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Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
@deepakshenoy
Sep 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Finally, a better map of the world in the RBI Bulletin - moving away from that degrading Mercator projection.
Toll collections are back, but EWay bills are still not close to the peak in March, yet.
Vehicles and transport don't look greawt. Petrol consumption (by volume) is up above Feb 2020, but Diesel and others are still low. Vehicle registrations still struggling.
Surprisingly, Steel consumption is down big time. Cement is okay (just 5% more than 2019).
Air passenger traffic sucks (40% of Feb 2020 domestic, 15% of international)
But cargo is back to Feb 2020 levels. Has not risen though.
The labour market (read: not you people on twitter) is struggling to reach back to the 2020 pre covid levels:
And the organized labour market (yes, you on twitter) have done very well
Things look good for GST, and railway freight, but not much better for others:

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More from @deepakshenoy

Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Feb 26
Gold bonds wise - the worry isn't that the government didnt hedge the gold, the worry really is that they didn't do enough of it to change any imports at all. In fact they raised the duty on gold, making gold even more expensive!
The idea of the SGB was that if you only cared about it as a financial asset, then you could just buy an SGB. The lower interest of 2.5% (versus typical bond issues of 8%+) would help the government raise funds at lower interest and hopefully, reduce imports.
Gold imports in USD terms is about $50bn a year. It was $34bn in FY 2015. So about 50% up in 10 years, which isn't big at all in terms of value, less than 5% a year in dollar terms but meaningful in rupee terms with both duty and USDINR going up.
Read 7 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Feb 1
Budget2025: Thread starts here.

Expect bad attempts at jokes. Do not expect tax cuts. I hope there isn't too much poetry, though I'll quote cartoon movies liberally.
India's highest tax rates of the past, and it's come down to 39% (!) a couple years back. Image
Please, this is what I think is good commentary. Just saying, in case you're here because you think it's informative

Read 73 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Nov 29, 2024
Indian GDP for Sep 2024 comes in at a low 5.4% and even nominal growth is now 8%. Image
Terrible for manufacturing at just 2% real growth. Agri did decently, but everything else also saw declining growth: Image
Exports were down marginally, but imports even more. And private consumption - the driver of the economy - was at a subdued 6%

Govt expenditure kinda helped keep things up. Image
Read 10 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Nov 12, 2024
Bad news on the inflation front. 6.21%! Food inflation and personal services has gone bonkers. This is quite deep and we should probably not expect a rate cut unless this moderates quickly. Image
The difference between last year's numbers and this years is growing - that's what has caused the rise. Very steep. Image
Even Core CPI (without fuel and food) seems to be rising, through it's still less than 4%. Trend matters more than the numbers. Image
Read 6 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Oct 24, 2024
Sectoral indices are a crazy mess in India. The Bank Nifty has two stocks that add up to 50%. Five stocks are 75%. Image
Pharma: 4 stocks are 50% but there is at least some other players here: Image
IT: Two stocks 50%, top 5 are 75% Image
Read 4 tweets
Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Oct 15, 2024
RBI has increased its balance sheet size enormously, to 72 lakh crores. Let's look at it in a 🧵, because this has an impact on inflation going forward. Image
Balance sheet growth is now at an extreme! 13% and increasing, and we haven't seen this level since covid! Image
Remember RBI kept saying they were in a state of "withdrawal of accomodation". This is not a withdrawal. This is accomodation up the wazoo.

The problem is this: When there is growth, if the RBI increases its balance sheet, we see inflation with a lag. Image
Read 7 tweets

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