A trio of fighters are making a run on a ship and/or fighters. They came from Miramar. Likely fleet adversary, not a contractor.
Resetting or possible RTB.
OK getting on as SNIPER now so probably VMFT-401 F-5Ns
These guys took a nice little flight over NASNI, the bay and then did a steep 270 descent east of Miramar and entered the overhead at 450knots
This was interesting, they did a sort of offset pattern after the break as traffic (likely hornets) were on final and then if this data is to be believed, they flew extremely close at the same alt to a helo over the highway:
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A year ago we published this very deep dive about the development of Anduril's Fury CCA. At the time I got a LOT of hate mail & comments saying this was vaporware and 'they have zero shot.' Lot's of folks from the big primes told me the same...
We developed this story over years, many interviews, transition after the Anduril acquisition & change from adversary drone to CCA. We had no doubt in our minds that this had a shot.
It was subsequently selected alongside General Atomics in competition for phase 1 CCA contract.
CCA & the larger advanced autonomy uncrewed space it will help open the door to is in many ways a bigger opportunity than any crewed platform. While the contract $ may be smaller early on, whoever gains supremacy here has the best shot at a far less volatile & larger future market
Seeing this widely reported. Satellite imagery doesn't confirm a successful strike on another strategic Russian early warning radar site & low res imagery appears to be misinterpreted by some. Below is an image we obtained from Planet Labs taken at 0500 UTC this morning... 1/x
It shows no outright signs on an attack or major damage to the array or the facility. We must highlight that commercial satellite imagery is limited as to what it can show. Small shrapnel damage could exist that is not apparent, but nothing really looks out of place....
The dark spots on the pavement which some claim from low res imagery are evidence of an attack reduce in size between this image and an image taken an hour later, pointing to them being residual water, not impact or fire damaged areas...
This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, BUT stimulating Iran's most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered.
Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this.
The date on this is wrong, i believe I wrote this in 2016 or 2017, before the suicide drone craze, but here's the background: twz.com/4760/meet-isra…
Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be top target. Hitting standoff weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. Next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. Ball is now in Israel’s court.
The Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program.
Lowest risk response and well within IDF’s organic capabilities is going after IRGC and proxy targets all over the neighborhood, but that may be the least likely option at this point. Still possible.
Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct confrontation with Iran. In the end, that’s who is behind all this. Avoiding such a confrontation is logical on many levels, but the time may come when that’s no longer politically acceptable.
And please remember an outright war with Iran would be extremely dangerous/deadly, potentially VERY expensive, and economically highly disruptive. And what’s the endgame? It would come at a time when the US military is drowning in priorities elsewhere.
Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition...
to many other forms of intelligence gathered on where these missiles are being fired and where they are being stockpiled or moved around like a shell game. This is still imperfect. Funding mobile missile systems and striking them is very challenging. It will be interesting...
what they actually got tonight and how much remains in play. Most of it will likely be the latter as the Houthis have been planning for retaliation and have dealt with fighting the Arabs time sensitive strike efforts for years. But now that the gloves are off, if the Houthis...