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The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
@Garrett_Archer
Sep 7, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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A brief explainer on ballot styles and why they make injecting manufactured (aka bamboo) ballots into the system next to impossible.

A thread using maps of @maricopacounty

*all numbers are estimates using GIS union algorithm.
Ballot styles are what we refer to the different versions of the ballot. Every ballot has multiple races on it with different contests for different areas.

Maricopa would have 1 ballot style without cds, lds, cities, schools, etc...
At this point printing bamboo ballots would be pretty simple. Since everyone gets one ballot you can just load up on one style. Let's add congress.

There are now 8 ballot styles
Still not bad, pretty easy to hide bamboo ballots amongst only 8 ballot styles and make everything look on the up and up. Let's add legislative districts. Total is now 46
We're now starting to run into problems. While 46 is a manageable number of ballot styles the area and populations are really starting to vary. If we inject 15k bamboo ballots in a tiny area of Scottsdale it will be obvious.

Adding precincts. Total 772
Just got real...We now need to inject 772 different bamboo styles keeping population and voting behaviors into consideration. Luck! We can pull most of this off azsos so lets start coding.

Adding school districts, total now 1,017
We are nearing fantasy realm. From here on out a bamboo roadmap needs to come from a parsed and reconstructed county results file. Any registration denominators either need to be estimated with either math or geocoding.

City/Town boundaries: estimate now 1,314
The numbers just go up from here. I have not added JP, Constable, Special Taxing, MCBOS, etc...

Maricopa county had 10,920 different ballot styles.

Fraudulent ballots would have to consider population and voting behavior among frequently changing, small geographic spaces.

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More from @Garrett_Archer

The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Jan 9, 2024
Oh Lord, here we go again. Arizona is a documented proof of citizenship state. DPOC is required to vote here.

To remain in harmony with federal guidelines, we have a bifurcated system of federal only voters. It equates to a handful of mostly college students.
It is true, like hundreds of millions of voters elsewhere, federal only voters attest to their citizenship status. Many don't think that's good enough, which is fine. It's an opinion.
Like I said on another post, you don't have to like it. But to change it you need Congress to actually do something other than TV appearances and speaker changes.
Read 4 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Oct 24, 2023
A breakdown of the FY2023 migrant encounters at the southern border.

-Nearly 2.5 million encounters in FY2023, the highest on record.
-Three consecutive years of increasing encounters.
-#4 and #5 annual encounter rankings are 2000 and 2001.

1/5 Image
Full demographics by encounters is only available 2019 on, but FY2023 ranks #1 for encounters with Family units (823k), #2 for single adults (1.5MM) and #3 for unaccompanied minors (137k)

2/5 Image
Despite popular belief, the number of encounters between ports of entries is actually down 7% from FY2022. Although both are still the lions share of encounters at >2MM. Encounters at ports of entry are up 180% this year to nearly 500k.

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Jul 27, 2023
Mohave County Elections completed a hand count test run of 850 ballots. 36 contests on the ballots so a count of ~31k marks.

Biggest takeaway:

46 errors were made for a rate of 0.15%. Machine error rate, which does apply , is 0.00001%. (1 in ten million)

A 🧵 Image
Ballots were tallied over three, 8 hour days, by seven part-time staff members. Four full time staff administered. Image
It took three minutes to tally one ballot with 36 contests on it. The county forecasts at 105k ballots in 2024 one seven member team would need 5,250 work hours, 657 eight-hour days to complete the tally.

Note: Calculation does not include reconciliation of errors or write-ins. Image
Read 8 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Jun 14, 2023
Pre-bunk incoming.

At some point a group will come forward and say they spent thousands of hours doing a full verification of 2020 signatures using the illegally obtained @MaricopaVote data. It will likely include a high failure rate.
It will be mostly worthless.

Why?

🧵
The group is exclusively using signatures from voter registration forms. The VAST majority of which are MVD digitals. Comparing handwritten signatures to digital, is not great as you can imagine. Easy to fail if you ignore things like official address and matching phone.
But here is the kicker. The VAST majority of signatures used for comparison are OTHER handwritten signatures from previous early votes. A MUCH easier comparison to make. It's so easy in fact, it can be done in very, very little time.
Read 6 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Mar 30, 2023
🧵of Arizona politico reaction to Trump indictment

Incoming as I find them.

👇
.@RepAndyBiggsAZ

.@RepGosar

Read 12 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
Jan 12, 2023
Recorder @stephen_richer lays out election reform suggestions in a 28 page document released today. He begins by noting election admins are put in an untenable situation. He shows an email death threat that he received right after the primary.

A 🧵 Image
The primary reason results take longer in AZ, as laid out by @stephen_richer is the political landscape (battleground status) and a phenomena in AZ called "late earlies" ie. early votes dropped of on election day. They rose nearly 70% between 2020 and 2022. Image
A solution, he says, could be to eliminate late early ballots. That makes our system resemble Florida statute.
The pros are that enough ballots would be counted on election night to call most races.

The cons: Late early ballots are popular in AZ with voters. ImageImage
Read 11 tweets

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