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TheLastBearStanding Profile picture
TheLastBearStanding
@LastBearStandng
Not an expert.
Cameron Priest Profile picture Georges Cadoudal Profile picture JHodgson Profile picture @Fordhambaldie Profile picture Daz Profile picture 42 subscribed
Apr 5 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1. No, it wasn't a joke. I think Blade $BLDE is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued stock in the market.

Revenue: 54%
Seats Flown: 45%
Largest organ transplant aviator in the country

👇👇 Image 2. In just two years since entering the organ-transplant space, it has grown organically to be the largest player in the country. Its scale and platform has allowed it to outcompete and consolidate a fragmented regional industry. There is >70% of this market left to capture. Image
Apr 1 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1. I've looked through hundreds of discarded deSPACs and think Blade Air Mobility $BLDE is one of the most unappreciated and undervalued stocks in the market. Image 2. The company trades at a basic market cap of $209 million at $2.78/share, compared to $166 million of cash on the balance sheet at year end. The market says this business is worth almost nothing... which is odd...
Feb 14 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Blackstone Mortgage Trust $BXMT reported 4Q23 results this morning.

Here are the implications for Arbor Realty Trust $ABR, before they report this Friday the 16th...

Bears should take note...🧵 Image $BXMT and $ABR have similarities - floating rate mREITs, both under scrutiny and the subject of short reports by @muddywatersre and @viceroyresearch, respectively. Some overlap in assets. Both reports make similar arguments around overstated collateral and future credit losses.
Oct 10, 2023 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Went to the SBF trial this afternoon for Caroline Ellison's testimony.

Quick reactions in no particular order:

👇👇 - FTX customer funds were always a liquidity backstop for Alameda, and were used dating back to 2020.

SBF and Ellison both always planned to use customer funds to cover potential margin calls at Alameda
Jun 23, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Yield Curve inversion predicted the last four US recessions, making it a key leading economic indicator.

But none of those recessions actually began while the yield curve was inverted.

Instead it was the *reversion* of the yield curve that signaled an imminent recession. The yield curve has now been inverted for a year - the inversion is deeper than it has been since the 1980s.

And rather than *reverting* (the key recession signal) the inversion only seems to grow.
May 2, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Well worth a read, and pretty damning report from @HindenburgRes

But there is an interesting counterargument, at least theoretically... The implied market cap is based on total shares outstanding, but as Hindenburg notes, only 11% is public float and the rest is owned by Icahn.

The huge dividend is only possible because it only goes to the small portion of public shareholders.

Icahn gets stock distributions
May 1, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Re: "Bank Crisis"

I think part of the problem is that everyone has different goal posts and are too busy arguing their side of an all-or-nothing debate. If your bar is 2008, then no we aren't there. It's different for many reasons - large banks are much healthier and the driving issue is monetary policy (rates+QT) rather than credit losses, which means it can be more easily remedied by policy makers.
Mar 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Maybe the solution to the CRE office occupancy problem is to give everyone offices again? (Background)

For the past decade, the trend across dense office real estate was away from individual offices towards tightener, open floor plans - clearly a cost savings & higher density decision disguised in fancy Mckinsey phrases
Mar 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
ICYMI, this post from last September is one of the best I've written, and is incredibly relevant to today's predicament.

It also places much of the blame on central bank policy. 🧵

thelastbearstanding.substack.com/p/bonds-of-mas… "Why on earth would a sophisticated investor lend with such an asymmetric risk and reward profile? Even if these losses remain unrealized, it will still decrease the mark-to-market value of the portfolio, which can prompt margin calls and other ills when paired with leverage...
Mar 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
It's worth noting that SVB and Silvergate are not really "normal" banks - and that overall cash leverage in the banking sector is 1/5th of the level of 2008 thanks to a decade of QE. When considering banking risk, its important to distinguish between solvency (which is bad for bank equity holders) and liquidity (which is bad systemically). Available liquidity in aggregate is a forgone conclusion thanks to post-GFC regulation...
Jan 24, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1. So, mid-size banks in China suddenly started raising huge sums of short term funding over the past couple of months.

