Thread by @PeterDaszak

.@EcoHealthNYC paper under peer review, now out on @medrxivpreprint. Analyzes hotspots of future bat SARSr-CoV spillover based on bat distribution/human pop. density. Also estimates # people likely infected each yr. @NYCbat @cmzambranat @hongying_li @dukenus @CREID_Network 1/

Here’s the preprint published yesterday medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 2/

We analyzed the distribution of all known bat SARSr-hosts, mapping out where virus-positive animals could occur. Hotspots extend from S. China across S/SE Asia, a densely populated region (~478 million people) w/ active wildlife trade & high levels of human-wildlife contact. 3/

We used serology data to estimate ~400,000 people in S. China/SE Asia infected each yr by SARSr bat-CoVs. Wide range around average due to limited serol. & behavior risk data. But we don’t expect this number is an overestimate due to dense popn. & high wildlife-human contact 4/

Our pilot studies in China before COVID found people w/ bat SARSr-CoV antibodies (~2.7% at 1 site) i.e. previously infected & never diagnosed. Used this & data on how long antibodies persist to calculate # of people likely infected annually. ecohealthalliance.org/wp-content/upl… 5/

Estimate of 400K annual infections likely conservative: 14 million people worked in wildlife farms/markets in China in 2016 & up to COVID outbreak. Farms bred animals that can carry CoVs but insufficient data on farm/intermediate host distribution to include in our analysis. 6/

Analysis has value for 1) targeting surveillance in people to halt outbreaks before they spread 2) working w/ communities to reduce risk behavior like hunting, butchering, eating wildlife 3) targeting COVID origins tracing studies. 7/ sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

.@EcoHealthNYC is already using maps to identify communities & clinics in SE Asia for surveillance, to build capacity in the region, & to design programs that reduce spillover risk to protect communities there, & all of us from emerging viral threats like SARS & COVID-19. 8/

Relevance to COVID origins: Adds to other scientific work suggesting SARSr-CoV spillover is common & widespread. Supports conclusion that bat-to-human spillover, poss via intermediate host in wildlife farm/market is most likely pathway for COVID origin. 9/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…

How are people exposed? Bats are abundant & diverse, nocturnal & often overlooked. Exposure via: contamination of food/surfaces w excrement or urine; hunting, butchering wildlife incl. bats; living near or sheltering in caves; digging bat guano as fertilizer w/out PPE etc. 10/

Key to reducing risk is to modify our own behavior in high-risk hotspots. We shouldn't blame bats - they're a beautiful & important part of ecosystem. They pollinate forest trees, remove pest insects, & even help produce Tequila by pollinating Agave! 11/ wired.com/2014/06/tequil…

This work was funded by @NIAIDNews @CREID_Network contract 1U01AI151797 “EID-SEARCH” to @EcoHealthNYC, Samuel Freeman Charitable Trust, Pamela Thye, The Wallace Fund, & an Anonymous Donor c/o Schwab Charitable. We are grateful for your support! 12/ creid-network.org

Some news on this: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

and here: khn.org/morning-breako…

Thanks to collaborators on our @NIAIDNews @CREID_Network "EID-SEARCH": conservationmedicine.org @Baric_Lab @USUhealthsci @neidl @ChulalongkornU @dukenus @wrusabah @rhinosbh @Danau_Girang @PERHILITAN @UMS_EcoCampus @UNIMASofficial @ThaiRedCross & many others

Bat data collated, cleaned/corrected & distributions modeled w/ expert oversight from co-authors @klphelps & @cmzambranat, based on @IUCNRedList modified for habitat suitability.