The withdrawal from Afghanistan is a false dawn. The US will remain what Gore Vidal famously called the "United States of Amnesia", a military super-Frankenstein trapped in a hopeless cycle of ignorance, failure, finger-pointing and revenge.
Drones, killer sanctions and cyberwarfare may take priority over invasions. They too will fail, of that I am certain. They will merely re-inforce the resistance of their targets (just look at 60+ years of sustained economic pressure on tiny Cuba).
Just a pause before the pendulum swings back towards "air campaigns" and "boots-on-the-ground". The American economy is too dependent on war to suspend for long its "exceptionalist" global military mission.

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