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Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
@deepakshenoy
Sep 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Finally, a better map of the world in the RBI Bulletin - moving away from that degrading Mercator projection.
Toll collections are back, but EWay bills are still not close to the peak in March, yet.
Vehicles and transport don't look greawt. Petrol consumption (by volume) is up above Feb 2020, but Diesel and others are still low. Vehicle registrations still struggling.
Surprisingly, Steel consumption is down big time. Cement is okay (just 5% more than 2019).
Air passenger traffic sucks (40% of Feb 2020 domestic, 15% of international)
But cargo is back to Feb 2020 levels. Has not risen though.
The labour market (read: not you people on twitter) is struggling to reach back to the 2020 pre covid levels:
And the organized labour market (yes, you on twitter) have done very well
Things look good for GST, and railway freight, but not much better for others:

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More from @deepakshenoy

Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Nov 29
Indian GDP for Sep 2024 comes in at a low 5.4% and even nominal growth is now 8%. Image
Terrible for manufacturing at just 2% real growth. Agri did decently, but everything else also saw declining growth: Image
Exports were down marginally, but imports even more. And private consumption - the driver of the economy - was at a subdued 6%

Govt expenditure kinda helped keep things up. Image
Read 10 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Nov 12
Bad news on the inflation front. 6.21%! Food inflation and personal services has gone bonkers. This is quite deep and we should probably not expect a rate cut unless this moderates quickly. Image
The difference between last year's numbers and this years is growing - that's what has caused the rise. Very steep. Image
Even Core CPI (without fuel and food) seems to be rising, through it's still less than 4%. Trend matters more than the numbers. Image
Read 6 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Oct 24
Sectoral indices are a crazy mess in India. The Bank Nifty has two stocks that add up to 50%. Five stocks are 75%. Image
Pharma: 4 stocks are 50% but there is at least some other players here: Image
IT: Two stocks 50%, top 5 are 75% Image
Read 4 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Oct 15
RBI has increased its balance sheet size enormously, to 72 lakh crores. Let's look at it in a 🧵, because this has an impact on inflation going forward. Image
Balance sheet growth is now at an extreme! 13% and increasing, and we haven't seen this level since covid! Image
Remember RBI kept saying they were in a state of "withdrawal of accomodation". This is not a withdrawal. This is accomodation up the wazoo.

The problem is this: When there is growth, if the RBI increases its balance sheet, we see inflation with a lag. Image
Read 7 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Oct 1
SEBI changes the F&O Game

The boring stuff: Options to be paid upfront
Option premiums have to be paid by options buyers. Sounds obvious, but currently, intraday, the exchanges just block the broker's collateral for options bought, which therefore allows one person to effectively buy and sell intraday using another person's collateral. This must be a few brokers that provided this facility to allow mad intraday options buy positions. From Feb 2025, this won't happen - clients will have to pay up from their money for such purchases.

No Calendar spread on expiry day: You can sell an option on expiry day and buy a futures or options for a later expiry (like sell weeklies, keep a monthly buy on a different strike or so)

This provides a "calendar spread" benefit that reduces margins by as much as 50%. This lower margin allows a person with X lakh rupees in margin to take 2 times the position as he would without the calendar spread benefit. And SEBI doesn't like it. So they've removed the spread benefit only for expiry day (if one leg of any spread is expiring that very day only)

This is not a bad idea, as there was a large amount of retail scalping happening on daily options expiries, especially selling straddles. There is systemic risk in case the offsetting calendar option doesn't move anywhere close to the expiring one (can happen in case of sudden spikes) - which makes sense on expiry day because max trading happens there.Image
I had demonstrated the calendar spread impact here:
Intraday monitoring of position limits: At a broker level you have be less than some percentage of all OI etc. This was monitored end of day.

But obviously mad trading happens on expiry day for options and the OI will expand considerably due to massive participation, but all of it intraday.

To therefore ensure that one broker doesn't breach the limits, SEBI says exchanges have to monitor the limits intraday (4 times a day)

This means that if a broker hits limits, you can't do fresh trades and can only close existing ones until the broker level OI is less than the limits allowed.

Good, for systemic risk. Impact wise I don't know how bad this is, but if SEBI had a full note on it, it must be serious.
Read 8 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Sep 3
SEBI has a new research paper on IPOs - very interesting set of data that I'll highlight in this thread.

38.3% of all allotted investors are in Gujarat! Then MH, then RJ. Rajasthan? And it's even greater for non-institutional investors (HNIs)!
Image
Image
Most IPO accounts were opened recently, which makes sense because of the increase in the number of brokers and the ability to apply easier online through some of them. Image
So when do people sell? HNIs sell 63% of their allotments within a week (makes sense, most of this was leveraged applications)

Institutions (QIB) sells about 25% in a month, and retail sells about half in a month. Image
Read 15 tweets

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