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16 Sep, 5 tweets, 3 min read
MORE CHIPS CONTENT

On the new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I brought back on @Srasgon to explain why, after all this time, the semiconductor supply chain actually seems to be getting WORSE.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @Srasgon One of the things that I'm learning, from our various episodes on things like chips and also shipping, is just how incredibly messy and inefficient B2B purchasing is.

@tracyalloway wrote about it here, the disconnect between headline orders and sales bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
With shipping, so much of whether you can get space on a vessel (as @typesfast explained) so much depends on whether you know a guy in Copehnhagen who can get your stuff on a boat.

With trucking, a lot of it jobs are just done over random message boards or Telegram groups.
With chips, the manufacturer (as @Srasgon explained) has almost zero visibility into actual user demand. And because order cancelations are so common, sometimes the vendor might not even bother manufacturing the full order, on the assumption that some/all will be canceled.
The modern world is a mess.

Anyway episode is available in all the usual places

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sta…

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More from @TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
17 Sep
The dots probably served a purpose post-GFC, in hammering home the seriousness with which the Fed meant what it said about staying at ZIRP for a long time.

But in framework where destination is supposed to trump path, they inevitably draw FOMC members back into a path discussion
If I say "I'm not going to raise rates until unemployment is at 3% then that's a destination comment.

But the moment you ask me to make a forecast about *when* unemployment gets to 3%, you're implicitly asking me my growth forecast (path).
We've had years and years of ZIRP, and there's this perception that the Fed likes it this way and hates hiking and all that.

But it's been memoryholed the degree to which post-GFC, the public perception was the exact opposite, that the Fed hated ZIRP and wanted to hike ASAP.
Read 5 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
16 Sep
Serious question about blockchain fees. Is there any evidence that any chain has found (or will find) a stable equilibrium such that miners (or validators) are adequately compensated, but the chain doesn't get too expensive, driving users to other chains or other layers?
People like to joke that the goalposts are always moving. That at the end of 2017, the knock on Bitcoin was that the fees were too expensive for anyone to use. And today that's the knock on Ethereum.

But now people point out that Bitcoin's fees are dangerously low?
In theory, Ethereum's fee problem (too expensive) could be solved if everyone uses Layer 2, but then does this pose the risk of fees evaporating on the main chain, creating the same security problem that bitcoin faces today?
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
23 Aug
An extraordinary new Odd Lots

@tracyalloway and I spoke with @aahmady, the former head of Afghanistan’s central bank. We discussed the the events of the last two weeks, bank management in more normal times, and the economic situation the country now faces bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @aahmady And of course the episode is available on anywhere like

Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-c…

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4VwAG5…

Etc.
@tracyalloway @aahmady FULL TRANSCRIPT:

Our conversation with @aahmady bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
16 Aug
NEW ODD LOTS:

Nearly a year after the framework review at the 2020 Jackson Hole, @tracyalloway and I talked to @neelkashkari about the quest to get to full employment and what it looks like when we're there. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @neelkashkari We also talked about the macro situation right now, including inflation, whether it's transitory, what it would look like if it were becoming a bigger problem, and much more.
This wasn't intentional, but last week we had on Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, and I realized that Kaplan and Kashkari were the two dissenters at the September 2020 Fed decision. So it's a real treat to have gotten to speak with both of them. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
11 Aug
THE INCREDIBLE POWER OF THE STABLECOIN ISSUERS

It took me awhile to appreciate the significance of stablecoins.

I wrote a post for the Odd Lots blog about why and how they're emerging as the true power players within crypto. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Back in 2016, when the DAO got hacked, Vitalik had some influence in addressing it.

These days when there's a big hack, the only entities that can possibly do anything about it is the stablecoin companies.
Their power and size is why, as my colleague @joelight has been reporting on, there's more and more scrutiny of them in DC bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
11 Aug
On a sequential basis, core CPI came in lighter than expected.

Economists were looking for a 0.4% increases. Instead it was a 0.3% increase.

On a YOY basis, it was in line at 4.3%.
Stocks like it bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
*S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES RISE TO SESSION HIGH AFTER CPI DATA
Read 5 tweets

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