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Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
@deepakshenoy
Sep 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Finally, a better map of the world in the RBI Bulletin - moving away from that degrading Mercator projection.
Toll collections are back, but EWay bills are still not close to the peak in March, yet.
Vehicles and transport don't look greawt. Petrol consumption (by volume) is up above Feb 2020, but Diesel and others are still low. Vehicle registrations still struggling.
Surprisingly, Steel consumption is down big time. Cement is okay (just 5% more than 2019).
Air passenger traffic sucks (40% of Feb 2020 domestic, 15% of international)
But cargo is back to Feb 2020 levels. Has not risen though.
The labour market (read: not you people on twitter) is struggling to reach back to the 2020 pre covid levels:
And the organized labour market (yes, you on twitter) have done very well
Things look good for GST, and railway freight, but not much better for others:

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More from @deepakshenoy

Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Dec 3
Just as the rupee crosses 90, let’s look at the Current Account Deficit for the Sep 2025 qtr.

CAD came in at $12 billion. This isn’t much, really, given :

- The US hit us with 50% tariffs in the quarter
- Huge FPI and FDI outflows from equity markets continued. Image
The big culprit, really, was Gold.

India saw $19bn of gold purchased in the Sep quarter. This is normal as it was about $20bn last year (Sep qtr) as well - usually a Diwali thingy.

In fact because of gold, the Sep 2024 (last year) quarter was a $16 bn deficit. Image
Gold isn’t, in my head, a current account item. Gold is something that is largely used for investing. Like when you buy a US company’s stock for investment.

Such investments belong in the "financial account" not a current account, like FDI/FPI.
Read 15 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Aug 28
We are relatively irrelevant in the trade world for large countries. And what we produce for export, mostly, seems to be easily replaceable as they are commodities, like steel or iron ore or tshirts or what not.

This is the reality. We were never china+1. Maybe china+0.05.
We are big because we are a consumer, not because we produce. We depend on other countries for our consumption and the little that we produce.

We can either dial up our exports or push for more domestic production. The first is useless, other countries can always arm twist.
To domestically produce, we need to remove the extreme rent seeking requirements of environmental overreach, unnecessary labour laws, high cost of capital, a freer rupee etc. this will still take a decade, but what better time than now to start?
Read 4 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Jul 14
For June 2025, Inflation falls to 2.1% , the lowest since 2019. This is a remarkably low number, but there is something that makes me uncomfortable. Image
Compared to last year, we may be low enough, but there's a base effect because inflation went up big last year. The current year seems very nice.

But there's still something more. Image
Food as it turns out is in a disinflationary move - and food is 50% of the index. Fuel too, not too much of a change. The big deal is "Personal Care" - which is up nearly 15%! Image
Read 6 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Jun 19
India's net FDI is down substantially but it's not sinister. This is a great thread on the topic but let me add two important points.

One, that FDI is still strong incoming but outflows have increased. What does that mean? Aren't you mincing words, Deepak? Let me explain.
What is FDI? It's a foreign entity buying equity into an Indian company. Now you have FPI, which is portfolio investments by people like hedge funds and index funds and all that, into Indian listed companies. That is not fdi.

When suzuki bought shares in Maruti, it was FDI.
When a VC invests from a foreign entity into an Indian co, it's FDI. When Amazon US funds losses of its Indian entity, it probably brings in equity (since taking debt from abroad is a larger painnnnnn) as FDI.

Most gccs though will just do transfer pricing for their india ops i.e JP Morgan usa will pay jp morgan India a few for the back end ops, so that is revenue for the Indian firm, not equity, and that is not fdi.
Read 10 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Apr 29
Personal loans by banks (marketshare):
- Housing loans still dominate (52%)
- Education has halved marketshare (now 2.4%)
- Vehicle loans at 10%
- Unsecured personal loans rises to 29% marketshare
- Credit card usage is rising Image
We now have the split by gender (male/female) and that's throwing some interesting changes in the last decade.

Women are now 40% of all education loans from banks. This is excellent news. Image
But sadly, most of even this growth is not due to a larger number of women taking education loans. It's that the loans are much more. From 2.2 lakh per account to 6.3 lakh, though the number of accounts is the same (8 lakh) after a big dip during covid. Image
Read 9 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Mar 31
India's current account deficit is only $11 bn in the Oct-Dec quarter. For FY2024-25 it's only $37 billion. This is good; the rupee fell, but the problem was FPI flows and speculatory rupee trade, not fundamental trade flows.

Thread: 🧵 Image
Note that in the previous quarter, the deficit was $16 bn. It was announced as $11bn and has now been revised UPWARDS by $5bn. So these figures can be revised.

rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Pre…
We import a lot of gold. Last quarter too, we imported $19bn worth, but that is hardly a "current account item" in my book. It's a financial import. So if we look at the deficit net of gold, we have a $8bn surplus! Image
Read 9 tweets

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