Thread by @DavidNdii

An economic policy analysis of Northern Kenya rangelands with reference to pastoralism and conservation tourism. A long thread.

In economics, we value resources using the opportunity cost principal. 1/18

Simply put, opportunity cost is what is forgone in a trade-off e.g when resources are appropriated for one use over another. When farm land is acquired for for a school, we do not compensate the farmer based on the education services but rather for the forgone agricultural income

Similarly, if a certain rangeland is to be set aside for conservation, we do not need to know the value of the wilderness—we’ve already agreed that nature is priceless. What we need to value and compensate is what the land owners, in this case pastoralists, stand to lose.

Let us now look at some rangeland economic math.The sustainable stocking density for East Africa rangelands is estimated at 11 acres per “tropical livestock unit” (TLU), also known as a cow. At the sustainable off take rate of 20% you need 55 acres to sell one cow a year.

Average value of off take as per KNBS data is Sh30,000/cow. Pastoralists also get their animal protein, milk (and blood!) of about the same value ~3kg of milk/day from a herd of 5 cows. This gives us a production value of Sh60,000/55 acres or Sh1090/acre per year ($100).

NRT website states it is managing 38 community conservancies totalling 42k sq. km or 10.5m acres. According to this math, the opportunity cost is Sh5.7b ($105m) a year. This is how much conservation should pay the land owners to establish a pristine wildnerness.

We can now address the big question. Can tourism pay for conservation which is to say, pay pastoralists $10 per acre per year? Let us assume the lease comes from a 50/50 profit share between the tourism operators and the owners.

The operators would need to make $208m profit. I’ll be generous and assume 20% after tax profit—thats a $1040m turnover. Generously assume $250/bed night. You need 10m bed nights. Generously assume 40% occupancy (actual is 30%), you need 28,000 rooms in those 38 conservancies.

Doable? Yes, but ambitious, and crowded—rather like the Mara during migration, all year round. Standard hotel investment cost ~$50,000 per room. Even assuming half that for a game lodge room, 20k rooms we are talking investment of $700m. Show me the money.

But all this math is theoretical, to belabour the point, because cattle and conservation is not either or. In fact, even cattle, conservation, tourism, and farming are not either or. Ol Pejeta prides itself as a model for conservation by doing all four successfully,

raising 7,500 boran cattle (largest boran herd in the world apparently) alongside the “highest carnivore density in Laikipia” 100+ rhinos etc. 7500 head on 90k acres is 12 acres/cow, so Ol Pejeta has not sacrificed stocking density - its having its cake and eating it.

How does Ol Pejeta manage that?. Well, it also grows pasture and crops, 2500 acres of pasture and 4000 acres of wheat as per its annual report. In 2019, it reported a combined trading revenue of Sh710m, which works out to Sh7900 per acre.

Livestock sales contributed Sh180m or Sh2000/acre about twice the value we have given pastoralist production. In addition to its own cattle, it reports fattening 2000 community for sale but the income is not reported.

The enclosure of range lands under the pretext of conservation is highly suspect. The challenge of the pastoralist economy is underinvestment in productivity. There is no magic or miracles in Ol Pejeta.

Every rangeland community should be able to grow enough food for itself, fodder for its livestock and even generate a surplus for sale on less than 10% of the land. It stands to reason that if pastoralists can grow pasture, the pressure to overstock would be attenuated.

I cannot think of more unimaginative trickle down paternalism than trumpeting game scouts and beadwork as flagship economic empowerment outcomes while there also many other high value economic activities that women and youth can do.

What Northern Kenya rangelands need is the investment in development that it has been denied for a century. That NRT has been let to run a mini-state speaks to deliberate perpetuation of marginalisation and refusal to implement CoK 2010, the Equalization Fund specifically

If Ol Pejeta can generate Sh7,900 per acre, every pastoralist community should be able to raise its productivity to at least Sh3,000/acre in five years. We have the means. Equalization Fund alone is Sh70b ($640m) a year. This is what we mean by #BottomUpEconomicsKE 18/18