David (TalkingCents) Profile picture
Sep 7, 2021 28 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Alibaba as an Investment Case

• What they do
• Revenue Breakdown
• Competitive advantage
• Whose buying the stock
• Risks of buying Alibaba
• Valuation

- Thread -
1/
Alibaba Group was established in 1999 by 18 people led by Jack Ma, a former English teacher from Hangzhou, China.

This Chinese multinational technology company that specializes in e-commerce and retail internet has built their business around the iron triangle.
2/
The Iron Triangle

Before we take a deep dive into understanding this triangle, we need to have a look at the core businesses of Alibaba first
3/
Alibaba really took off after the launch of Taobao in 2003. Taobao would later become their prize asset

•Taobao is a consumer to consumer e-commerce site, similar to eBay

•Revenue is generated from sellers paying to rank higher in the search. (Similar to google rankings)
4/
From Taobao’s success, Alibaba launched TMALL COM in 2008.

• A business to consumer e-commerce store.

•An online mall that allows global brands to sell their products to Chinese consumers

• Revenue is generated through sale commissions and advertising
5/
In 2004 Alipay was launched.
Ant Financial owns Alipay, and Alibaba owns 1/3rd of Ant Financial

•Alipay is a digital wallet online payment platform - similar to PayPal

•Currently has over 1.3billion users
•Alipay processed $17 trillion worth of transactions in China.

•80 million Merchants use Alipay for business.

•Partnered with more than 2000 financial institutions

(These numbers are incredible) the tailwind behind Alibaba is enormous - IMO.
6/
In 2013,
Alibaba and 6 large Chinese logistic companies established Cainiao, for delivery of packages in China. It had grown to 14 by 2014.

The network aims to provide one service and supply chain management solutions, fulfilling logistic needs of merchants and consumers.
7/
All of these businesses above form Alibaba’s Iron Triangle I mentioned earlier. It creates their competitive advantage and is what makes their MOAT so powerful.

It’s why the barriers to entry are extremely difficult, and why Alibaba should continue to dominate in the region
8/
The strength of their Iron Triangle lies in:

- E-commerce Network Effect
- Trustworthy Payment Platform
- Efficient Logistics Services.

Let’s take a look at how this translates into numbers…..
9/
2021 Revenue Breakdown

1. Core commerce 87%
2. Cloud computing 8%
3. Digital Media/enter 4%
4. Innovation and others. 1%
10/
1. Core commerce

This is still the most important revenue contributor for Alibaba, and includes 👇🏽

• E-commerce 75%
• Cainaio 5%
• Eleme+Koubei+Figgy 5%
• Other 2%
- ele. me (Food delivery)
- Fliggy (travel agent)

They fall under consumer services
11/
2. Cloud Computing

Alibaba Cloud launched in 2009, it’s China’s largest provider of public cloud services

It’s revenue has been growing astronomically:

2019 = $3.8B
2020 =$ 6.2B
2021 = $ 9.1B

However, it is still in the red and is consuming money.
12/
3. Digital Media and Entertainment

- Youku
- Alibaba Pictures

Youku is one of China’s top online video and streaming platforms. It’s like the Netflix in China, with 70% of users opting to use it to watch TV series and movies.
13/
4. Innovation and Other

Their playground to experiment with upcoming businesses, also known as ‘other bets’.

Examples:

- A Map ( Mobile digital map)
- DingTalk ( Mobile office platform)
- Tmall Genie ( Smart speakers)
14/
Alibaba’s Competitive Advantage

• Enormous network effect
• High barrier to entry for competitors
• Iron Triangle
• e-commerce network effect
• Trusted payment platform
• Efficient logistics Services
15/
Risks

• Chinese government
• Nationalization
• Big Tech Clampdown
• US auditors aren’t allowed to audit Chinese companies
• You have to trust the numbers.
However, although these risks exist and are possible, I personally don’t think they will materialize and it’s why we have seen big investors pile into the stock lately.

“Be greedy when others are fearful”

Alibaba is also major contributor to China’s GDP 👇🏽
16/
Buyers of Alibaba stock

Q1 2021

• Charlie Munger added 165 320 shares (19%)

• Mohnish Pabrai added 168 843 shares (14.61%)

• Greg Alexander added 884 845 shares (12.33%)
In Q2 2021

Mohnish Pabrai continued adding Alibaba to his portfolio, adding 7% (89 878 shares)

Over Q1/Q2 of 2021 he added a total of 258 721 Alibaba shares

That is serious conviction, he believes the company will succeed.

“Heads I win, tails I don’t lose much”
For those of you who remember, I spoke about diversification and what Mohnish Pabrai had to say about it.

