Thread by @FPL_Architect

GW 4 Thread:

- GW 3 Notes
- Fixture to target
- Player recommendation
- Player to avoid
- Worth consideration
- Bruno replacements
- Clean sheet probabilities
- Captaincy
- Differentials
- Wildcard

#FPL #FPLCommunity

GW 3 Notes - Teams 📝

🟠 Wolves with another good performance, but yet again a 1-0 loss.

🔵 Chelsea - Showed great defensive stability despite being one man down at Anfield. Chelsea can keep a CS against anyone.

⚪️ Spurs - Didn’t really impress, but secured 3 points again.

GW 3 Notes - Players 📝

💎 Torres - 2 goals and 1 assist playing as a striker for Man City 👀

🔴 Greenwood - Keeps scoring despite not having a very high xG. Class finisher!

🟣 Antonio - Another double digit haul, 3 in a row now. Incredible value for money obviously.

GW 4 Fixture to target

🔴 MUN vs NEW

United face Newcastle in a game that can only end in one way. Ronaldo back at Old Trafford against an extremely leaky Newcastle defence. Goals incoming.

GW 4 Player recommendation:

Cristiano Ronaldo is back. I don’t need to tell you why Ronaldo will be a good FPL pick, but I can tell you that the GW 4 fixture is perfect. Newcastle have conceded an xG of 2.55 per game this season, the numbers speak for themselves.

If you’re wildcarding, Ronaldo is probably a must have. If you’re not wildcarding, I would definitely prioritize bringing in Ronaldo, even if it means selling Bruno.

GW 4 Player to avoid:

Scott Carson (4.0) looks like a starter for Man City in GW 4, but I wouldn’t advice Wildcarders to pick him. He will only play one game and then blocks a City triple up, which you will probably want at some time between your first and second WC.

GW 4 Worth consideration

If Firmino is ruled out with a long term injury (Update needed), Diogo Jota suddenly becomes a nailed starter for Liverpool. Costing only 7.6m, he would be one of my first picks in a wildcard team.

Bruno Fernandes Replacements:

In order to get funds for Ronaldo, many are downgrading Bruno this week. Here are my favourite replacements:

1. Jota (7.6) 🔴
2. Greenwood (7.7) 🔴
3. Sarr (6.0) 🟡
4. Traore (6.0) 🟠
5. Torres (7.1) 💎

GW 5 and on: Raphinha (6.5) ⚪️

GW 4 Top 10 Clean sheet probabilities:

CHE: 58%
MUN: 55%
ARS: 44%
EVE: 44%
MCI: 42%
TOT: 42%
BRE: 38%
BHA: 38%
WOL: 38%
LIV: 36%

[@FPL_Salah]

GW 4 Captaincy

1) Cristiano Ronaldo - 💰12.5
Fixture: NEW (H)

The top goalscorer in the history of football is now back in the Premier League, with Newcastle (H) in his first game. He’s very likely to start so if you own Ronaldo, captain Ronaldo.

2) Mohamed Salah - 💰12.5
Fixture: LEE (A)

Leeds have conceded 8 goals in their first 3 games, and now Liverpool come to Elland Road. Captaining Salah is never a bad idea, especially not in a fixture as good as this one.

3) Michail Antonio - 💰7.9
Fixture: CRY (H)

4 goals, 4 assists and 40 FPL points in 3 games for Michail Antonio. Going up against Southampton, who have conceded an xG of 1.95 per game this season, Antonio is no doubt a good captaincy choice.

GW 4 Captaincy - Differential

Mason Greenwood - 💰7.7
Fixture: NEW (H)

3 goals from 11 goal attempts this season for Greenwood who should be nailed to start in GW 4. NEW (H) is a great fixture which means that Greenwood is a good differential captaincy pick.

GW 4 Differential picks:

1️⃣ Adama Traore - 💰6.0
Owned by: 2.8%
Fixture: WAT (A)

2️⃣ Emile Smith-Rowe - 💰5.4
Owned by: 4.8%
Fixture: NOR (H)

3️⃣ Pablo Fornals - 💰6.0
Owned by: 2.5%
Fixture: SOU (A)

All my Wildcard thoughts can be found in the thread I posted last week.

I analyze pros and cons about Wildcarding, fixture swings, differentials and more ⤵️

https://twitter.com/fpl_architect/status/1433089833082179587

Thanks for reading this thread, I hope you found it interesting!

This was the fourth of 38 parts, I will write a GW Thread every week this season. If you liked the format, drop a follow for more threads like this 🙌

♻️ ❤️ appreciated

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

*SOU (A).

Palace was last week...