What do these banks have in common?

Massive exposure to the property sector. 2. This list is the who's-who of the bad banks: Minsheng has always been number 1 on the list.

Most of these banks are insolvent. That sounds extreme, but its true.

BUT, solvency doesn't actually matter all that much if you are allowed to fake it. Liquidity is what matters.
Jan 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Retail sales have rolled over but context is important.

Still a big problem if you were extrapolating growth off the COVID bump. In ~real terms, it is much more droopy but still well above pre-COVID trend.
Jan 14, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here is an AI generated summary of my recent article, posted by @inbrief_ai

I'd grade it like a C+ (but impressive)

Does a good job of identifying and stringing together "key points", but with errors and without context needed to understand "why" and "so what"

Still cool! C+ grade if I was to ask like a high school student to summarize.
Jan 11, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1. This is actually an interesting idea from @mattyglesias on how to avoid the debt ceiling:

Issue a new "zero principal" bond.

It almost works, there is just one big problem that makes it unfeasible IMO...👇👇 2. TLDR: Just as you can issue a "zero coupon" bond at a discount to par, you could issue a "zero principal" bond at an extreme premium to par.

In other words, you could raise $100 of proceeds by only issuing like $1 of face value of debt (helpful for the debt ceiling)
Dec 19, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1. Something strange is happening - people are starting to borrow from the Fed!

This only happens in moments of significant liquidity stress - like 2008 or 2020.

But supposedly the market is "awash" with excess liquidity right? So what is going on?👇👇 2. The "odd" thing today is that some financial institutions are *borrowing* from the Fed (as shown above), while other financials are *lending* over $2 trillion to the Fed in the Reverse Repo facility (RRP).
Dec 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Fintwit pump and dump charged by SEC:

Stocks mentioned:
ABVC Biopharma (NASDAQ: ABVC)
FDS Pharma (NASDAQ: HUGE)
Camber Energy (NYSE: CEI)
Alzamend Neuro (NASDAQ: ALZN)
Vislink Technologies (NASDAQ: VISL)
Torchlight Energy Resources (NASDAQ: TRCH)

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco… $MMAT (formerly Torchlight)
Dec 13, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
1. This is a fantastic map.

It reveals important realities of:
- the US power grid
- the natural resource business
- the challenge of renewables (and how to solve it)

Let's dig in 🧵 2. First - to level set, if you're not familiar with typical wholesale power prices:

Power was:
- Very expense in the West
- Moderately expensive throughout the east coast
- Cheap or even *negative* in the Great Plains

Why is this the case?
Nov 20, 2022 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
1. Early Sunday morning, a bit hungover, can't sleep. Let's talk crypto.

Here is my 100% unvarnished take👇👇 2. I've always been *aware* of bitcoin etc. but not something I followed closely. And like most people, I became more *aware* during the parabolas (2014, 2017).
Nov 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Okay... Sorry folks, another hopefully permanent Handle update here:

@LastBearStandng

(note: spelling of Standng with no i due to character restrictions)

In case you care, which you probably don't... When you sign up for Twitter, it doesn't inform you that it will truncate your user name, which is how the original handle "@thelastbearsta1" came from.... I kept this for a while until impulsively changed it to @T_L_B_S_
Oct 18, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1. On the Counter Service Tipping Debate:

(In addition to the other hats I wear) I'm a part owner/operator of an upstart coffee shop, running the books, occasionally working the register, mopping floors...

Here is the view from from the other side. 2/ We use Square as our point-of-sale system which includes the typical tipping option screen after the customer pays. We also have a cash tipping jar on the counter.
Oct 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/ On Treasury Buybacks: Whack-a-Mole policy

IF, the treasury was to issue bills and buyback long dated bond AND the bill issuance drew money out of the RRP, it would be liquidity enhancing.

BUT... 2/ it would mean that the treasury was putting upwards pressure on the short end while putting downward pressure on the long end at a time when the yield curve is already deeply inverted.