Thread by @austinschless

In 1964, Albert Goldman referenced the term "Lindy Law."

Then, it had no meaning.

Now, it's recognized as one of the world's most powerful frameworks for predicting the future.

A thread on the "Lindy Effect" and how it will change the way you think...

The "Lindy Effect" is a theory stating the longer something has lasted, the greater likelihood it will continue to last.

In this thread we'll cover:

• What is the "Lindy Effect?"
• How did it come to be?
• 7 examples of "Lindy Effect" today

ps: 2nd example is my fav

The term "Lindy" is referring to Lindy's Deli in NYC.

Lindy, as it's known today, was first referenced in Albert Goldman's article, The New Republic. ​

He writes:

"The life expectancy of a television comedian is proportional to the total amount of his exposure on the medium."

Goldman introduced the Lindy concept, but Benoid Mandelbrot built on it.

He believed the longevity of a comedian was not only determined by their input, but by their output.

The more appearances they would make, the more future appearances they were predicted to make.

Years later, @nntaleb popularized Mandelbrot's concept in his book Antifragile.

This is where he officially coined the term "Lindy Effect."

He agreed with Mandelbrot's definition, but suggested expanding the definition to nonperishable things.

Example: Technology and Ideas

In his book Antifragile, @nntaleb writes:

"If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years."

So who cares?!

Why does it matter that the longer something has lasted, the greater likelihood that it will continue to last?

Here are 7 practical examples of the "Lindy Effect" to help you understand the world better👇

1. "Lindy Effect" for Books:

The longer a book has been in print, the more likely it will continue to be in print.

Lindy:

• ✅ The Wealth of Nations
• ✅ Man's Search for Meaning
• ✅ The Great Gatsby

Not Lindy:

❌ Books that are no longer in print

2. "Lindy Effect" for Exercise:

The longer humans have been performing certain exercises, the more likely humans will continue to perform these exercises.

Lindy:

• ✅ Squatting
• ✅ Running
• ✅ Pressing
• ✅ Deadlifting

Not Lindy:

• ❌ Peloton
• ❌ P90x
• ❌ Zumba

3. "Lindy Effect" for Dieting:

The longer healthy humans have followed certain diets, the more likely healthy humans will continue following certain diets.

Lindy:

✅ Eat real food, not too much, mostly plants.

Not Lindy:

• ❌ Keto
• ❌ Zone
• ❌ Weight Watchers

4. "Lindy Effect" for Caffeine:

The longer humans have been consuming caffeine a certain way, the more likely humans will continue to consume caffeine in the same way.

Lindy:

• ✅ Coffee
• ✅ Tea

Not Lindy:

• ❌ Redbull
• ❌ Monster
• ❌ Bang

5. "Lindy Effect" for Alcohol:

The longer humans have been consuming alcohol a certain way, the more likely they will continue to consume alcohol in the same way.

Lindy:

• ✅ Beer
• ✅ Wine
• ✅ Vodka

Not Lindy:

• ❌ Seltzers
• ❌ Canned Cocktails
• ❌ Canned Wine

6. "Lindy Effect" for Building Wealth:

The longer humans have built wealth a certain way, the more likely they will continue to build wealth in certain ways.

Lindy:
• ✅ Index Funds/ETFs
• ✅ Bonds
• ✅ Real estate

Not Lindy:

• ❌ Alt-Coins
• ❌ Meme Stocks
• ❌ IPOs

7. "Lindy Effect" for Startups

https://twitter.com/naval/status/1158964119023652864

From books to building wealth, the "Lindy Effect" can pretty much be applied to anything!

Just don't apply it to tulips...

https://twitter.com/austinschless/status/1369285600520642560

Retweet the 1st tweet to teach a Twitter friend about the "Lindy Effect":

https://twitter.com/austinschless/status/1436061008531902472?s=20

Follow me @austinschless for more threads on investing and building wealth!