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Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
@Aviation_Intel
Sep 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
A trio of fighters are making a run on a ship and/or fighters. They came from Miramar. Likely fleet adversary, not a contractor.
Resetting or possible RTB.
OK getting on as SNIPER now so probably VMFT-401 F-5Ns
These guys took a nice little flight over NASNI, the bay and then did a steep 270 descent east of Miramar and entered the overhead at 450knots
This was interesting, they did a sort of offset pattern after the break as traffic (likely hornets) were on final and then if this data is to be believed, they flew extremely close at the same alt to a helo over the highway:

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More from @Aviation_Intel

Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Apr 19
This may have been a one and done. Hopefully calm going forward, BUT stimulating Iran's most critical air defenses and getting their up-to-date electronic order of battle prior to something larger is a very real tactic, especially using vulnerable decoys. I think the likelihood is that this is not the case, but it still must be considered.
Israel is the absolute king of this exact tactic set and wrote the book on it using drones. They have systems specifically designed for this.
The date on this is wrong, i believe I wrote this in 2016 or 2017, before the suicide drone craze, but here's the background: twz.com/4760/meet-isra…
Read 7 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Apr 14
Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil infrastructure could be top target. Hitting standoff weapons production and installations (much tougher than oil) is another possibility. No way to know but this is new territory. Next 48 hours will be absolutely pivotal. Ball is now in Israel’s court.
The Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program.
Lowest risk response and well within IDF’s organic capabilities is going after IRGC and proxy targets all over the neighborhood, but that may be the least likely option at this point. Still possible.
Read 4 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Jan 28
Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct confrontation with Iran. In the end, that’s who is behind all this. Avoiding such a confrontation is logical on many levels, but the time may come when that’s no longer politically acceptable.
Israel took a swing at the one that this one replaced: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…
And please remember an outright war with Iran would be extremely dangerous/deadly, potentially VERY expensive, and economically highly disruptive. And what’s the endgame? It would come at a time when the US military is drowning in priorities elsewhere.
Read 4 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Jan 12
Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition...
to many other forms of intelligence gathered on where these missiles are being fired and where they are being stockpiled or moved around like a shell game. This is still imperfect. Funding mobile missile systems and striking them is very challenging. It will be interesting...
what they actually got tonight and how much remains in play. Most of it will likely be the latter as the Houthis have been planning for retaliation and have dealt with fighting the Arabs time sensitive strike efforts for years. But now that the gloves are off, if the Houthis...
Read 8 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Oct 9, 2023
Remember Hezbollah is sitting on a stock of anti-ship missiles. They scored a hit on a Sa’ar 5 class corvette off Lebanon 17 years ago. Their capabilities have evolved significantly since then thanks to Iran. They also have many types of loitering munitions that have been used against ships. The US Navy will not be operating in an uncontested environment if Hezbollah joins the conflict. A carrier strike group is the most defended piece of territory on the planet, but non state actors with these weapons have been proven to be a threat (see the Houthis and activities around the southern end of the Red Sea).
And even targeting of US Navy vessels may not be intended if they look to deny/disrupt naval activities in the E. Med. Anti-ship missiles, in many cases, do not work on assured targeting, especially the stuff they have.
Rest assured our crypto and AD focused sailors are brushing up on the latest threat intel on what they have at this time.
Read 11 tweets
Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Oct 8, 2023
If Hezbollah attacks there is nothing in history that will compare to how heavily taxed an integrated air defense system will be like then. Israel’s IADS is the most advanced and layered on earth, but the scale and variety of what will be sent south is unlike anything we’ve seen.
Long range rockets, cruise missiles, suicide drones, etc etc. Iran has armed them to the teeth for many years with increasingly advanced weaponry. The numbers are bewildering. Overwhelm is that strategy.
IDF will do everything possible to strike these weapons ‘left of launch’ in order to erode the volume of fire and the inventory’s potential for sustained bombardment. It’s far tougher than it sounds though. Very easy to see how the conflict widens due to Iran’s place in this.
Read 5 tweets

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