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TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
@LastBearStandng
Sep 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
China Credit Thesis - Master Thread:

(since Twitter is hard to navigate)
China Credit Market Risk (6/1/21)
Evergrande Liquidity Thread 1 (7/20/21)
Evergrande - Tether Rumors (7/22/21)
China Credit Update (7/27/21)
Big Picture China Credit Update (8/30/21)
China Update - Gradually then Suddenly (9/7/21)
A Timeline of Contagion (9/8/21)
Writing on the Wall - and How to Trade it (9/15/21)
The Argument for a Bank Crisis (9/22/21)
Banks in Theory and Practice (9/27/21)
Pressure Cooker (10/26/21)

• • •

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More from @LastBearStandng

TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
Apr 5
1. No, it wasn't a joke. I think Blade $BLDE is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued stock in the market.

Revenue: 54%
Seats Flown: 45%
Largest organ transplant aviator in the country

👇👇 Image
2. In just two years since entering the organ-transplant space, it has grown organically to be the largest player in the country. Its scale and platform has allowed it to outcompete and consolidate a fragmented regional industry. There is >70% of this market left to capture. Image
3. Despite the success in medical, investors are concerned about the impact of Transmedics' (TMDX) vertical integration and declining BLDE revenue over the past two quarters. Understandable... but they have it wrong. Image
Read 14 tweets
TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
Apr 1
1. I've looked through hundreds of discarded deSPACs and think Blade Air Mobility $BLDE is one of the most unappreciated and undervalued stocks in the market. Image
2. The company trades at a basic market cap of $209 million at $2.78/share, compared to $166 million of cash on the balance sheet at year end. The market says this business is worth almost nothing... which is odd...
3. Because the company has grown revenue ~3x in two years from $67m in 2021 to $225m 2023. Some of this growth has come via acquisition, but the biggest driver is its medical segment, where the company is the largest air transport provider for organ transplants in the country Image
Read 14 tweets
TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
Feb 14
Blackstone Mortgage Trust $BXMT reported 4Q23 results this morning.

Here are the implications for Arbor Realty Trust $ABR, before they report this Friday the 16th...

Bears should take note...🧵 Image
$BXMT and $ABR have similarities - floating rate mREITs, both under scrutiny and the subject of short reports by @muddywatersre and @viceroyresearch, respectively. Some overlap in assets. Both reports make similar arguments around overstated collateral and future credit losses.
This morning $BXMT reported a significant build in credit provisions for the second quarter in a row.

The provision eliminated all GAAP profits for the quarter, resulting in a net loss of ($0.01)/sh Image
Read 11 tweets
TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
Oct 10, 2023
Went to the SBF trial this afternoon for Caroline Ellison's testimony.

Quick reactions in no particular order:

👇👇
- FTX customer funds were always a liquidity backstop for Alameda, and were used dating back to 2020.

SBF and Ellison both always planned to use customer funds to cover potential margin calls at Alameda
- excluding "Sam coins" Alameda had a negative $2.7bn NAV *all the way back in 2021* when the crypto market was still booming

SBF took $3bn for more "venture funding" despite a negative liquid NAV in late 2021
Read 13 tweets
TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
Jun 23, 2023
Yield Curve inversion predicted the last four US recessions, making it a key leading economic indicator.

But none of those recessions actually began while the yield curve was inverted.

Instead it was the *reversion* of the yield curve that signaled an imminent recession.
The yield curve has now been inverted for a year - the inversion is deeper than it has been since the 1980s.

And rather than *reverting* (the key recession signal) the inversion only seems to grow.
If we are waiting on a reversion to signal a recession, there is a still a long ways to go.

But maybe this time is different. Recent yield curve trends have occurred during a long period of disinflation.

In an *inflationary* regime, the curve behaves differently.
Read 6 tweets
TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
May 2, 2023
Well worth a read, and pretty damning report from @HindenburgRes

But there is an interesting counterargument, at least theoretically...
The implied market cap is based on total shares outstanding, but as Hindenburg notes, only 11% is public float and the rest is owned by Icahn.

The huge dividend is only possible because it only goes to the small portion of public shareholders.

Icahn gets stock distributions
So the common equity is really more like two share classes, with very different payout terms (cash vs. PIK).

The cash pay is arguably more valuable - its a hefty, real cash yield.

Meanwhile the stock-based distributions rely on future equity value
Read 7 tweets

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