I think Chukwuma Soludo of APGA seems to be the best candidate of the lot in the Anambra elections. Unfortunately that election may not hold as can be seen from the strict observance of IPOB's #SitAtHome calls in the state. As it is, 3 scenerios may emerge in it's aftermath.
The first scenerio is that INEC may likely go ahead and declare a grossly controversial result from the very few voters that may likely defy the order amidst the voter apathy. This as expected will be highly flawed due to inadequate monitoring of the polls for obvious reasons.
Scenerio two is that Anambra will get the Imo State treatment which is basically, declaration of results without due consideration to the trajectory of candidate/party popularity. In this case, the APC candidate, though highly unpopular, will be declared winner of the polls.
The 3rd and most likely scenerio is declaration of a state of emergency in Anambra by the president, citing civil breakdown of law and order, and the appointment of a military or civilian administrator for six months at the first instance pending a clearer environment for a...
new poll date. In my view, this is the most likely scenerio. It is constitutional and has had precedence under President Obasanjo's tenure, when he declared a state of emergency in Plateau State in 2004 because of ethnic and religious strifes in the state.
Such a declaration is renewable for another six months if the condition of the state remains unchanged. Section 305 of the 1999 constitution gives a legal basis for this action.
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