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Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
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13 Sep, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Europe’s energy crunch is deepening 🚨

With about a month to go before the start of the heating season, Europe doesn’t have enough natural gas in storage and isn’t building inventories fast enough either. Gas and power prices are hitting new records

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Europe is struggling to refill natural gas inventories, with flows from No. 2 supplier Norway currently limited due to maintenance

Top seller Russia is “is coming off an extended period of inexplicably low supply” at a time when US deliveries of LNG can’t be increased further
Bloomberg wrote in late-June that there just isn't enough natural gas to calm down the global rally in prices

TTF has DOUBLED since the article was published

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And what happens when there is a natural gas supply crunch?

A "simply incredible" surge in the price of electricity

And the energy crunch isn't just isolated to Europe...

🇺🇸 US natural gas prices have jumped to the highest level in 7 years. Shale drillers haven't been able to lift production fast enough to refill seasonally low inventories, while LNG exports are near an all-time high
Germany’s power price traded above 100 euros/MWh for the first time, boosted by the natural gas supply crunch 🇩🇪

Germany relies on fossil fuels for more than 1/3rd of its electricity, and soaring costs set to boost bills for millions of consumers

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
9 Sep
LNG shipments tagged “carbon neutral” are gaining popularity in Asia, despite criticism that the offsets used don’t actually cancel out emissions from the fuel 🏭

Japan, which is looking for ways to cut emissions, continues to be the main destination 🇯🇵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In the past month, BP and Petronas delivered so-called green cargoes to customers in N. Asia

However, carbon credits purchased for the shipments didn’t cover emissions from combustion of the natural gas, which produces roughly 70% of total emissions

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Critics, including those from within the industry, have called for more transparency when it comes to offsetting emissions from fossil fuels with carbon credits

ft.com/content/cfaa16…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
8 Sep
North Asia spot LNG prices have rallied above $20/mmbtu, an all-time high for this time of year 📈

Asian buyers are ramping up competition with Europe for available LNG cargoes, while several outages hamper global supply

In other words: When Europe gas prices rise, JKM follows
To understand what's happening in Asia, you gotta watch Europe

It's normal for LNG prices to spike during extreme weather events in the summer and winter (for example, check out Jan. 2021)

But it is odd for prices to be SO high in September, when utilities aren't yet scrambling for shipments of the super-chilled fuel
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
8 Sep
Kono Taro, who has emerged as a contender to be Japan's next prime minister, says he approves of restarting nuclear reactors 🇯🇵 ☢️

Japan needs nuclear power amid its effort to hit net zero emissions, Kono said. He has opposed nuclear power in the past

jiji.com/jc/article?k=2…
“I think nuclear power will go away at some point, but I don’t intend to get rid of it tomorrow or next year,” Kono said, according to Jiji

A little more background on Kono, and how he had previous made comments about phasing out nuclear

Meanwhile, Sanae Takaichi, who is also running to be Japan's next prime minister, says that the government should make building compact fusion reactors a national project

小型核融合炉を国家プロジェクトとして支援

bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
8 Sep
Something interesting is happening in the spot uranium market 👀☢️

Uranium futures have surged to a 6-year high. And its bull run is poised to continue due -- at least in part -- to a single fund aggressively buying physical supplies
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust was launched earlier this year, and recently started to Tweet about how much physical uranium it has been buying

That's aided the commodity’s recent surge to a six-year high
Sprott is buying at a rate that is double the typical total annual uranium volume traded. Not double the float. Double the market.

In just three weeks, Sprott’s buying has pushed the price of uranium up by more than 30%

(Via @DoombergT)

doomberg.substack.com/p/is-uranium-a…
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
8 Sep
Japan to invest in a blue ammonia project amid effort to reduce emissions 🇯🇵

Mitsubishi partners with Shell to produce ammonia from natural gas w/ CCS in Canada, Nikkei says. Ammonia will be shipped to Japan and used to dilute fuel at coal power plants

nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
The $1 billion project will produce roughly 1 million tons/year of blue ammonia by the second half of this decade, the Nikkei says

Japan aims to import 3 million tons/year of ammonia just for use in the power sector by 2030
Please note that there has been a lot of debate about whether blue hydrogen/ammonia is actually worse for the environment than just burning the natural gas

A controversial study was released last month. Here is a recap from Platts:

spglobal.com/platts/en/mark…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
6 Sep
Japan’s renewable energy stocks surged on Monday as @konotarogomame -- a politician who supports phasing out nuclear power -- emerged as a top contender to become the nation's next prime minister 🇯🇵

Kono is also a big fan of stricter green policies

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
"People generally agree we should not add any more nuclear reactors. And any nuclear reactor that has been operated for 40 years should be de-commissioned. Then, by 2050, our nuclear power will be zero," Kono said in Sept. 2011

npr.org/2011/09/06/140…
But according to other specialists, Japan must have at least 27 of its remaining 36 reactors online by 2030 to hit its obligations under the Paris climate

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Read 4 tweets

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