Thread by @observingjapan

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I've started reading Takaichi Sanae's newly released campaign book.

Let's just say that it takes only a few pages before she starts essentializing about Japan.

The title itself is explicit homage to Abe: 美しく、強く、成長する国へ. Not just towards a beautiful country, but towards a beautiful, strong, and growing country.

It opens innocently enough, noting his modest middle-class upbringing in Nara in the years following Ikeda's income-doubling plan.

But then she jumps immediately to the challenges of the present day: Covid, climate change and earthquakes, national security challenges, terrorism, economic security, resource constraints, and demographics.

In general, there's a greater sense of risk and danger running through this leadership campaign, even compared to 2012, when Abe's pitch was overcoming the national crisis that was DPJ rule.

But, she says, restoring values that are important to the Japanese people can overcome these challenges.

What values? She says honoring elders, valuing food, respecting decorum and public interest, working hard to learn and study, and helping all those in need.

These, she says, were the reason why "until recently" Japan was respected for its sound public order and international competitiveness.

Lest you think this is just chauvinism, she then has three lengthy passages from foreigners -- Edward Morse, Heinrich Schliemann, and Philipp Franz von Siebold -- writing in the 19th century about the virtues of the Japanese people.

(Because the nineteenth century wasn't known for essentializing pseudoscience about nations or races or anything.)

Oh boy: "Even now, I feel that the splendor of the Japanese people, who have humbly received the world's best imperial family for 126 generations, and inherited the DNA of their outstanding ancestors, remains essentially unchanged."

I'm trying to report these contents as neutrally as possible, but reading that expression gave me the willies.

For all his nationalism, I don't recall Abe straying into such explicit biological/social Darwinist ethnonationalism in 美しい国へ.

The 3/11 disaster -- the lengths that individuals went to help others, the Emperor and Empress's kindness to the victims -- demonstrate this character, she suggests.

Then, she adds, even as other countries imposed mandatory lockdowns and some countries saw large protests etc in response, individuals and businesses voluntarily did what needed to be done to reduce risks and save lives.

(This reads like it was written in a much earlier stage of the pandemic, because it doesn't seem to describe what the summer in Tokyo was like.)

Then, she relates anecdote from Seiko Ishikawa, a Venezuelan Nikkei who has been ambassador in Tokyo since 2005, who related how visiting Venezuelans were so impressed with Japan and wondered how anyone could be dissatisfied. (This is post-Koizumi, when inequality was big issue.)

When Takaichi disparaged some left-wing opposition lawmakers, Ishikawa dismissed her. "I think you're all conservatives. In Japan there appears to be no ideological conflict."

Then, a long quote from Panasonic founder Matsushita Konosuke on the unique goodness of Japan.

I don't know how long I'm going to be able to stick with this.

If the following isn't an example of @nils_gilman's "avocado politics," I don't know what is.

On avocado politics: thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-12-….

"I have often strived for the development of a legal system to prevent harm, assuming the worst that could happen in the future, while often using the term 'minimization of risks.

"In particular, regarding 'policies necessary to protect life,' no matter how many voices are opposed, no matter how much it is attacked by the media, I have continued to insist on it."

It's hard to read the "no matter how many voices are opposed, how much it is attacked by the media" as an entirely wholesome expression.

"I will continue to pursue as my top priority, so 'to protect Japan,' the strengthening of various policies towards the 'minimization of risks' regarding natural disasters, cyber attacks, terrorism and violent crime, and threats to the national defense and economic security."

To "open up the future," she says she will prioritize investments in growth, crisis management, and human capital, as well as in security for all generations and prosperous regions.

Reflecting a theme raised in my earlier thread on her beliefs, she says she wants to end excessive equality of outcomes and safeguard equality of opportunity.

In a line that sounds almost Randian, she says that if taxation, education, and legal system become "too jealousy based," excellent talent and companies cannot be fostered.

The conclusion to the introduction swerves from expressing her pride in her accomplishments as a legislator to restating her conviction of the need to defend the spiritual culture and property inherited from ancestors to be passed to future generations.

Chapter one, on Sanaenomics.

... Which opens with her saying that she thinks the ultimate national missions are protecting the lives and property of the people; protecting territory, teritorial waters and airspace and natural resources; and protecting national sovereignty and honor.

But, she adds, sustainable growth that ensures a secure livelihood, with essential welfare and healthcare services and high-quality education wherever one lives in Japan is important too.

Realizing this requires top leadership to introduce a legal system that creates a sense of security for all generations and minimizes risk.

Stopping for the night. Back into the funhouse tomorrow.

A few more notes here...

She lays out Abe's three arrows, and then explains what's different about hers.

She recognizes that monetary and fiscal stimulus are here to stay but suggests that while Abe's third arrow was focused on "reform," hers will continue with reform but the watchword will be investment.

She wants investment in crisis management and growth to be the focus.

Because these investments are urgently needed, fiscal rules aimed at a primary balance should be suspended.

Whether this is MMT or not, the post-Abe LDP is far less hawkish fiscally than the pre-2012 LDP.

Starting with Takaichi's book again...

The second chapter has more details on the third arrow of Sanaenomics, "investment in crisis management" and "growth investment."

Notes with envy that Japan has nothing like the Defense Production Act in the US to compel companies to produce essential goods, says such legislation is necessary.

Her answers:
-Subsidies for businesses that cooperate with production plans
-Tax incentives to bring R&D and production back to Japan
-Large-scale investment in medical R&D

Also, give the PM to draw upon talented individuals from the private sector during a crisis.

Notes how as minister of internal affairs and communications under Abe, she had to push back against plans to consolidate or reorganize money-losing public hospitals.

