Cases in the UK are going up. We've had high cases for several months now - over 2.7 million confirmed cases since Delta took over in mid May. And no sign of coming down any time soon. 1/9
By nation, Scotland has by far highest rates right now (800/100K people/week). Then come NI & Wales - but NI is decreasing & Wales increasing. Plus Wales has v high positivity rates - that's bad.
England is flattest & lowest right now. Everywhere way higher than year ago. 2/9
Geographically we can see the high numbers in Scotland, NI and Wales. In England cases are highest in the North and parts of Midlands (again), and the SW. English cases flat in adults but rising steeply in under 20s... 3/9
In terms of hospitalisations, NI has very high number of people in hospital but it's flattening (now that cases there are falling). But Scotland and Wales are on steep upwards trajectory.
English hospital occupancy climbing slowly but surely - burden mostly in North again. 4/9
In terms of admissions, levels in England are far lower than Jan peak... but this week we reached 900 a day for first time since February. And we've had high levels for a long time - adding over 5K admissions a week for several weeks now. 5/9
For Scotland, admissions are increasing rapidly again after July dip, following recent v high cases. Now over half of January peak.
Vaccines have weakened the link a lot but it's still there, and cases have consequences. 6/9
Deaths are going up slowly but they are going up. While way lower than January, we are 10x higher than Spring. Since 1 July more than 5,000 people have died.
Right now, about 1,000 people are dying with Covid every week. I don't think we should be OK with this. 7/9
While vaccines are v protective, a lot of the people dying are vulnerable older people.
We should be protecting our frail members of society by lowering community transmission, not just shrugging our shoulders.
We are also causing harm by overburdening NHS. 8/9
And yes, it's perfectly possible to be open and keep Delta down in a highly vaccinated population through sensible additional mitigations (such as masks & ventilation) - many European countries have manged it. 9/9
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The pandemic is as bad as it ever was for babies - in year to Aug 2023, 6,300 babies under 1 were admitted to hospital wholly or partly BECAUSE of Covid.
They are ONLY age group where admissions have NOT gone down over time 1/17
Our study, led by Prof @katebrown220, looked at all hospitalisations in England in children with a Covid diagnosis or positive test from Aug 2020-Aug 2023.
We then *excluded* all admissions where a Covid diagnosis was incidental (ie not why they were in hospital)
2/17
Infants (babies under 1) are generally at higher risk from respiratory infections, plus they are the age group that, if infected, are overwhelmingly meeting the virus for the first time.
They are not vaccinated and have not had it before. 3/17
Prof @Kevin_Fong giving the most devastating and moving testimony to the Covid Inquiry of visiting hospital intensive care units at the height of the second wave in late Dec 2020.
The unimaginable scale of death, the trauma, the loss of hope.
Please watch this 2min clip.
And here he breaks down while explaining the absolute trauma experienced by smaller hospitals in particular - the "healthier" ICU patients were transferred out, leaving them coping with so much death.
They felt so alone.
Here Prof Fong explains how every nurse he met was traumatised by watching patients die, being only able to hold up ipads to their relatives and how it went against their normal practice of trying to ensure a dignified death, with family there.
🧵War causes direct civilian deaths but also indirect deaths over the following years.
Recent paper estimates eventual total direct & indirect deaths in Gaza attributable to the war - 10% of entire pop'n.
I want to explain these estimates and why deaths must be counted. 1/13
Why count casualties from war anyway? For moral, legal and strategic reasons.
1 - owe it to those who have died
2 - International law says must count & identify dead as far as possible
3 - monitor progress of war & learn from tactics
2/13
There are direct and indirect casualties of war. Direct deaths include those who killed by fighting or bombs.
Indirect deaths are those that die when they would otherwise have lived because of one or more of: lack of food, healthcare, housing, sanitation, income, hope. 3/13
THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues.
Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses.
If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid.
The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8
But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England.
Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8
Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8