Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Uranium

Most recents (24)

I've followed Cameco $CCJ $CCO.TO since 2015 and I consider it the poster child for a value trap.

The company had a terrible time enforcing long-term agreements signed pre-Fukushima, with Japan's Tepco walking out of a $1.3 billion long-term…
#uranium purchase agreement for 9.3 million pounds at a contracted price of $140/lb. Cameco sued for $700 million, won the two-year long legal battle, and was awarded $40.3 million in damages, or a mere 3.1% of TCV.…
As a direct result of this loss of a home for their produced uranium, the company had to shutter Rabbit Lake and McArthur River at significant expense. Worse, the pounds that Tepco had already purchased at $140/lb found their way into the spot market. Along with selling by other
Read 23 tweets
Post today's AGM, we have to say that $AEE will likely be better than $BOE in terms of project matrix.

Sub $20/lb AISC
On a full resource exceeding 100mlbs of recoverable #uranium
Coupled with lowest quartile capex

It going to be hard to achieve a full resource NPV of <$1.80
SP targets on delivery of the following:

40c +60% = $60 spot + Revised Project matrix (29% full resource) achieving 70-85c NPV per share = 1H 2023

60c +140% = $65 spot + Tiris Project Financing completion + runway to 100mlb resource = 2H 2023


80c +220% = $75 spot + 6 month away from cashflowing on 3mlb of capacity = 2H 2024

$1 +300% = $80 spot + massive resource/reserve increase > 100mlb + Optimized Cashflow run rate > $100m = 2H 2025

$2 +700% = combo >$110 spot + implementation 5mlb capacity + >120mlb resource
Read 3 tweets
$AEE AGM about to start, join and become enlightened. Tiris #uranium project cashflowing 2025, scaling production through 2027.
56mlb resource increase to 120mlbs at Tiris > $1.6bn NPV or $1.80 per share. WOW #Uranium $AEE #auraenergy
1600 holes drilled for expansionary resource and reserves = huge above expectation data incoming #uranium

Read 5 tweets
Thought of the day: Price determines our likability of a company, a 95% fall, often changes our view to positive, assuming the fundamentals are considerable, we particularly like <1x cashflow valuations within the next 3 years.
When we accummulated our $AEE position 2018-2020 we paid around:

0.2x 2024/25 Cap/CF

Current Valuation = 0.8x 2024/25 Cap/CF (likely 1.2x fully diluted)

Fair Value 2024 = 5-7x equating to 3-4x upside

Note this excludes Haggen Project which can add 3-5x upside.

Achieving a 20-30 bagger generally requires the vision when the stock is trading on <0.2x Cap/CF 3-5 years out. This often couples with #commodity spots below cost curves, which then come into vogue and rise by 3-8x.
Read 3 tweets
$AEE using only 20% of the old resource in the NPV (without #vanadium credits) = 600% increase in the NPV = $800m at $75 pricing Vs current cap $140m (excluding Swedish battery metals project) #uranium
$AEE ability to expand the resource at 10c per pound #uranium
$AEE 45% fixed operating costs, spread over 3-5mlbs Vs 1mlb boosts the scaling productivity materially pushing AISC lower #uranium
Read 5 tweets
At the peak of the last #uranium bull market I gave a presentation in Switzerland at an #uranium focused investment conference. My presentation was called ‘The Uranium Mania’ and I declared that the majority of uranium equities were in a bubble.
I explained that there was little value to be found in the sector and that a sustained a price over $100/lb wasn’t needed because the world would soon be producing all the #uranium it need because of the huge investment that had occured in the sector.
In the span of 2 years I went from being one of the sectors biggest bulls to one of its only bears.

Today I’m saying a sustained price of $120-140/lb will be needed but we spike to $200/lb or squeeze even higher before it settles in. Many stocks will 5x from here but…
Read 4 tweets
FAANG peaked a year ago as it was stupidly over valued. It’s not cheap by any means today but we will likely end up with a decent bounce into year end. Fund managers will want to bounce the market and I suspect there’s enough people looking to by the dip to help swing things
It’s been an absolutely brutal year for many sectors and a Christmas rally will likely materialize
The distortions in the market are still extreme. For example #bitcoin still holds a ~$320 bln market cap. All those moron coins do is burn energy when created. In contrast all the #uranium stocks combine for a ~$40bln cap and are needed to produce ~11% or global electricity
Read 5 tweets
🧵#Uranium deposits in the #Athabasca basin have some of the smallest lateral foot print from all commodities. This is due to a high grade nature.

