@NCAgriculture 2/7 The 2020 State Fair was cancelled on July 28, 2020, when NC was averaging 21 deaths/day from Covid-19. We're now averaging 64 deaths/day from Covid-19. On 7/28/2020 NC averaged 1933 new Covid-19 cases/day. We're now averaging 6419 new cases/day.
@NCAgriculture 3/7 I understand that we're all very, very tired of this pandemic. Like you, I really, really wish it were over.
But wishful thinking is not a sound basis for policy-making. If the Fair is not cancelled, it will probably kill hundreds of North Carolinians -- maybe thousands.
@NCAgriculture 4/7 If the Fair isn't cancelled there're 2 possible outcomes: 1. FEW people will come & everyone involved will lose their shirts, financially. That's the BEST outcome. 2. Or MANY people will come, causing tens of thousands of additional Covid-19 cases, and hundreds of fatalities.
@NCAgriculture 5/7 To get an idea of the possible carnage, consider an "intermediate" scenario. The State Fair usually gets about a million visitors. If they get half that many, and if 90% of them are exposed to Covid-19, and if 10% of them get ill, and if 0.5% of those die, that's 225 dead.
@NCAgriculture 6/7 Those are all pretty conservative estimates, and I didn't even consider secondary infections.
The true death toll could easily be several times that.
No amount of fried Snickers bars and giant turkey legs is worth such a price.
@NCAgriculture 7/7 Please cancel the 2021 NC State Fair!
1/5. I trust that it is obvious to you that the most important effects of climate change are on agriculture. Right?
So if you really want to read the best relevant scholarly literature, you should start with agronomy papers. Agronomy is a much older, more rigorous, and less politicized field than "climate science," and it's the field which studies the effects of CO2 and climate change on agriculture.
@JDubbs1982 @Bidenisafacist @ChrisMartzWX 2/5. For instance, here's a paper about wheat:
Fitzgerald GJ, et al. (2016) Elevated atmospheric CO2 can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves. Glob Chang Biol. 22(6):2269-84. doi:10.1111/gcb.13263.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
@JDubbs1982 @Bidenisafacist @ChrisMartzWX 3/5. That doesn't even take into account the direct benefits of fossil fuels.
1/15≫ Dr. Belch (why oh why isn't she a gastroenterologist?) seems not to recognize the significance of the story.
Climate activists predicted that if Earth's average temperature got to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial (late Little Ice Age) baseline it would be a disaster. But they did, and nothing bad happened.
The significance of that is that it means the climate activists were completely wrong.
2/15≫ In case you're wondering, the 4 known factors which caused 2023 to be so mild were:
1. A strong El Niño spike. And
2. IMO 2020 shipping regulations drastically reduced sulfate aerosol air pollution (The IMO says they resulted in "an estimated 46% decrease in ship-emitted aerosols," which equates to a sudden 10% decrease in total global SO2 emissions, which is a large improvement in a short time, with a significant warming effect). And
3. The unusual 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption, which humidified the stratosphere. And
4. Also a little bit of warming from the ongoing slow rise in atmospheric CO2 levels (though only about 25 ppmv/decade).
It's all good, though (unfortunately) #1 & #3 are temporary.
3/15≫
Q: And what was the result of all that warmth?
1/7. Contrary to Prof. Christopher Taylor's claim, global greening is not "maxed out." That outlier Baozhang Chen study he cited is even contradicted by the IPCC:
2/7. Here's a compilation of that thread (because Twitter/𝕏 keeps shadowbanning my tweetstorms):
@elonmusk, @lindayaX, @support, @premium PLEASE end 𝕏's SHADOWBANNING of replies — even replies to one's own tweets (tweetstorms). What good is a tweetstorm if you can't find the 2nd tweet while viewing the 1st?threadreaderapp.com/thread/1719382…
3/7. Xin Chen et al (2024) refutes that outlier Baozhang Chen et al (2022) study:
Chen, Xin et al (2024). The global greening continues despite increased drought stress since 2000. Global Ecology and Conservation, Volume 49, 2024, e02791, doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02791.sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
1/10. When climate activists like Prof. Christopher Taylor have the power to block publication and deny tenure to young professors with differing opinions, it corrupts academia and distorts science.
2/10. Scientific consensuses exist about many things, but we don't talk much about them, because we don't disagree about them. If there's a hot debate about the existence of a consensus, it means there's no consensus.
3/10. One of the dishonest tactics used by the parasitic climate industry to promote their products is to pretend there's a scientific consensus that the "climate crisis" is real. That's a plain lie.