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Tobias Harris Profile picture
Tobias Harris
@observingjapan
Deputy Director, @gmfasia | Author of THE ICONOCLAST, biography of @abeshinzo | @cubs fan | https://t.co/RQzbe7n39H | @observingjapan@mstdn.social
2 subscribers
Feb 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I guess we could be getting Kishida's picks for the BOJ leadership on Valentine's Day. 💘 Roses are red
Violets are blue
The BOJ owns all the debt
What should it do?
Feb 8, 2023 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
All right, starting a thread on Abe’s memoir here. 🧵 First, at first glance it looks long — 440 pages. However, the table of contents says that there are nearly 100 pages of reference materials in the back, making it a little more manageable.
Jul 10, 2022 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
Here's Asahi's map as of 10pm JST. The upper end of the 60-69 range NHK is projecting for the LDP would bring it to the absolute majority line.
Jul 10, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Polls are closed and so far as expected. My old boss @asao_keiichiro will be heading back to the Diet as an upper house member from Kanagawa. (おめでとうございます!)
Jul 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I also have an oped for the @wapo on the kind of politician Abe was. It's important not to overlook the fact that Abe wasn't universally beloved -- and that he relished the fight.

"Shinzo Abe was the most polarizing Japanese political figure of his time"

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… In this vein, when I was writing my book, I briefly considered making an extended comparison between Abe and Richard Nixon.
Jul 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Now that we're learning more about the killer and his motives, it is even more stunning that Abe's relations with a marginal religious group -- as @WilliamWGrimes shows here an odd footnote in Japanese politics, not necessarily nefarious -- could have led to his death. We're starting to get a fuller picture here: digital.asahi.com/sp/articles/AS…
Jul 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I wrote a quick political obituary of Abe for @ForeignPolicy.

foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/08/shi… Many thanks to @jenn_ruth for the opportunity and the quick turnaround.
Jul 8, 2022 • 57 tweets • 12 min read
Live view of NHK now: reporting Abe appeared to be bleeding and there was a sound like a gunshot. Here's NHK's brief report: www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022….
Apr 2, 2022 • 68 tweets • 9 min read
There's a new book out from @shincho_shinsho based on a dialogue led by Kanehara Nobukatsu called "Let's Talk Honestly about Nuclear Weapons."

(🧵 Book thread 🧵) Image Kanehara has since left the government but for years was an assistant chief cabinet secretary under Abe, basically serving as his top foreign policy strategist.
Feb 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Kishida indicates that Japan will also join sanctions on the Bank of Russia, which, since the central bank's yen reserves are around 10% of the total, is no small thing. This came following his call with President Zelenskyy, who thanked him for Japan's contributions to Ukraine and participation in international sanctions against Russia.

Feb 27, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Here's Kishida's latest statement, in which he announces that Japan will join the latest G7 sanctions.

More broadly though, I think it's officially the end of Japan's prevailing Russia policy.
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO… Kishida on talks w/Russia on Northern Territories.
北方領土問題に関する日本の立場や、ご高齢になられた元島民の方々の思いに何とか応えたいという私自身の思いはいささかも変わりはないが、今このときのこの状況に鑑みて平和条約交渉などの展望について申し上げられる状況にはないと考えている
Jan 17, 2022 • 53 tweets • 7 min read
On Monday, Kishida delivered his policy speech to kick off the new Diet session. Some thoughts:

🧵 Thread 🧵

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022… Naturally, his highest priority remains Covid-19. He continues to sound vigilant and aggressive, implying as he has since the beginning that complacency is the enemy. He appeals to the public to help the government's efforts.
Dec 11, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on the latest nonsense. I will not comment on Okay, one comment: looking at the many comments on all sides, everyone seems to be equating "China attacking Japan" as the PLA marching in Tokyo when, according to prevailing policy, China taking the Senkaku/Diaoyu would mean the same thing in terms of US treaty obligations.
Oct 14, 2021 • 52 tweets • 7 min read
Let's talk a look at the @CDP2017 manifesto.

🧵thread🧵 First page opens with a big slogan:

支え合う日本へ

Towards a Japan [in which people?] support one another.
Oct 13, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The JCP agrees to withdraw its candidates from three districts in Hokkaido -- Hokkaido-3, Hokkaido-4, and Hokkaido-9 -- all three of which look winnable on paper for the CDP. www3.nhk.or.jp/sapporo-news/2… The JCP has agreed to withdraw 22 candidates in total, and as of now will field only 106 candidates in SMDs, the lowest since electoral reform was introduced. mainichi.jp/articles/20211…
Oct 13, 2021 • 57 tweets • 8 min read
The LDP has released its manifesto for the 31 October general election.

🧵My thoughts here.🧵

…in.jp-east-2.storage.api.nifcloud.com/pdf/pamphlet/2… Initial thought. These blotches of color are a different look than the blocks of red/right angles that characterized LDP manifestos during the Abe years. (Left: 2021; Right: 2017)
Oct 9, 2021 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Here are some of the key takeaways from Kishida's policy speech Friday:

kantei.go.jp/jp/100_kishida… (jp)
(Not sure the provisional English translation is available yet) 1) His New Japanese capitalism is a still a work in progress and I still don't see much difference from Abenomics. He offers 8 (!) pillars divided between a "growth strategy" and "redistribution strategy."
Oct 8, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In the acknowledgements of THE ICONOCLAST, I made a point of thanking several high school teachers who made a deep impression upon me.

Today I learned that Chris Schwarz, the first name listed, passed away after a battle with cancer. He was my AP European History teacher, but I first got to know him when he was my freshman baseball coach. I was the nerd who read on the bus to and from games; I think he felt protective of me. Over the next several years, we struck up a rapport.
Oct 8, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
This Diamond article (jp) on Abe as a new "shadow shogun" merits close reading. diamond.jp/articles/-/283… The first two pages (of five) mostly summarize how Abe made Kishida's victory possible, but on page three, @KamikuboMasato, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan, delves into the sources of Abe's power and what's different from, say, Tanaka Kakuei as shadow shogun.
Oct 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
My profile of Prime Minister Kishida has now been published at @ForeignPolicy.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/04/fum… I really wanted to answer the question of what it even means to be a liberal in the LDP of 2021 and how Kishida has tried to answer that question over the course of his career.
Oct 4, 2021 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
In case you're wondering how the right wing is welcoming Kishida to office, Sankei has quite the rant from leading right-wing opinion maker Sakurai Yoshiko.

sankei.com/article/202110… (paywalled) First, she calls Kishida's remarks on overseas strike capabilities during the leadership campaign extremely significant, given the "antimilitarist" history of his Kochi-kai.