Oh Lord, here we go again. Arizona is a documented proof of citizenship state. DPOC is required to vote here.

To remain in harmony with federal guidelines, we have a bifurcated system of federal only voters. It equates to a handful of mostly college students.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1744761381780386182

It is true, like hundreds of millions of voters elsewhere, federal only voters attest to their citizenship status. Many don't think that's good enough, which is fine. It's an opinion.

A breakdown of the FY2023 migrant encounters at the southern border.

-Nearly 2.5 million encounters in FY2023, the highest on record.
-Three consecutive years of increasing encounters.
-#4 and #5 annual encounter rankings are 2000 and 2001.

1/5 Full demographics by encounters is only available 2019 on, but FY2023 ranks #1 for encounters with Family units (823k), #2 for single adults (1.5MM) and #3 for unaccompanied minors (137k)

2/5

Mohave County Elections completed a hand count test run of 850 ballots. 36 contests on the ballots so a count of ~31k marks.

Biggest takeaway:

46 errors were made for a rate of 0.15%. Machine error rate, which does apply , is 0.00001%. (1 in ten million)

A 🧵 Ballots were tallied over three, 8 hour days, by seven part-time staff members. Four full time staff administered.

Pre-bunk incoming.

At some point a group will come forward and say they spent thousands of hours doing a full verification of 2020 signatures using the illegally obtained @MaricopaVote data. It will likely include a high failure rate.
It will be mostly worthless.

Why?

🧵 The group is exclusively using signatures from voter registration forms. The VAST majority of which are MVD digitals. Comparing handwritten signatures to digital, is not great as you can imagine. Easy to fail if you ignore things like official address and matching phone.

🧵of Arizona politico reaction to Trump indictment

Incoming as I find them.

👇 .@RepAndyBiggsAZ

https://twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1641557354012459009

Recorder @stephen_richer lays out election reform suggestions in a 28 page document released today. He begins by noting election admins are put in an untenable situation. He shows an email death threat that he received right after the primary.

A 🧵 The primary reason results take longer in AZ, as laid out by @stephen_richer is the political landscape (battleground status) and a phenomena in AZ called "late earlies" ie. early votes dropped of on election day. They rose nearly 70% between 2020 and 2022.

Liturgical Christmas music incoming.

O Magnum Mysterium by Morten Lauridsen.

Christmas Day by Gustav Holst.

Lake attorneys are now questioning Clay Parikh, their cyber expert. The question line right now is regarding duplicated ballots Parikh testifies that there was a 19 inch ballot image.

.@stephen_richer is on the stand. He is remote. He is asked to explain his role in elections.

1,843 ballots uploaded from Maricopa. It's a 55/45 split for the D side. @krismayes nets 199. @krismayes expands lead over @AbrahamHamadeh to 850.

3,359 ballots estimate outstanding.

Door 3 ballots are complete. Update. I was told incorrectly there are some door three ballots remaining.

Arizona outstanding ballots as of 12pm 11/14

State 169,087

Apache 9,280
Cochise 8,262
Coconino 1,571
Gila 55
Maricopa 94,285
Mohave 1,300
Navajo 4,443
Pima 38,874
Pinal 9,112
Yavapai 750
Yuma 1,155 Estimate of early ballots requiring signature curing by Wednesday COB deadline. If not cured, these would be removed from the total.

State: 11,033

Coconino 114
Gila 50
Graham 16
Maricopa 8,400
Mohave 500
Pima 750
Santa Cruz 200
Yavapai 450
Yuma 553

Good Morning!

This "how elections are stolen video" is hilariously bad. The only reason you would fall for it is if you want to.

"This is automated, but it's slowed down." Is all you need to know.

And you can't steal an election with a copy of the voter file.

https://twitter.com/MerissaHansen17/status/1587867168925958147

Now for the procedural reasons as to why this is BS. Even assuming an intrusion into a VR portal.

It's simple. At one point the guy says "the clerks and election officials they don't know any different."

If counties were inundated with Federal backup ballots...they would know.

DEVELOPING: @abc15 has obtained the security footage of alleged voter intimidation at Mesa drop box. Full video is 20 minutes long, we have edited it and blurred the voter. There's no audio on original video, but voter claims he was photographed and accused of being a mule. Before video was public, Melody Jennings from Clean Elections USA posted on Truth Social the photo below of the voter and car.

The complaint does not name a group, and Melody says the interaction was not with someone associated with Clean Elections USA.

BREAKING confirmed by @SecretaryHobbs office. A complaint has been filed with the AG and DOJ for voter intimidation. It happened Monday at the Mesa drop box location when a voter said they were approached and followed by a group of individuals. Story:

abc15.com/news/political…

A brief 🧵on the fed-only ballot mishap in Arizona.

First, background:
AZ has a bi-furcated system for registration. 1)Registrants that provide documented proof of citizenship. The vast, vast majority.
2)Registrants that attest to citizenship, the federal requirement.

1/5 DPOC (documented proof of citizenship) vote on a full ballot. Attesting registrants are "fed-only," meaning they only vote in federal races. (POTUS, US Senate, House)

Background over.

2/5

I tracked down the @RealMarkFinchem debate claim about 140k ballot images missing time stamps. The claim originates from Jovan Pulitzer, and the explanation is simple:

Election Day ballots cast at vote centers. All procedures were followed properly.

A brief 🧵1/6 The vast majority of ballots (1.9 million) are counted at the MCTEC warehouse on massive counting machines called ICCs. They add a sequential ballot ID, batch ID, and time stamp to every ballot image.

But election day ballots are counted on location on ICP2 tabulators.

2/6

.@RealMarkFinchem is asked about if the primary was fair. "I have no idea"

Moderator: "what changed?"

Finchem: "The candidates?" .@RealMarkFinchem says that the azsos cannot alter the law in regards to voting. This is intrinsically true.

.@RealMarkFinchem starts the debate saying that Maricopa and Yuma elections were irredeemably unqualified.

He cites claims in 2000 Mules and grossly misrepresented video from TTV. I've gone through several examples of why this video is grossly misrepresented. Additionally those on video in Georgia that were questioned were casting legal ballots.

As a control I ran the same numbers for 2020. I used the primary reg cutoff for its proximity to Dobbs this year.

Category: Pre-Pri➡️Post-Pri

party
REP:28%➡️33%
DEM:31%➡️25%

gender
M:51%➡️52%
F:49%➡️47%

Mean Age: 39➡️41

Mean Age~Gender
M: 39➡️40
F: 39➡️41 Here is this year for comparison.

Category: Pre-Pri➡️Post-Pri

party
REP:27%➡️26%
DEM:20%➡️25%

gender
M:52%➡️50%
F:47%➡️49%

Mean Age: 39➡️36

Mean Age~Gender
M: 39➡️36
F: 40➡️36

Looking at what Dobbs decision did to county registrations today.

Here is 7 day average of new registrations in @maricopacounty in 2022. Highest raw number day was 7/5 with 2,085 on that day alone. The dropoff on the right is a reporting delay. Ignore it. I should have clipped a week off the top.

.@AZFairElections is arguing that since amended court decision added a step using a private database to knock off more signatures, a new lawsuit should be required.

Their concern is applying results of the 5% county check to the new numbers results in cases of double counting. Basically, let's say one bad signatures in the sample can knock off twenty from the total. But unless the new file from the special master is resampled by the counties, there could be cases in which 1 bad signature knocks off forty in the total.