SFGATE Profile picture
14 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
In the final two weeks of the Gavin Newsom recall election, every major poll released pointed to the same result:

Newsom is likely to survive the recall by a double-digit margin, perhaps even by 20 percentage points.
sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-r…
On Monday night, Newsom strategist Sean Clegg went so far as to proclaim,

"There's no scenario where we lose," and, "I don't see a scenario where we're not talking about a victory for the governor."
Newsom is still highly likely to win, as polls for big-ticket statewide races are rarely off by more than 15 percentage points.

However, the recall election is an off-year, abnormally scheduled election, and it is quite possible polls will be less predictive.
Rigorously analyzing returned vote data is seldom a good idea (some tried this in Florida ahead of the 2020 presidential election and got burned), but there are a handful of possible warning signs for Newsom: bit.ly/3tCZPOE

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with SFGATE

SFGATE Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SFGate

13 Sep
If you were once frightened by the Bushman, it’s 50/50 whether it was David Johnson or Gregory Jacobs.

They are intertwined in Bushman history, a drama of Shakespearean proportions played out between two star-crossed San Francisco street performers.
sfgate.com/characters/art…
The Bushman’s prank was a simple one. He sat atop a milk crate on a busy sidewalk in the most touristy stretch of Fisherman’s Wharf, obscured only by the tree branches he held up to his face.

When an innocent mark walked by, he leapt up, branches waving, shouting, “Ugga bugga!”
Russ Giuntini, formerly a chief assistant in the San Francisco district attorney’s office, summed it up thusly: "Oh yeah, the ugga bugga guy.

He would jump out and scare the crap out of the guy from Nebraska with the red socks and white belt."
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep
Polls for Gavin Newsom's recall election in California are closing Tuesday at 8 p.m.

Here are some resources to help you better understand how to vote (if you haven't already), what's at stake and when we'll know the results ⤵️
Here's your last-minute guide on voting:
sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-r…
Here's when we'll know the results:
sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-r…
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
More than 7 million ballots in the Gavin Newsom recall election have already been received by California elections officials.

Every registered voter was mailed a ballot, and the first results will be posted once polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m. 
sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-r…
Just how long it will take before we know whether Newsom survived the recall largely depends on how close the race is, as most of California's biggest counties will not be done counting by the end of the night Tuesday.
If the race is close, it may take several days before we know the final outcome.

Current polls indicate Newsom has a healthy lead, but there are reasons to be at least somewhat skeptical of polling.
sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-r…
Read 4 tweets
27 Aug
From far away, the caution tape and sheet of paper attached to an interpretative placard in Muir Woods National Monument could be mistaken for routine maintenance.

In fact, the park’s latest project is quite the opposite.
sfgate.com/california-par…
“Alert: History Under Construction,” the paper reads. “Everything on this sign is true but incomplete.”

Those words are part of a temporary exhibit created by park staff to bring attention to aspects of the park’s history often left out of official literature.
This innovative project is part of a collaboration between Muir Woods staff members and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area (GGNRA) interpretative team.
Read 5 tweets
26 Aug
California’s wildfires are burning bigger, hotter and more fiercely than they did decades ago because of climate change, and firefighting veteran John Hawkins has been on the front lines of this terrifying shift.
sfgate.com/california-wil…
Hawkins was 17 when he first donned a firefighting uniform in 1964. He went on to become an engineer, captain, battalion chief, division chief and deputy chief.

The 74-year-old now works as a fire consultant for Cal Fire.
Hawkins, who lost his home of 30 years in the Paradise Fire, knows about the heartbreaking devastation of today’s blazes.

“[These fires] are unheard of,” he said by phone recently. “Things have changed.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
After a string of COVID-19 infections were reportedly traced back to travelers returning from Las Vegas, one county in Hawaii is sounding the alarm on travel to the Sin City.
sfgate.com/hawaii/article…
Las Vegas is so popular in Hawaii that it's often colloquially referred to as its ninth island.

But the state's Department of Health branch in Kauai warns that Las Vegas "poses significant risks" due to the lax restrictions in the city, according to multiple media reports.
"Visitors stay indoors for prolonged periods, mingling with others from all over the country," reads the news release. 

"Masks are not required. The result is a set-up for the spread of COVID-19."
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(