Edwin Hayward Profile picture
Sep 16, 2021 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Did you know that the new Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan is a keen climate change denier? Dangerous, given the key importance of environmental issues in trade deals.

She's posted quite an eye-opening series of tweets over the years. Let's step through them all in order...
Ok, we're up to 2012. Let's keep going...
Now we've reached 2013. She's not run out of steam yet...
In October 2016 (despite everything we saw so far) something astonishing happened: she decided to go for the Guiness World record for biggest hypocrite.

She claimed to be looking forward to receiving climate change concerns (on "green leaves") from her constituents in Rothbury.
By December 2016, she was back to her old ways, promoting a report that attacked the Climate Change Act.
She seems to have consciously remade her social media persona in late 2017, because the tide of global warming scepticism stopped.

Instead, she switched to posting (occasionally) about climate change issues as if she believed the problem existed.
Her conversion to the cause seemed to persevere in 2018...

... and she was in full perky General Election mode in late 2019.
By December 2019, she was praising the Green Party for bringing climate change into the mainstream of conversation.

(Note that she has never, at any point, expressed regret for - or even acknowledged - her own breakneck U-turn on the subject.)
Just a couple of mentions of climate in the early part of 2020, but to be fair she was dealing with the crisis the whole world was grappling with: the coronavirus pandemic.

She did manage to get onto the Cabinet Committee on Climate Change, though... 😲
On 7 November 2020, Anne-Marie Trevelyan was appointed the UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience for the COP26 Presidency.

Which, based on her early record, feels a bit like appointing Hannibal Lecter to a key post in the Vegan Society.
That was it! From dripping bath tap to Niagara Falls, as her climate-related tweets suddenly came thick and fast.

Not going to document them all here, but she posted 14 tweets on the subject between 7 November 2020 and 31 December 2020, after just two for the rest of 2020.

/END
Added: just to be crystal clear, there's no evidence of *recent* denialism.

But there's also been no apology at any point, nor any acknowledgement of her change of heart, or attempt to draw an explicit line under her previous mockery and belittlement on the subject.

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More from @edwinhayward

Jun 23
(1/7)

Brexit's impacts haven't vanished.

Prices are higher. NHS waiting lists are longer. Some businesses struggle to hire staff.

These aren't just "post-Covid" or "global issues".

Brexit changed how Britain trades & works. That still shapes daily life.
(2/7)

But people aren’t talking much about Brexit anymore.

Why? Not because it’s fixed. It’s because the connection got blurry.

When problems stack up (energy bills, war, inflation), it’s hard to spot which bit comes from Brexit.
(3/7)

Think of it like this: Brexit built a speed bump on Britain’s road.

Now we drive over it every day. We feel the jolt, but we call it "bad suspension" or "potholes" (cost of living, NHS delays).

We don’t always blame the bump.
Read 7 tweets
May 9
There is no US trade deal.

Despite the performative circus yesterday, Starmer on Zoom in Trump's Oval Office press conference, there is no deal.

All that exists is a document setting out in general terms the parameters of a possible deal.

Everything remains to be negotiated. Image
That explains why two senior Trump staffers talked about chlorinated chicken within minutes of Trump's press conference yesterday: despite what the document says, they know the deal's FAR from finalised.

They see it as a sticking point to be swept away before the Real Thing.
Read 6 tweets
May 8
THREAD: My initial take on the new US trade deal

1. It's not finalised. According to the NYT, months of negotiations lie ahead.

2. Issue of food standards isn't dead yet, according to comments made in Trump's press conference (even though the UK side believe it is!)

1/6
3. Not clear what concessions have been made to the USA on agricultural products but their deal readout suggests a "US$250 million opportunity" for US exporters that wasn't there before.

4. British car manufacturers are better off than this morning, but not than months ago.

2/6
5. UK film industry was not part of the discussion. Starmer said this afternoon at his press conference that if tariffs are imposed in the future that would have to be discussed in the same spirit as other sectors.

6. Britain has agreed to Trump's 10% baseline tariffs.

3/6
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21, 2024
Some more experiments with AI music generation. See what you think...

(One video per tweet. Each includes a static image with the song as soundtrack. Links to Youtube versions at end of thread, together with a rundown of the tools I used to produce them.)

1. Humanity Ascendant
Tomorrow's Tomorrow
Technological Progress
Read 5 tweets
Oct 20, 2024
Perhaps it's unworkable, but this feels like it would be a fair tax system...

1) Set the tax free allowance so that it is the same as annualised minimum wage, and raise it every year in line with inflation. Do the same for NI thresholds. So someone on exactly the minimum wage will never pay tax/NI. If it's really meant to be the "minimum" people need to live on, then let them keep all of it.

2) No clawbacks of the tax free allowance no matter your income level. Everyone gets the same untaxed band.

3) Eliminate all 100%+ tax situations. Work should always pay, regardless of the combination of salary and benefits you're receiving. Set a maximum (say 75% combined for tax + NI) and fiddle with the tax system so there are no cliff edges that create effective tax rates above that 75%. In other words, if your income from any source increases by £1, you should never gain less than 25p.

4) Tax every source of income exactly the same. EVERYTHING falls under the same regime - salary, dividends, capital gains, etc. - with no loopholes or exceptions. (If expensive tax lawyers are left twiddling their thumbs, you know the revised system is working.)

5) Adjust all the rest of the income tax and national insurance bands above the sacrosanct "no tax/no NI" lowest band to allow for 1) to 4). This will almost certainly require more tax bands and more granularity.

Net result:
- There's a sense of basic fairness across society: everyone earning at or over the annualised minimum wage (regardless of the source of the money) gets to keep at least the annualised minimum wage component of their total income.
- Work always pays, period.
- There's no point at all in trying to optimise how you make money or game the system because all sources of income are taxed exactly the same

Ok, over to you. What do you think? Be gentle, please. It may well be a naive plan, but it's a naive well-intentioned plan.
Added:

I also believe that NI should be eliminated and there should be just one combined tax.

But that's not necessary for anything I've outlined above - it just makes things simpler, especially when you're taxing ALL income from ALL sources the same - so I left it out.
Added: Minimum wage is about £20,500 for a 48-week year of 40-hour weeks.

Removing both the income tax and the NI from that would leave over £2,200 more in the employee's pocket.

(MSE income tax calculator below.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 11, 2024
THREAD

As Labour are coming up to 100 days in power, it's good to ponder why their honeymoon was so short, and why they appear to be getting a torrid time from media outlets all across the political spectrum.

I've illustrated what I believe is happening. More below...

1/4 Image
The average person's expectations of the Tories was VERY low. Yet they underperformed even that low bar.

On the other hand, people had high hopes of Labour. The gap between such stellar expectations and reality is wider than on the Tory side - even though Labour are better.

2/4 Image
Dashed hopes can be a terrible thing. Especially after 14 years of despair. So it's hardly surprising that there has been a good deal of negative reaction and pushback.

Labour urgently need to improve their various stances to come much closer to what people expect of them.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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