“It makes little sense if you know what you are doing”

He also holds about 10 stocks in his portfolio and he is backing Alibaba as one of them. 👇🏽
17/
Valuation

This behemoth has a market cap of $462 billion, take a look at their 10 year CAGR:

Revenue = 60%
EPS = 66%
FCF = 57%

An absolute monster, that IMO is undervalued. Let me explain why👇🏽
It’s starting from a large base and is to big to power ahead at this current CAGR, but that doesn’t mean no growth in the future.

Let’s assume they continue growing at 16%.
This would value
the company at $707billion

Which is a 35% margin of safety at current levels.
18/

An absolute steal of a company if you are willing to swallow the risks and hold for the long term.

Businesses that play the long term game usually are the ones that succeed, and it seems this is what Alibaba has been doing - playing the long term game.
That’s it, that’s the tweet. Follow me @talkcentss for more business breakdowns.

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davidketh.substack.com/p/talkcents
TL, DR

• Iron Triangle
• Strong Moat
• Strong Tailwinds
• Growing Business
• Decent entry price
• High barriers to entry
• Promising revenue streams

#alibaba #alipay #tech

• • •

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More from @talkcentss

May 9
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

This is the part where many of us get confused when reading financial statements.

But not anymore🔻 Image
*** Catch up ***

Here is a basic understanding of the three most common financial statements.

Start with this thread before continuing 🔻
1/ The Cashflow Statement

Is an important tool used to manage the finances of a business by tracking the cash flow of an organization.

It’s divided into 3 Parts:

▪️Operating activities
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𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱

▪️Cashflow Statement
▪️Income Statement
▪️Balance Sheet

Beginners guide 🔻 Image
1/ 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 records information related to a business’s transactions,

It provides a summary of statements reflecting the financial performance of an entity. Think of it as the 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀.

Let’s take a look 🔻
2/ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

The Cashflow statement shows:

▪️Sources
(where money came from)

▪️Uses
(how the money was used)

It 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 of a business (Money in, and money out) Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 25
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸

National Treasury ( NT ) plans to use the 𝘂𝗻𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 from the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account ( GFECRA )

They call it ‘𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹’ arrangement

Learn more 🔻
Image
Image
** Glossary **

▪️National Treasury
▪️GFECRA

National Treasury is one of many departments of the South African Government

The Treasury falls within the portfolio of the Minister of Finance, and the role of NT is to manage the Government’s Finances.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) and Statistics South Africa also fall under this wing.

——————-

The Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account is a tool used to safeguard the country's financial stability.

This account’s purpose is in its name, it holds the reserves of gold and foreign currencies South Africa has built up.
1/ The Waterfall Arrangement

𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗙𝗘𝗖𝗥𝗔 𝘄𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 *𝘂𝗻𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗱, it means it has grown larger over the years due to currency depreciation.

( remember this, cause this will be important later on )

—————

Going forward, the funds from the GFECRA will now be distributed into 3 pools, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁.

The three pools are:

(1) GFECRA Buffer Account
(2) SARB’s Contingency Reserve
(3) National Treasury

—————-

𝗙𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗲:

*Unsettled funds going into 𝗚𝗙𝗘𝗖𝗥𝗔, means funds that entered into the account and had no purpose, they weren’t allocated or spent to anything specific.

*Picture just for visualization purposes to show the 3 Pools ( Waterfall arrangement)Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 19
𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁

The Beer with the Longest and Proudest Heritage in South Africa

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝗿𝗸 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗡𝗼 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗬𝗼𝘂

Read more 🔻
Image
Image
1/ History

𝗟𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻….. 🍺

The story dates back to 1886 and can be traced to the days of the Johannesburg Gold rush.

Here is how a man with a small brewery in Northern Natal led to the historic legacy of the South African Breweries (SAB)
——————————————

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗚𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀…..

Charles Glass, British-Born-Brewer, established Glass & Co in 1864, which ended up giving birth to a global powerhouse in the later years.

As time passed, he saw a money making opportunity in the market, to provide miners with beer in the Witwatersrand Reef (𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱).

—————
*𝚃𝚑𝚎 𝚐𝚘𝚕𝚍 𝚛𝚞𝚜𝚑 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚋𝚎𝚐𝚊𝚗 𝚒𝚗 𝟷𝟾𝟾𝟼 𝚒𝚜 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚕𝚎𝚍 𝚝𝚘 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚒𝚜𝚑𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝙹𝚘𝚑𝚊𝚗𝚗𝚎𝚜𝚋𝚞𝚛𝚐*
—————

The beer soon became a hit that Charles and his wife, Lisa, decided to set up their brewery in the business centre of the town to capture the influx of fortune seekers coming to Witwatersrand Reef.

The phrase “𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗵, 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀”, seems more appropriate here”.

