Thread by @2o2es

Let's talk about Artvatars.

🦖🧵 megathread 🧵🦖

Before we begin, a disclaimer.

I'm the largest @artvatars bagholder by a long shot. I'm very bullish on the long-term value of this project, but I'm not here to shill.

Free info is worth what you paid for it. Buy what you like and don't listen to idiots like me on the internet.

I simply want to share my thoughts on why I believe this project stands out from the pack, and how I see it holding and gaining recognition over time.

I also want to challenge collectors to rethink their ideas about rarity and collectability.

Quick QRD on Artvatars:

1) 63 top artists supplied 88 unique avatars on a layered template, done in their own style.

(example submissions by @dr01d_visuals, @elohprojects, @TrentKuhnArt, @markinducil)

2) The submitted images were sliced up, shuffled and recombined by an algorithm to generate unique avatars, each one a 1/1 collaborative work of art.

Features:
a) Frame, Background
b) Forehead, Eyes, Ears, Mouth, Shoulders
c) Optional: Hair, Mustache, Hat, Glasses

There is one more very rare "Special" trait which can be anything from a lip piercing to a pet shadow snake.

Examples shown: @ruffensteint hands, @money_alotta Angels, @planttdaddii Orchids, @TrentKuhnArt Earring

Note: A 64th artist participated, but they did not submit a complete avatar. Their work only appears as rare optional accessories (glasses, mustache, special eyes / eyebrows / earring).

This artist is @hackatao, you may have heard of them.

Finally, we have what are known as "Pure Breeds". These are the raw, complete images submitted by each artist that were inserted into the distribution as rare 1/1 drops.

Generally, these pieces command a premium and are currently among the most sought-after in the collection.

Two main reasons why I think @artvatars will find their place in more and more top collections:

1) Historic significance as a first-mover on Layer 2

2) Potential utility as a "skeleton key" (I'll explain)

Projects with historical significance have gained recognition and deserve a lot of respect. Collectors and archivists appreciate the trailblazers.

Artvatars was the first major art project that launched on Layer 2 (Polygon).

Minting, trading and transferring them costs no gas.

Soon, it will be possible to bridge Artvatars to Ethereum, at which point they will be no different than any other token on Mainnet.

This project will not be fully recognized or appreciated in this regard until we fondly look back on it after the 2021 Gas Wars.

Something else worth noting:

Artvatars was the largest ever collaboration of artists (64) on one project. I believe it still holds that record to this day, correct me if I'm wrong.

In any case, the record will be surpassed some day, but this will remain a historic milestone.

On that topic, my thoughts on the potential for Artvatars to become "Skeleton Keys"

Let's look at Artvatar #6662, featuring components from 11 different artists. If you hold this token, you're instantly a collector of all of them. A great on-ramp to give yourself broad exposure.

The value of this utility will depend on how the artists choose to use it, and to some extent what the team does to encourage adoption.

Imagine your Artvatar earning you airdrops / whitelist from MULTIPLE artists because it contains their components (or a specific combination).

Already running with it: @bryanbrinkman airdropped a @decentraland wearable to all holders of Artvatars with his cloudy hat. Ironically, despite owning over 300 Artvatars I was somehow missing this particular piece.

This is just one small example. The potential is massive.

Deep dives next...

Let's take a quick break here and just look at some nice @artvatars.

Hope everyone is having a great evening.

Thinking about collecting? Let's do some research together. Hopefully you find this useful.

We'll go over 3 broad categories of desirability that I've seen develop: quantitative (numbers-based), qualitative (subjective) and miscellaneous...

Perhaps not exhaustive, but I do me.

Categories:

1) Quantitative:
Mint Number
Rarity Score (per Artvatars metadata)
Actual Rarity (per analysis tools)
Meta (defined by the Community)

2) Qualitative:
Aesthetics
Contributing Artists
Specific Components

3) Other:
Pure Breeds
Special Editions

Aesthetics are an underlying driver of value in any category. A beautiful Artvatar can jump out and command a much higher price than any intrinsic or derivative classification will justify.

I won't spend much time discussing aesthetics, other than to say it breaks all rules.

First up, let's tackle the bear in the room: the rarity score.

If you ask the Artvatars community about the rarity scoring system, you'll get a range of responses: most of them either negative (they hate it); or dismissive (they say they ignore it).

I happen to think it's a bit heavy-handed, but also brilliant. Allow me to explain.

To dig into this, we first need to understand what the score represents.

When creating Artvatars, @MantaXR assigned a numeric value to each contributing artist. The actual number is arbitrary, but it was based on the relative value of each artist's works on the secondary market.

The exact scoring system has not been shared, but many can be derived by looking at the "pure breeds" that dropped during minting. Dividing the total score of these pieces by the number of traits gives the value of each component.

Ex: (639 / 9) = 71 for LEVITATE (Artvatar #2662)

Comparison:
#1124 by CosmoZach (245 / 7 = 35 per slice)
#1785 by Glass Crane (736 / 8 = 92 per slice)

At first glance, this might seem unnecessary, or even discriminatory.

Why not bring in all artists on an even playing field and let the market determine desirability and value?

Two reasons.

First, it serves as a snapshot in time. Many artists that came in with a lower score in April will take off (or have already started to).

Monfa & Tom Badley were Common in this series. This sounds crazy now, and it will sound ludicrous in a year. That's cool.

The second reason is what I call an emergent exposure curve. This is where things get innovative, and I haven't seen this done or attempted anywhere else.

There are 4,014 Commons (59.7%), 1,399 Uncommons (20.8%), 889 Rares (13.2%), 327 Legendaries (4.9%) and 88 Mythics (1.3%).

If you look at individual components, you'll find high distributions for artists with high rarity score.

