Thread on the group stage before MD1:


A bit unlucky to lose Lewa in the QF last year, still one of the heavier favorites for the CL title. Lead Bundesliga in xG and xGC despite having already played Gladbach and Leipzig away.
New Trainer Nagelsmann is as good as advertised. I personally thought he'd implement a 3atb but so far it's been the same old 4231. With Upamecano on board and a stronger emphasis on controlling transitions, Bayern have been a bit more solid in defense thus far.
While the attack is still devastating, as Musiala reaches another level in his development. There are plenty of fantasy options on offer here: Neuer (G, 6.0) is a good set-and-forget while rotating well with the budget-friendly Destanoglu (G, 4.0).
Take your pick between set-piece maestro Kimmich (D, 6.5), open-play menace Davies (D, 6.0) and BR monster Upa (D, 5.5). In the Bundesliga this season, Davies and Kimmich are neck and neck in xA (Kimmich has 1 more assist), while Davies has a slight edge in xG.
After an up-and-down season following his breakout year, Davies has looked electric so far. Only concern I have is that Nagelsmann wants Sane on the left now, and both Davies and Sane tend to operate wide; though this wasn't much of an issue against Leipzig at the weekend.
Upa last year played for Nagelsmann at Leipzig and recorded 10.2 BRp90. That's absurd. If he's a more prominent SP threat he'll be a no-brainer pick in my eyes. Pavard (D, 5.0) should start at RB but there are better options at his price.
In attack, Lewandowski (F, 11.5) is still the man. What's impressive is that despite scoring 6 in 4, he's underperforming his NPxG! With Haaland virtually a lock in most fantasy CL teams, Lewandowski is a great pick as a captain option on a different day.
Other than that, there are RW Gnabry (M, 10.0), LW Sane (M, 9.0), and CM Goretzka (M, 7.5). The wingers are truly boom-or-bust, they can explode for 2 or 3 returns or they can be subbed for Musiala at the hour mark. Might be a bit risky in MD2, 3 and 6 when Bayern play on 2nd day
Meanwhile Goretzka hasn't done much this season, but his pedigree and this season's xG (1.19, 2nd in Bayern) suggest a goal is around the corner. Thought with Sabitzer in the fold and his injury-proneness, his minutes might be managed a bit.

We haven't seen how this team looks like without Griezmann yet, but the rest of the team is fairly settled. Koeman has reverted to the 433, and the team has done OK although tougher tests await.
It's nice that the Bayern fixtures bookend their CL group stage, the run in the middle is very enticing to invest. In defense, Alba (D, 6.0) is still the most attacking pick. With Emerson gone, the attacking Dest (D, 5.0) is more secure at RB although a doubt to play MD1.
New signing Eric (D, 5.0) has formed a partnership with Pique in the middle, although judging by his fbref profile, not much of a BR guy. In attack Memphis (F, 8.5) is undoubtedly the main man for the team. He has looked really lively, trailing only 5 players in La Liga in NPxG.
What a player. With Messi gone I expect him to be on pens too, along with the SPs. He can be a good player for your fantasy front line to afford more expensive options elsewhere. Other than that Luuk de Jong's arrival has dampened Braithwaite's prospect.
Frenkie (M, 7.0) is class irl and is trickling assists while arriving in the box. There are certainly worse options out there.

Running the table in their domestic league but as we saw last year, they weren't so convincing in the group stage and I'm not sure if that will change this year given their opponents. Only guy I'm interested is Tsygankov (M, 7.5) who is on pens.

Also running the table in their league which is a top 5 league in terms of UEFA coefficient. Dangerous team with a coach, Jorge Jesus, that has been there done that. Tough draw for them but they will not make it easy for the big teams.
They typically play a 3atb, which makes LWB Grimaldo (D, 4.5) an incredible option. He notched 10A in the league last campaign and has already gotten 1G 2A in 4. CB Otamendi (D, 4.5) can be a BR and SP alternative although a bit YC prone.
Pizzi should be on pens but no longer a starter, so I'm not sure who will take them for SLB. The front 3 of newly-signed CF Yaremchuk (F, 7.0), LW Everton (M, 6.5), and RW Rafa Silva (M, 7.0) is quite exciting though. I'd go with the Ukranian man who has had 2G 4A in 6 games.
Also, Vlachodimos (G, 4.5) rotates fairly well with Destanoglu with the Kyiv games being on the same MD with the BVB games. In tougher matchups for SLB, Destanoglu only has to face Sporting and Ajax.
So Gnabry and Coman are doubts to play MD1. Both Sane and Musiala (M, 6.5) are viable then, Musiala especially because he might even keep his place later in the GS, or come on and do something. Really really like him
Barca lose Braithwaite to a serious injury. Well, Luuk (F, 7.5) is viable now. It also appears that Araujo is preferred at CB next to Pique in MD1. I'll just touch Alba and Pique in the defense, in that case. If Koeman plays 3atb, Memphis (CF) and Alba (LWB) will benefit as well.
UEFA.com has Taarabt in the XI in place of Everton. I guess I'll just consider Rafa and Yaremchuk in attack. It's likely they'll play 3atb after registering Morato, so Grimaldo still stands out.
Group F: MAN UTD

