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Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
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11 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Ayman al-Zawahiri survived 20 years of America's war and countless bad takes. In the newly released video, he praises Hurras al-Din's Jan. 1, 2021 attack on a Russian base in Raqqa, Syria. So either this is his ghost or, you know, he didn't die last year.
In addition, all of the promotional material for the video and his newly released 852-page book is captioned: "May Allah Protect Him." The introduction for the book he authored is dated April 2021.
Keep in mind that Zawahiri is older, a doctor, and we are living in the age of COVID. He's not dumb. That's influenced his protocols. He also knows that the U.S. orchestrated a campaign to get as many AQ leaders as possible in 2019 and 2020 - more intense than usual.
For instance, the U.S./Afghan forces killed Husam Abd-al-Ra’uf, one of Zawahiri's oldest and closest lieutenants, in Afghanistan in Oct. 2020. Zawahiri knew there was a real risk that the U.S. was closing in on him. longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/…
A lot of the commentary is completely lacking the type of basic context mentioned above. These guys don't live in a vacuum. Now that he's not dead everyone can go back to pretending he isn't relevant anyway.

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More from @thomasjoscelyn

Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
10 Sep
1. Note: “Sirajuddin Haqqani also had close relations with a prominent al Qaeda commander, Abdul Rauf Zakir, who was responsible for protecting Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza, according to U.S. intelligence.” - from ⁦@nancyayoussef⁩ & ⁦@SuneEngel⁩ wsj.com/articles/in-ta…
2. Abdul Rauf Zakir is Qari Zakir - a U.S. designated terrorist and a key member of the so-called Haqqani Network. Zakir oversaw suicide attacks. We heard he was killed alongside Hamza bin Laden.
3. When the Trump White House announced Hamza bin Laden’s death in 2019, it put out a cryptic statement, which didn’t explain key details. As I assessed at the time:

longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/…
Read 6 tweets
Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
10 Sep
1. Ibrahim Haqqani, the brother Jalaluddin, has been making appearances in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Below he (left) is seen with Hamid Karzai. A file recovered in Osama bin Laden compound shows that he acted as a "guarantor" for a $5 million ransom payment AQ received.
2. Al Qaeda took an Afghan ambassador hostage and, in the spring of 2010, agreed to set him free for a $5 million ransom payment. Several of Osama bin Laden's files discuss the ransom, which was split into two increments: $2 million and then $3 million.
3. The Haqqanis mediated the ransom payment. Al-Haji Ibrahim Haqqani is listed as a key guarantor for the exchange:
Read 10 tweets
Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
8 Sep
1. The Taliban's list of leaders reveals a key U.S. failure. Many of the Taliban's new leaders are actually veterans who served in the Taliban's regime prior to 9/11. Others have been senior figures for much of the two decades since. They were simply waiting to take over again.
2. This illustrates the importance of Pakistan's safe havens -- which kept many Taliban leaders alive and allowed them to direct the war for 20 years. Others were captured and let go - for example, the five Taliban leaders held at Guantanamo who were exchanged for Bowe Bergdahl.
3. So when I say "new leaders," the point is they aren't new at all. Many of them were sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council as far back as Jan. & Feb. 2001. Think about that! Taliban leaders who were in charge more than 20 years ago are right back where they were.
Read 6 tweets
Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
7 Sep
“We will never give up Osama [bin Laden] at any price,” Mullah Hassan Akhund said in Oct. 1999. He was responding to a U.N. demand. See below.

Today, Akhund was named the “head of state” for the Taliban’s resurrected Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
Reminder: Mullah Omar himself rejected turning over Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 hijackings. From Sept. 26, 2001:
theguardian.com/world/2001/sep…
You can find several more quotes from Mullah Omar - the actual decision-maker - from Sept. 2001 through May 2002 on the thread below. See also the quotes from Jalaluddin Haqqani - who was responsible for protecting OBL while leading the Taliban's forces.
Read 5 tweets
Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
7 Sep
1. Some notes on who's who in the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The "acting interior minister" is Sirajuddin Haqqani. He's *very* close with al Qaeda. He's wanted by the U.S. and has a $10 million bounty on his head: rewardsforjustice.net/english/siraju…
2. Khalil Haqqani (Sirajuddin's uncle) is the minister of refugees. He's a U.S.-designated terrorist tied to al Qaeda as well:
treasury.gov/press-center/p…
3. I should have started this thread by noting that of course Hibatullah Akhundzada is the "Emir of the Faithful" and above all others. Ayman al-Zawahiri has sworn his allegiance to him.
Read 6 tweets
Thomas Joscelyn Profile picture
7 Sep
1. It appears that 4 of the 5 ex-Guantanamo detainees exchanged for Bowe Bergdahl in 2014 have senior positions in the Taliban’s resurrected Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
2. Khairullah Khairkhwa is the acting minister for information and culture.
Noorullah Noori is the acting minister of borders and tribal affairs.
Abdul Haq Wasiq is the acting director of intelligence.
Mohammad Fazl is the deputy defense minister.
3. The fifth ex-Guantanamo detainee exchanged for Bergdahl is Mohammad Nabi Omari, who was reportedly named the governor of Khost. You can read about all five here -- in a piece from 2014:
longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/…
Read 6 tweets

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