Thread by @josafiend

Some #F1 maths is about to happen. Strap in.
A little thought popped into my head about the title race and the ongoing attempted murders incidents between Lewis and Max, so I thought I’d put something down on paper
#MaxVerstappen #LewisHamilton #ItalianGP
(1/14)

I asked myself a question:
What if Max conceded the corners at Silverstone and Monza and went onto finish the race? What would the points margins look like?

Currently the championship looks like this:

Max: 226.5
Lewis: 221.5
(5 points difference)

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Let’s go back to Silverstone to begin with and look at the eventual result. Lewis wins (25 points) and Max is a DNF (0 points).

If Max were to concede the corner at Copse, there were two potential outcomes:

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1. Lewis goes onto win the race (25), with Max finishing second (18).
2. Max eventually overtakes Lewis and goes onto win (25), with Lewis finishing second (18).

(This is based only on these two outcomes, barring any bad pitstops, mechanical brake downs etc).

(4/14)

Now let’s rewind a couple of hours to the race we’ve just had at Monza and look at this result. Both drivers DNF (0 points).

If Max were to concede the chicane at turn one, there are (again) two potential outcomes:

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1. Lewis goes onto win the race (25), with Max finishing second (18).
2. Max eventually overtakes Lewis and goes onto win (25), with Lewis finishing second (18).

So here comes the maths...

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If Lewis wins both Silverstone and Monza, and Max finishes in second:
Max: 226.5 + 18 + 18 = 262.5
Lewis: 221.5 + 25 = 246.5 - total includes Silverstone win (25)
(16 points difference)

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If Max wins both Silverstone and Monza, and Lewis finishes in second:
Max: 226.5 + 25 + 25 = 276.5
Lewis: 221.5 - 25 + 18 + 18 = 232.5
(44 points difference)

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If Lewis and Max win one of these races each and finish second in the other:
Max: 226.5 + 18 + 25 = 269.6
Lewis: 221.5 + 18 = 239.5 - total includes Silverstone win (25)
(30 points difference)

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The point that I’m trying to make here is that by being so aggressive and going for the maximum points points haul, Max is actually damaging his title chances. In all three of these scenarios Max’s lead in the championship has benefited from him conceding the corners and
(10/14)

finishing the race either behind Lewis, or successfully challenging him for the lead later in the race.

Like I said, these are very much mathematical (a feat I find hysterical given I suck at numbers) and don’t account for human or mechanical failure. They’re solely
(11/14)

situational, but I think this ‘do or die’ attitude is quite interesting, as it shows that not only is Max not thinking about the bigger picture, but the team as a whole is only interested in the most aggressive approach. Lewis may have got called out for being less
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'elbows out’ in the past, but this strategy would have genuinely benefited Max this season and, arguably, if the championship comes down to anything up to 44 points, Max and Red Bull can’t really look at Lewis as the sole contributor to that failure.
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I’m going to hang my calculator back up on it’s dusty hook now. Hopefully I never have to use it again.
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#Formula1 @MercedesAMGF1 @redbullracing @LewisHamilton @Max33Verstappen @F1 @SkySportsF1 @CroftyF1 @MBrundleF1 @karunchandhok

Be interested to know what the real experts think about this.. I'm looking at you @chainbear @TomMcCluskey_ @TommyWTF1 @katyfairman @JessMcF1 @FormulaNerds