Refers vaguely to a plan that provides the most suitable community health organization, drawing from the best qualities of public and private institutions.

Then she turns her attention to medical border controls, noting an administrative review of a number of facilities as minister in 2016.

The review found that these facilities were not conducting mandated checks for foreign arrivals. The following year, the MIC issued formal recommendations for improvement, with mandatory checks after 6 and 12 months.

The second follow-up check was scrapped when the pandemic hit, so, she says, there is a continuing need to strengthen medical border controls.

And she's back to medical production, noting that Japanese pharmaceutical companies, with the possible exception of Takeda, lag behind their global peers.

Notes that Japanese companies are especially behind in the most profitable, specialized drugs.

Says that 1) Japanese companies have not made the choice to become either "mega pharma" or "specialty pharma." 2) Poor ability to identify promising drugs early and devote resources to them. 3) Lack of a biomedical venture capital ecosystem.

4) Large number of general hospitals means number of patients with a given condition in a facility is small, data is too dispersed. 5) Poor translational research.

(This is *really* in the weeds...)

6) Fewer funds available for research. Notes that AMED, Japan's answer to NIH created early in Abe's second tenure, is dwarfed by the US. She says US spends 22x more on medical research grants, 6x more budgeted for medical R&D.

7) Drug price reform has reduced incentives to develop innovative drugs. Says she developed a proposal via LDP policy research council this year to encourage emergency drug development.

Next section is about rising electricity consumption due to IT. Not going to summarize. The takeaway seems to be that she has a lot of niche preoccupations? (Cf. EMP as a threat and an offensive weapon)

Transitions into the future of Japan's electricity generation, notes that when asked whether the energy mix for 2039 envisioned in the new energy plan can actually be achieved, environment ministry officials just said to talk to METI.

An answer that she says was unsettling.

She says that nuclear is necessary as well as renewables, says the cabinet feared political risk and so nuclear power debate hasn't advanced.

That might be as critical of Abe as Takaichi gets?

She wants to change nuclear regulatory system again, both strengthening the NRA and regulatory agency and creating a new body representing utilities, localities, and national government.

She says that the utilities need to work more collaboratively, and state's responsibility for security, decommissioning, final disposal needs to be clarified.

She also is enthusiastic about small module reactors, which, to my knowledge, has been generally absent for political discussions about Japan's energy mix.

She gives a brief intro to the key developments in the US and UK (Bill Gates's Terra Power, Nuscale, etc). Argues that the safety systems are simpler and reduce the risk for human error in crises, lower startup costs for investment, etc.

Also looks beyond SMRs to fusion in the 2030s, arguing that it will be safer, produce shorter-lived and less-hazardous waste.

"It is said that 'the country that succeeds in developing fusion reactors will seize world hegemony from the 21st century onwards."

She's concerned that a new venture, Kyoto Fusioneering, is too small and wants direct and indirect support for its pursuit of practical fusion power. Wants the government to invest ¥500bn over ten years in fusion.

This, she says, would be both crisis management and growth investment.

Picking this back up, Takaichi's next section is on solar power, about which she's very negative due to issues about recycling panels.

She claims to be a supporter of renewable energy as a whole, although oddly she says little about climate change but instead laments money spent overseas on energy that could be spent at home instead.

She suggests that biomass and small-scale hydropower are untapped resources to power Japan.

She proposes the creation of a Ministry of Environment and Energy as part of a broader "Reiwa Administrative Reorganization." (She included this in her campaign manifesto.)

Spoke too soon -- the next section is all in on the climate emergency, but with an emphasis on adaptation rather than mitigation.

She provides a detailed account of the impact of higher rainfall, stronger winds, and other changes, citing JMA and MOE forecasts of the impacts of climate change on the archipelago by 2100.

Naturally, this all comes backs to her focus on "defending the lives of the Japanese people." She says there's a need for R&D focused on new types of civil engineering and construction; new investment in disaster prevention.

She calls for a mid-term disaster prevention plan that would invest JPY 100tn over 10 years, with constant updating as technology improves.

She also points to unavoidable, large-scale change in food production and housing.

She says that green infrastructure technology used to restructure farmland and pastureland but also river basins and cities can be an export opportunity since other countries will face similar challenges.

To facilitate the process of building new apartment buildings and manage the problem of vacant homes, she wants to strengthen the functions of the Urban Renaissance Agency, as well as establish a new financial facility to support local governments.

She calls for more support for local governments undertaking their own disaster prevention efforts, referring to her own legislative efforts to pass legislation regarding emergency dredging of waterways as a flood prevention measure.

Next, she's practically going sector by sector talking about how the government should support key industries. This is Abe's third arrow stripped to its fundamental core

Naturally she supports the nurturing of a strong Japanese player in the semiconductor market that is capable in all stages of the production process. This, she says, is both crisis management and growth investment.

Honestly, it really is just her going through all the major manufacturing/exporting industries and outlining subsidy plans for each.

You get a subsidy, and you get a subsidy... Everyone gets subsidies!!!!

I guess a Takaichi cabinet would really be a return to 経産高財務低 government.

Now she's looking at the quantum computing race with the US, Europe, and China. She wants to accelerate efforts to develop quantum computers at home by increasing support for existing Fujitsu-Hitachi-NEC venture.

Her interest in subsidies extends to soft power industries: she wants tax incentives to encourage game designers and manga + anime producers, support for the creation of overseas distribution networks, etc. cc: @Matt_Alt

She then pivots back to more strategic industries, proposing how Japan can go from laggard to leader in AI race.

She wants the Japanese government to pour money into R&D, saying for this purpose now is the time to leave behind fiscal austerity.

Naturally her interest in AI extends to disaster preparedness and national defense.

A lot of this is just explicitly building on Abe-era initiatives.