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The Road out of Serfdom Profile picture
@80z_born
Sep 16, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Should I expect a pullback in #Uranium? Use the distance from the 200day MA to guide you!
$ACB
$age
$TOE
$BSK
$DYL
$CXU
$UWEFF
$CVV
$LAM
$PDN
$LOT
$BOE
$EU

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More from @80z_born

The Road out of Serfdom Profile picture
Nov 19, 2021
I have not read Art's comment so I can't say anything on that. I do agree with @BambroughKevin on the contract points for Cameco. With a guidance of 20m lbs/year of sales, and own productions of 9.3m lbs, even if they draw down 100% of their inventory and use the 5.3m lbs
From the loan they gave Orano, by 2023, CCJ must buy in the open markets. With the earliest date of McArthur river to be 2024 and full ramp up by 2025, CCJ likely will need to purchase 14m lbs in the low ball scenario and much more likely 20m lbs to 25m lbs to keep a min
Inventory and satisfy their forecasted sales until 2025.. Rough math will lead you to say this could have very adverse effect on their cash position, cash flow generation and profitability until Mcarthur River comes back and new and higher fixed contracts start to come into
Read 14 tweets
The Road out of Serfdom Profile picture
Nov 16, 2021
I need help! sifting throught Cameco's MD&A from 2017 to today.. And I want to understand where I could have gone wrong. We are given guidance as to what will be the realized price per lbs in the future while Targeting the 40% fixed contract to 60% spot. Given their production
there are only 2 other unknowns. First, their long-term contracted price, and the second is the portion of their book that will be priced at that. I took a stab a backing out what will this ratio be from a fixed to contracted price and I have to admit, I would love to be wrong,
but it seems like Cameco either intends to have a much higher portion of the fixed contract as the price rises leaving less upside if the spot price overshoots or they have already contracted long-term in the past and will not be able to capture the upside in increased spot.
Read 5 tweets

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