Alan only mentioned icome-based repayment in passing in his excellent piece on income-sharing agreements, but one way to think about what's been happening is that the entire system is evolving into a kind of ISA.
The problem with an ISA is that students know their earning potential better than schools do, and the highest-earning students will pick a traditional loan instead. In theory one solution is to make an ISA the only option, but no private entity has the power to do that.
But, over time we've seen: (1) tuition rising faster than inflation for decades, (2) federal loans offering an income-based repayment option starting in 1994, (3) the feds increasingly taking over direct administration of federal student loans.
It's easy to imagine a future where tuitions keep rising but income-based repayment and other programs mean fewer and fewer people ever pay back the full amount.
It's still formally a loan but practically speaking it's a tax on the earnings of college educated people. And it's one people won't want to opt out of since then they won't get the chance to partial forgiveness.
Oops, forgot to link to @AlanMCole's piece, which is worth reading in full. fullstackeconomics.com/theres-a-probl…
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