$ORGN Goldman Sachs initiates neutral $10 Price target, 38% upside
While I would always prefer a buy rating, I thought this report was overall a net positive
It focuses on the positives we all know while the risks are more about #SPAC volatility and construction
1/6
While I would always prefer a buy rating, I thought this report was overall a net positive
It focuses on the positives we all know while the risks are more about #SPAC volatility and construction
1/6
$ORGN Positives:
* Key entrant into bioplastics space
* Potential opportunity is strong w/ unique product offering
* Main modules for O1 4 months ahead of schedule
* $ORGN did not include a price premium in its base case, could be 20-30%
2/6
* Key entrant into bioplastics space
* Potential opportunity is strong w/ unique product offering
* Main modules for O1 4 months ahead of schedule
* $ORGN did not include a price premium in its base case, could be 20-30%
2/6
$ORGN Negatives:
* Sales and earnings are still years away
* $SPACs and renewables have experienced trading volatility
* $ORGN is running behind its original schedule, just like $PCT and other bioplastics companies
3/6
* Sales and earnings are still years away
* $SPACs and renewables have experienced trading volatility
* $ORGN is running behind its original schedule, just like $PCT and other bioplastics companies
3/6
$ORGN - what would make GS more constructive
* Clarity toward successful commercial progress, including production at O1 on time
[So we are back to O1 being the major catalyst, no surprise here!]
4/6
* Clarity toward successful commercial progress, including production at O1 on time
[So we are back to O1 being the major catalyst, no surprise here!]
4/6
$ORGN - GS valuation methodology
* 17x 2028 EBITDA in-line with the specialty chemical group - 25% discount rate = $10 Price Target
* Note GS cut the forecasted EBITDA by 50% and acknowledges that if $ORGN hits its plan it would imply a $29 Price target
5/6
* 17x 2028 EBITDA in-line with the specialty chemical group - 25% discount rate = $10 Price Target
* Note GS cut the forecasted EBITDA by 50% and acknowledges that if $ORGN hits its plan it would imply a $29 Price target
5/6
$ORGN - in summary despite a neutral rating, fairly positive report with 38% upside. We need to wait for O1 to come online and that will be the make or break moment.
Dropping in a $29 price target, 300% upside, was a sneaky way for GS to say "I told you so" if it works out
6/6
Dropping in a $29 price target, 300% upside, was a sneaky way for GS to say "I told you so" if it works out
6/6
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