His beer brew took some time to gain traction, it was only when Charles Glass’s new beer, 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗲𝗿, was introduced that he won the miners over and secured the market.

It was in 1884 that Castle’s famous label, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲-𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀, 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱.

——————
*𝘏𝘦 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘬𝘦𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘌𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘦𝘦𝘱 𝘶𝘱 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥*
——————

As a result of his success with Castle Beer, he renamed his business to “𝗖𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘆” and focused on distribution, to expand.

𝗖𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀…..

Other brewing companies grew interested in Charles Success, and soon realized the market was MASSIVE in the Witwatersrand.

Because of this astonishing growth, Frederick Mead, another brewer from Pietermaritzburg, negotiated to purchase Castle Brewery in
July of 1892.

Frederick Mead’s brewing empire combined with Castle brewery 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 (𝗦𝗔𝗕) 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟴𝟵𝟱.Image
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2/ 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆

Because of the extraordinary quantities of gold that had been extracted from the Witwatersrand rocks,

𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟲𝟭 upon the declaration of the republic

Learn more here:

The History of the South African Reserve Bank 👇🏽
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15
𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝘄𝗻
𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗳𝗳𝗲𝘁

Meet the 100-year-old business tycoon who operated under the radar

A true Legend in the Baking 🔻 Image
1/ History

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟴𝟱𝟭….. ✍🏼

John Frederick Baumann migrates from England to South Africa,

here he starts a grocery and bread bakery in the old British Colony of Natal (KwaZulu Natal)

𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲…..

He manages to convince his nephew, John Michael Leonard Baumann to migrate to South Africa

J. M. L. Baumann arrives in Durban in 1881 and joins his uncle's bakery and grocery business.

𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿……

The lease on their premise expires, and J. M. L. Baumann purchases the bakery operations from his uncle

𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝟭𝟴𝟴𝟱 - 𝟭𝟴𝟵𝟱, he (J.M.L) constructs a small building and starts to buy biscuit machinery, to make more “𝚏𝚊𝚗𝚌𝚢 𝚋𝚒𝚜𝚌𝚞𝚒𝚝𝚜” such as, ginger nuts and marie biscuits.

𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝟭 𝗸𝗶𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗼𝗳𝗳….

The company starts to falter because of the anti-German riots, which leads to the bakery and shop being burnt to the ground, 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀, there are massive supply disruptions across the country during the Great Depression

𝗛𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿,
a couple of things worked out in their favor.

(I) The factory manages to survive the anti-German riots of 1915, mainly because it was producing biscuits for the army, so the factory was put under government protection to prevent further damage.

(ii) the company's name changes from Baumann's (German) to 𝗕𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱, thus giving birth to the iconic brand we now know today.

The famous Baker’s mascot makes its first appearance on the packaging in 1923.Image
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2/ The Following Chapter

The Family business is passed down from generation to generation, an epitome, of generational wealth.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗳𝗳𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻…….

In fact, he was born on a farm in Empangeni, in KwaZulu Natal. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 14
𝗗𝗶𝗱 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗞𝗻𝗼𝘄:

A Famous South African Brand was used as a currency

“𝗡𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲, 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀”

Read more 🔻 Image
1/ History

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀……✍🏼

A young man finishes school and needs a job, just as many do, he finds the most convenient job available, which is at the 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝘄𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆, just down the road from his house in Troyeville, Johannesburg.

𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗿𝘁𝗵𝘂𝗿 𝗚𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗴

The creator of the iconic
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗺 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 was inspired when the Chapelat Confectionary Company found themselves losing their biggest client at the time – OK Bazaars

This pressure led Arthur Ginsberg to come up with the 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟰𝟴. The idea was sparked by looking at a competitor’s product.

Wicks bubble gum, at the time, was selling gum for a penny each, and Arthur believed he could sell two for a penny –𝗴𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗶𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀.

*The Chapelat Sweet Factory is what gave him the inspiration and it is where “chappies” derived its name from.Image
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𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟵𝟱𝟬𝘀……

Arthur had been made head of marketing and sales at Chapelat Confectionary Company, even though he spent many years studying at night to complete a BComm degree at Wits University.

He was truly passionate about marketing and advertising.

𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱…..

The only thing that was left to do was to market Chappies, this is where Arthur Ginsberg proved to be a mastermind.

He focused on making chappies attractive to children by having the famous “𝗗𝗶𝗱 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄” questions on the inside of each wrapper.

𝗗𝗶𝗱 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄:

A cartoon chipmunk was inserted under “Chappies” on the wrapper.

Management felt that rural black children who possibly couldn’t read needed to be able distinguish the real Chappies from any substitutes on the market, and the chipmunk was that distinctive feature.

*The wrapper still contains the famous chipmunk today.Image
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