THREAD on latest PHE report on vaccine waning (and need for boosters):
Important new report from @PHE_uk on vaccine waning by age and at risk status - basically yes there's waning, but still good protection against severe disease for most people. 1/9
Firstly, protection against symptomatic infection starts waning against Delta (orange) about 10 weeks after 2nd dose (70 days).
Waning with both vax, but AZ starts and ends with lower protection. 2/9
Protection against hospitalisation is much higher and stays stronger - particularly for Pfizer. Some waning in AZ from about 20 weeks (5 months/140 days) after dose 2 but even so efficacy remains at about 80% for AZ after 20 weeks 3/9
Looking again at protection against hospitalisation (severe disease) by age, protection a little lower in over 65s compared to 40-64 yr olds - and mainly for AZ.
Very similar levels of effectiveness in both age groups for Pfizer and minimal waning. 4/9
For people aged 40-64 who received AZ, waning is mainly coming from those in a clinical risk group. Little waning in either category for Pfizer in that age group.
(Note all these charts are effectiveness against hospitalisation, not infection). 5/9
In older adults (65+), there is evident waning for Pfizer after about 20 weeks if they are clinically extremely vulnerable. For AZ, there is waning in both groups - wide confidence intervals since many adults in these categories received Pfizer. 6/9
Finally, for over 80s (who mostly received Pfizer), there is clear waning in efficacy against hospitalisation from about 10 weeks after 2nd dose - although it still remains good at 70% protection. 7/9
So I guess the boosters are addressing mainly the waning against severe disease in over 50s and those in a clinical risk group - particularly those who received AZ vaccine.
Plus it should come with added benefit of increasing protection against infection & transmission. 8/9
Finally - protection in adults 40-65 who are not in a clinical risk group remains *very* high (almost 100%) for both vaccines out to 20 weeks - although most 40-somethings had their second dose only 8-12 weeks ago. 9/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.
1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?
A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.
1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.
Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?
A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"
Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed
Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"
1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"
"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"
"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"
2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"
"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"
TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.
Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.
Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12
However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.
THREAD: Various new or expanded cancer screening programmes have been announced recently and coverage has been overwhelmingly on the pros. But there are cons too.
First a screening recap : a relatively simple test that flags potential cause for concern. If flagged, you are offered more, gold standard, testing, often in a hospital (e.g. MRI scans, blood tests, other diagnostic procs). If those +Ve too, you are offered cancer treatment. 2/24
The benefits are clear: If you have undiagnosed serious cancer, screening can save your life if it leads to earlier treatment.
In this case massively beneficial to you *and* to NHS which can save on longer, more expensive treatment from later diagnosis 3/24