We all know what this team is about don't we. The quality in the team plus the relatively kind GS draw warrant investment, although I'd think twice before looking at their defensive assets.
De Gea (G, 5.5), similar to Neuer, is set-and-forget plus good rotation with Destanoglu. In defense Shaw (D, 6.0) is surely worth 0.5 more than the CBs with his chance creation, though with Utd's issues defending transitions, CS might be hard to come by.
AWB (D, 5.0) wasn't that good in BR last year (5.88 p90) so I'd not go here despite his price tag and fixtures. Utd attack though is looking great, especially at home, where they will play MD2 and MD3 at. CR7 (F, 11.0) surely is the pick of this with his role as the focal point.
It remains to be seen how pens shape up for him and Bruno but even without pens, Ronaldo has CL pedigree and the volume of shots to justify his price tag. I especially like him if you own Haaland because this is another captain option on a different day.
Elsewhere Greenwood (F, 8.0) is reverse OOP, which is a shame considering how good he's been for the season. I'd wait and see with him while Memphis is just 0.5 away. Bruno (M, 10.5) feels overpriced with Ronaldo in. Pogba (M, 8.5) should offer better value as a chance creator.

They have not started the season well with the squad turnover and the Muriel injury. Atalanta's style of play should play right into Utd's hands. This is still a good team though, I expect them to go through to R16.
It's still early to judge how good La Dea's defense is compared to last year with the team constantly changing, but losing Romero while gaining Musso in goal and Demiral in his place is a minor net negative imo. Demiral hasn't started the last 2 and didn't post good BR numbers
at Juve last CL season so I'd avoid. I do like Musso (G, 4.5) though, he's arguably better than Gollini and of course, rotates well with the Besiktas goalie that I've mentioned countless times. Gosens (D, 5.5) is still playing like a left-winger this season, though no returns yet
Maehle (D, 5.0) is the equivalent on the other side but for me he has a shorter leash due to the signing of Zappacosta. It helps him that Hateboer is not expected to return until another month or two. Alternatively, Toloi and Djimsiti (D, 5.0) averaged over 7 BR p90 last season.
Gasperini has built an impressive squad with 8 viable options for the 2 CM roles and 2 CAM roles supporting the striker up front. I'd not even bother to guess who to pick here though Malinovskyi (M, 7.5) is up the pecking order for sure with his ridiculous form end of last season
He's really good for sure but I don't feel super confident the minutes will be enough with Pessina, Miranchuk and Ilicic lurking. It will be enough though for Zapata (F, 9.5) with Muriel hurt until the next IB, and we know how good he was last year in the CL. He's on pens too.

Also slow start to their domestic campaign. Last year Villarreal had a top-4 attack in La Liga and it's Emery so defense is going to be sound, but this season the team so far are not attacking that well (just 2.26 xG in 3 games). We'll see if they turn up in the CL.
The team is usually set up in a 442 or 433. Either way, except LB, the back 5 is settled with Rulli (G, 4.5), perhaps surprisingly, getting the nod over Asenjo. Both the CBs, Albiol (D, 4.5) and Pau (D, 5.0), are not the aggressor type according to fbref so BRs might be scarce.
RB Foyth (D, 4.5) is quite aggressive on the other hand. It's just that he carries zero attacking threat. At LB there are 3 viable candidates to play: A. Moreno (D, 4.0), Pedraza and Estupinan. With a few injuries Emery even pushed A. Moreno up at LM in a few games this season.
Now with Yeremi Pino and Danjuma capable there, it's encouraging that in various sources he's still predicted to start at LB over Pedraza. He is a worthwhile gamble for sure, though personally I'd pay up to get Foyth's BR or Rulli in goal to rotate with the BJK man.
In attack I really like the new signing Boulaye Dia (F, 6.5). He's a fine option for sure although if you spend 2.0 more, you'll get their talisman Gerard (F, 8.5) who scored 30 last season and is on pens. Villarreal might not score many but expect him to be involved when they do

Were head and shoulders the best team in Switzerland last season and even upset Leverkusen in the Europa with Seoane, the current Leverkusen manager, at the helm. I just don't think they're that good without him (not the best start to the current season).

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More from @sulleymike

13 Sep

Defending Ligue 1 champions but now just a shadow of themselves with key departures and injuries. Renato Sanches' long term injury certainly didn't help, as were the transfers of Maignan to Milan and Soumare to Leicester. But the worst one is Galtier to Nice.
He is truly the mastermind behind their title-winning campaign. LOSC had a very stout defense under him and now Nice haven't conceded a goal yet in 4 games under him. His successor, Gourvennec, last oversaw Guingamp to Ligue 1 relegation in 18/19 and now Lille are leaking goals.
I just can't bring myself to invest in their defense. Sure, Grbic (G, 4.5) and Reinildo (D, 4.5) are cheap but all the teams in this group have decent attacks. In attack it's a revolving door of guys except for the evergreen Burak (F, 8.0) who is on pens.
Read 143 tweets
7 Oct 20

Thread on the 32 teams in the group stage:


Top 2 teams in the competition, so their assets are priced as such. They also play Atleti the first game so I am tempted to avoid in the first Matchday.
Bayern though have an incredible attack. Lewandowski (12m) is on pens and sneakily gets assists, Muller (10m) is so good and his place is so secure, Gnabry (10m) a shout for a hattrick every game. Sane (9.5m) same thing but he will have a shorter leash than others.
No matter what, Kimmich (6.5m) will play at midfield and now with the addition of Roca, might even be able to get forward and chip in goals, in addition to his set-pieces and trade-mark crossing from wide. Very very good option at DEF.
Read 184 tweets

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