Baseline models (GPT-3, GPT-J, UnifiedQA/T5) give true answers only 20-58% of the time (vs 94% for human) in zero-shot setting.
Large models do worse — partly from being better at learning human falsehoods from training. GPT-J with 6B params is 17% worse than with 125M param.
Why do large models do worse? In the image, small sizes of GPT3 give true but less informative answers. Larger sizes know enough to mimic human superstitions and conspiracy theories.
Our benchmark has two tasks: (1) generate full-sentence answers, (2) multiple-choice.
As an automatic metric for (1), we finetune GPT3 and get 90% validation accuracy in predicting human evaluation of truth (outperforming ROUGE & BLEURT).
Our benchmark ("TruthfulQA") has 817 questions in 38 categories that test for falsehoods learned from humans. All questions come with reference answers and citations.
Questions + code: github.com/sylinrl/Truthf…
More results:
Even the most truthful models have high rates of false but informative answers -- the kind most likely to deceive humans.
Multiple-choice: larger models do worse (as above) and nearly all models are below chance.
More results: What happens if we vary the prompt? Instructing GPT3 to be truthful is beneficial. Prompting GPT3 to answer like a conspiracy theorist is harmful!
2/ Gerry Sussman. Hofstadter said Gödel invented LISP in proving the incompleteness theorem. Sussman shows the amazing breadth and elegance of LISP ideas. SICP, SICM, How to build robust systems. google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j…
3/ Eric Drexler. Engineering is neglected by philosophy departments (see Sussman also). Engines, Nanosystems, how engineering differs from science, CAIS. Disclosure: he's currently at the FHI (which is part of a phil dept). overcomingbias.com/2013/06/drexle… lesswrong.com/posts/x3fNwSe5…
1/ Why did Wikipedia succeed when 7 similar online encyclopedia projects (mostly started around the same time) all failed? This cool paper investigates and gives surprising answers...
2/ Did Wiki have the most technical talent? No, they had the *least* technical founders by far. One failed project was led by Aaron Swartz (RSS + Reddit creator) and one by the founder of Slashdot. Wiki's initial software was off-the-shelf.
3/ Wiki's 1st source of success: a familiar end-product. Use a novel mechanism (online collaboration) to produce a trad encyclopedia. Some failed projects aimed for new kind of encyclopedia for internet age and this confused contributors.
1/ Thread for exciting philosophy being done outside university philosophy departments. Descartes, Hobbes, Hume, Mill, Frege, Ramsey, and Turing all worked outside phil academia. Here are some contemporary examples...
2/ David Deutsch: foundations of Quantum computation, Many Worlds, Fabric of Reality, Beginning of Infinity, Constructor Theory
1. What % of people have natural immunity to Covid? We get some information from closed environments where a large % of people were exposed. Here are some numbers from prisons, a meat plant, and call center. From this, seems that >80% are susceptible under the right conditions.
2. Note that only the Korean call-center number is based on a scientific study. However, the call center was shut down early and so it's likely that >55% would have been infected if it had stayed open. I think >65% is plausible for prisons, but not sure about Marion result.
3. Some hospital wards and care homes also had large %es infected. But older people are more susceptible. Prisons, meat plants and call centers cover a wide range of ages (18-70). In the table I adjust for the false-negative rate of PCR testing, which is ~20-30% for mass testing.