Ex: Javier Arres eyes appear on 90 Artvatars. This is in the top 10 most commonly distributed despite Javier being one of the highest rarity artists (78 points per piece).

This seems a bit counterintuitive, but really it just tells us that there was more to the algorithm than simply limiting the distribution of high-scoring individual components.

More importantly, this means the lesser-known artists gain the benefit of higher relative exposure.

In order for there to be more Commons than Rares, lower scoring components must be present in a higher proportion across the collection. More specifically, they need to be paired up with the highest scoring components at a much higher frequency to control the score distribution.

So, the lesser-known artists are paired up with the big guys at a higher frequency than the big guys appearing together.

In other words, Mythics & Legendaries are All-Star Cards (more value today). Commons are Rookie Cards (more potential delta over time).

Make sense?

Collectors will seek out Artvatars featuring their favorite artists (as of today). On average, they'll accumulate a larger number of components by lesser-known artists.

Through this process, smaller artists gain a larger proportion of new collectors and fans. That's brilliant.

Moving on, let's look at actual rarity. That is, rarity determined by the scarcity of the components that comprise each Artvatar.

Rarity tools doesn't currently track Layer 2 projects, but the folks over at NFT Rarity have a ranking list for Artvatars.

nftrarity.net/artvatars

The problem with defining rarity in these terms for Artvatars is that everything is ultra-rare.

There are only 107 / 6720 Artvatars (1.59%) that have "Bryan Brinkman 1" shoulders, and this is the most common component across the set. Everything else is even more rare than this.

I don't fault anyone for using this ranking. Those at the top of the list deserve high valuation... but the top 100 is really just a list of Artvatars with Special traits.

Outside of top 25, I think you're better off just targeting your favorite Specials if this is your angle.

Speaking of low distribution, there are a couple of notable non-Special components that turned out to be very rare:

Cody Seekins 2 Mustache (only 16 exist)
Javier Arres 2 Background (only 7 exist)

These have much lower distribution than the average in their categories. #FYI

Let's move on to meta.

For me, this is where things get fun and interesting... letting the community and the market find and create new vectors of desirability to define what is really valuable to collectors.

Bonsai (@zenft_) community made it popular to value the lack of traits just as much (or more than) the presence of rare ones.

Let's look at trait count distribution for Artvatars:

15 - 0.46%
14 - 4.36%
13 - 14.53%
12 - 32.13%
11 - 39.85%
10 - 8.66%

See anything interesting?

Many @artvatars collectors share a sentiment that favors simple aesthetics; however, I have not seen 10T Artvatars separate themselves from the pack yet. They are very commonly found at floor price.

Zen Artvatars are highly underappreciated and undervalued in my opinion.

Note that there is a subset of 10-trait Artvatars that I call "The Headless Ones"

Certain large hats actually overwrite the Forehead slot. Thus, it is possible to have a 10T Artvatar with a hat and no forehead.

Examples:
#2986 (Javier Arres 1 hat)
#1315 (MarE hat)

When you account for the Headless imposters, true 10T Zen Artvatars (with no hat) are even more rare than the trait count distribution indicates.

Having said that, don't dismiss Headless Ones. They are exceedingly rare and I foresee a strong market around them as well.

Another meta that hasn't developed to any level of maturity yet is Repeats...

For these I like to use Poker lingo: Pair, Three-of-a-Kind etc. (to indicate multiple components of the same base piece appearing on the same Artvatar)

Combine these for Two-Pair, Full-House etc.

Some combos are naturally more desirable than others. Matching two or more foreground features (eyes, ears, forehead, mouth, shoulders) is preferable to matching a facial feature with a frame or background.

(above is not set in stone, just my opinion)

Adjacent matching components (shoulders and mouth, eyes and ears, etc.) look awesome, as do "Brackets" (matching mouth and forehead with contrasting eyes).

In this context, Artvatar #6647 is something really special.

The chances of rolling matching shoulders (1/88), mouth (1/88), eyes (1/88) and glasses (1/77 x 0.317) from the same piece are just shy of astronomical.

The last items we'll cover are the Pure Breeds (full-art pieces that were minted from the contract) and Special Editions (the remaining full-art pieces released via auctions).

Collection Links:
Pure Breeds: opensea.io/collection/art…
Special Editions: opensea.io/collection/art…

I'll start this section off by mentioning that I personally do not own any Pure Breeds or SEs, and I am not currently targeting any.

In my opinion, the magic of Artvatars lies in the splicing and recombination of components to create something greater than the sum of its parts.

While the Pure Breeds are great art in their own right, they are missing this appeal for me as a collector.

Having said that, I think the Pure Breeds and SEs will hold high value, as much as any other 1/1 piece by the same artist, with an added boost for historical significance.

For many, there are Artvatars that come together so well that they surpass the aesthetics of the art from which they're comprised.

Others will look at true scarcity and go after repeats, combinations and other traits that are much more rare than the Pure Breed drop chance.

Still others will follow meta and gravitate towards Zen Artvatars or some other community-defined classification.

Regardless of the path or justification, I firmly believe that a high percentage of rolled Artvatars will exceed the values of the Pure Breeds and SEs over time.

Above all, as with anything, just collect what you like.

As I've covered here, there are so many metrics by which one might derive value, there's no point worrying about rarity or comparatives.

Look for art that connects with you and รקคгкร ן๏ץ

I hope someone out there finds this dump useful if not enjoyable.

Hit me up in DMs or on Discord with any questions.

(before you ask: if it ain't listed i ain't selling)

Links

Website: artvatars.com
Opensea: opensea.io/collection/art…
Opensea (SE): opensea.io/collection/art…
Discord: discord.gg/r5vfXurvmn