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Balaji Profile picture
@balajis
Sep 14, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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People got real mad last week at the suggestion that equipment left in Afghanistan could be an intel windfall for the Chinese.

But here's the Sci-Tech editor of DefenseOne (@DefTechPat) making exactly that case with technical detail and multiple sources. defenseone.com/technology/202…
As I acknowledged at the time, I am by no means an expert on military hardware. But it strained credulity to imagine that billions of dollars of equipment captured without warning wouldn't give intelligence on US capabilities.

A windfall, even.
defenseone.com/technology/202…
One line of argument was that equipment like C-130s date to the 1950s, so *obviously* having them captured was no big deal.

@jalospinoso spent ten years in the Army conducting penetration tests...and thinks differently.
The strawman is that it was just some Humvees.

The steelman — according to @_GeorgiannaShea of FDD — is that "it's not just a Humvee…it’s a Humvee that’s full of radios, technologies, crypto systems, things we don’t want our adversaries getting ahold of”
Just a simple country techbro here making necessarily limited inferences under uncertain conditions, but apparently some experts agree — losing billions of dollars in US-origin materiel is analogous to leaking big chunks of source code onto the internet.
"Nothing was transferred to the Afghans that was of any technological value", I was told!

Except for all the tech built into the equipment that was just captured[1]. Here's another example: the gear used to detect IEDs.

[1] defenseone.com/technology/202…
Again, to be clear, I learned a lot in the discussion!

And heard some fun arguments. Some said that because America didn't trust their Afghan allies, it gave them only junk. Others said everything has been hacked anyway, so China wouldn't learn anything new.

Very reassuring…
The best exchange was with @ralee85, a true domain expert who was fair & honest.

The big difference between his informed opinion & my high-level guess wasn't on technical detail, though. It was our respective trust in whether the military would make this kind of mistake.
Our information environment today is all fog-of-war, especially on a foreign battlefield.

One day Afghanistan won't fall to the Taliban, the next day it does. One day "ISIS-K" is being drone striked, the next day it was some kids. And one day it's all just old gear lost…
General rule: if an institution says X and not-X happens just a little while later, where X is a big deal, the claims on small things are also questionable.

Internal disagreements get more signal then. Weight non-consensus voices more heavily when consensus is repeatedly wrong.
If early COVID discourse had been accurate, I'd trust public health more.

If Bitcoin didn't work, I'd trust macroeconomists more.

And if WMDs were in Iraq, I'd trust the state more.

But if experts are wrong, we can't blindly trust. Need our own diligence. And to rebuild trust.

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More from @balajis

Balaji Profile picture
Oct 14
The AI flippening. Image
Crypto has also decentralized to Asia. Image
About 55% of unicorns are still in the US, but the trendline there is also towards decentralization. Image
Read 4 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Oct 8
There's dark talent around the world, from the Midwest to the Middle East. Backing this talent is the right thing to do morally and the smart thing to do economically.
To be clear: I'm not talking about sending more tech talent to the US. Instead, I'm talking about backing dark talent around the world.

That includes the many white kids from places like the Midwest who've been unfairly quota'd out of Harvard. But it also includes those outside America whose societies were ravaged by war, socialism, or communism...and who are just now starting to become productive again.

The goal is global equality of opportunity. The Internet actually now provides the basis for uniform rule-of-law via rule-of-code, starting with Bitcoin and smart contracts. We just need to execute from here.
Yes. That's what the blockchain is: everyone worldwide gets access to their ideal monetary policy, payments, smart contracts, and entity formation. Enforced by incorruptible & transparent computer-based judges. And opted into on a purely voluntary basis.
Read 4 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Sep 17
Prime Minister Modi comprehensively defeated the far left in India.

It can be done.
Naxalites drew their inspiration from Maoism and terrorized India for decades. Now these communists have formally surrendered.

britannica.com/topic/Naxalite x.com/thelegatein/st…Image
Fifteen years ago the far left still controlled almost one third of India.

The Modi government fixed the issue by using force against actual terrorists while addressing the underlying discontent with economic development. It worked.
indiatoday.in/amp/india-toda… x.com/iyervval/statu…Image
Read 8 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Sep 8
Both America and China were invested in the illusion that China wasn't already the world's strongest economy.

Psychologically, it suited the incumbent to appear strong. So America downplayed China's numbers.

Strategically, it suited the disruptor to appear weak. So China also sandbagged its own numbers.

But the illusion is becoming harder to maintain.Image
In retrospect, all the China cope over the last decade or so was really just the stealth on the Chinese stealth bomber.

Hide your strength and bide your time was Deng's strategy. Amazingly, denying China's strength somehow also became America's strategy.

For example, all the cope on China's demographics somehow being uniquely bad...when they have 1.4B+ people that crush every international science competition with minimal drug addiction, crime, or fatherlessness...and when their demographic problems have obvious robotic solutions.

Or, for another example, how MAGA sought to mimic China's manufacturing buildout and industrial policy without deeply understanding China's strengths in this area, which is like competing with Google by setting up a website. Vague references to 1945 substituted for understanding the year 2025.

One consequence of the cope is that China knows far more about America's strengths than vice versa. Surprisingly few Americans interested in re-industrialization have ever set foot in Shenzhen. Those who have, like @Molson_Hart, understand what modern China actually is.

Anyway, what @DoggyDog1208 calls the "skull chart" is the same phenomenon @yishan and I commented on months ago. Once China truly enters a vertical, like electric cars or solar, their pace of ascent[1] is so rapid that incumbents often don't even have time to react.

Now apply this at country level. China has flipped America so quickly on so many axes[2], particularly military ones like hypersonics or military-adjacent ones like power, that it can no longer be contained.

A major contributing factor was the dollar illusion. All that money printing made America think it was richer than China. And China was happy to let America persist in the illusion. But an illusion it was. Yet another way in which Keynesianism becomes the epitaph of empire.

[1]: asiatimes.com/2025/07/thucyd…
[2]: x.com/balajis/status…Image
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Well, it's not the idea, it's the execution.

China can just sit back and let the world be its Xerox PARC. And then become a speedy second mover on anything that's working.

So you need innovations China genuinely can't copy.
One of them is Bitcoin.
Read 7 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Sep 1
The dollar is losing reserve currency status. It’s down to 42% of global reserves, and gold is rapidly rising. Image
Digital gold is becoming the reserve currency of the individual.

Gold is returning as the reserve currency of the state.

Original post below.
Recall the Fed admitted that a “small number” of countries were switching to gold.

But that small number actually included Russia, India, and China: the RIC of BRICS.
Read 6 tweets
Balaji Profile picture
Aug 18
On many graphs of the physical world, China is in first place by a wide margin.

But if you look more closely, India is a distant but real runner up. Image
Image
The same pattern holds in nuclear.
China is #1 in reactors under construction.
But India is in second place. Image
Electricity generation is similar.

China’s recent increase is unparalleled in history. But India is increasing quickly, and will flip the EU soon. Image
Read 7 tweets

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