orderly

5/ In effect, the EU did not want to fall into what was suspected might be the trap of rolling public scraps with London...

6/ The decision to freeze legal action on July 27 was the first result of this reflection. It appears to have been a sharp U-turn which took capitals (including Dublin) by surprise (ie, the EU was close to issuing a "reasoned opinion" on the UK's earlier unilateral moves)

7/ Two sources have said the Commission is prepared to find further flexibilities within the Protocol, ie to see if a gap can be bridged between what the Command Paper demands and what member states will live with, in terms of protecting the Protocol and the internal market

8/ A team from the Commission met their UK counterparts in London in August to ask questions about how some of the Command Paper ideas would work (a UK team of officials will be in Brussels this week).

9/ The EU view remains that the Command Paper as a whole would involve sweeping renegotiation of the Protocol, which is not an option. Again, the Commission will look for flexibilities, and ones which go beyond the package of measures announed in June

ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

10/ The demand for the ECJ role to be removed from the Protocol is seen as a non-starter. It is regarded as a sop to Westminster and not something that reflects widespread resentment in NI (the campaign to remove Art 10 and the state aid issue is seen in the same light)

11/ If the UK does announce further unilateral extensions of grace periods this week, the Commission is likely to "take note", rather than launch further legal proceedings...

12/ Officials point out that the existing legal action over earlier unileratal actions has been paused, not abandoned and that the Commission reserves the right to continue the action...

13/ Meanwhile, the Commission is understood to be reflecting on a bigger role for NI institutions (Assembly + Executive) in the various structures (Joint Cttee, Joint Consultative Working Group), but there are limitations

14/ The ability for NI ministers etc to join such fora is the preserve of the UK govt. Secondly, ministers/officials from Switzerland and Norway, who follow SM rules, have no right to demand how those rules are shaped.

15/ However, reflection is under way, and the Commission and member states are said to be understanding of the need for buy in and agency for NI institutions and stakeholders...

16/ Things will ramp up this week with @MarosSefcovic in NI (he is due to meet the Taoiseach in Dublin as well). But talk of a Sept 30 cliff edge is receding