UEX has some brilliant visuals of Shea Creek deposits that we can learn from. Image
2/x Kianna and Anne deposits of "Shea Creek discovery" are the most interesting. These are 250-500 m long and c. 40-100 m wide. The high grade part is even smaller!

Kianna has 34 mln lbs @ 1.5% U3O8
Anne 24 mln lbs @ 2% U3O8 ImageImage
3/x Nice resources for such small uranium deposit footprint. What makes these deposits a bit challenging is the depth of 700m.
Read 6 tweets
==> Who should take it and why? <==
Discovery of the year @MinesAndMoney
(and others) 👉…
$ with a brine discovery after first drilling in June 22, SP still down YTD #lithium
$GBR.v Dixie's discovery/break through was in.... 2018? Shouldn't be on this list. case closed
Read 10 tweets
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜 is that after Fukushima the #U3O8 price sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped💰⤵️ as investors mistakenly thought '#Nuclear #energy is dying'🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has recovered over the past decade⚛️🏗️⤴️ so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima & surging higher.🌞 A #Nuclear revival has been underway for years📈 now kicked into high gear🏎️ by an #EnergyCrisis & #NetZero targets.🎯⚡️⏫ .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear fuel demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium production declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined U supply deficit⏬ estimated last year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' from other non-mined sources⛏️.../4👇
Read 5 tweets
1/ A #Uranium Primer for Dummies.

There are multiple levels of risk in the uranium sector.

Category 1.....Low Risk:

Only two names. $SPUT and $YCA.L (YLLXF in the US). Fwiw, I'm not sure Yellowcake is safe from the onerous US PFIC tax rules. Do your own DD on that. I own SPUT
2/ $SPUT (in my opinion) has the best downside risk profile of any u name. Safest name to own with leverage, too. Spot uranium is not going to start trending down unless somebody drops a nuke or a power plant melts down. Period.End of story.
3/ #Uranium risk level 2: Producers and the best of the pure plays on enrichment and SMR tech.

These would include (just my opinion) $CCJ, $URG, $UUUU, $LEU, $SMR.

$KAP is another but it has geopolitical risk that the others do not have (or have to much lower degree).
Read 15 tweets
1/ It's interesting watching the discount to NAV change for $SPUT. Today spot price fell 2.59% and U.UN fell 2.34% but the discount to NAV fell from yesterday's 5.28% to 3.96% today at the close....with no pounds added.
2/ So...if pounds are added and spot price stays the same, that raises NAV for $SPUT

If the spot price rises and the pounds stays the same, that also raises NAV.

Obviously is both spot price and number of pounds rises together, that raises NAV more than either acting alone.
3/ Pounds in the trust never goes down, so there is never a similar additive factor to the downside. NAV only drops when spot price drops.

Discount to NAV would be maximized on a day when both pounds are added and spot goes up, while $SPUT price remains static or declines.
Read 13 tweets
Loi d’accélération du #nucléaire en Conseil des ministres : quid du #climat ? de l'indépendance énergétique ? Un thread pour comprendre comment le gouvernement atomise le débat public #EPR2 #accélérationnucléaire #CNDP #Penly 1/8
Le texte de loi sur l’accélération du nucléaire devrait être adopté au premier trimestre 2023... soit avant la fin du @DebatPenly de la #CNDP sur l’éventuelle relance de la filière nucléaire. Ce calendrier précipité bafoue l’intention démocratique du débat public. 2/8
Quant à prétendre pouvoir accélérer une technologie qui a besoin de temps et de retour d’expérience pour se développer... C'est un nouveau coup de bluff de la part du gouvernement. L’urgence climatique ? Elle ne peut être brandie comme prétexte : 3/8
Read 8 tweets
One huge macro driver for higher sustained #inflation and much higher #commodity prices is that prices will surely have to rise to make it profitable for both Europe and North America to actually return to mining and general self sufficiency.
Emerging market / 3rd world commodity (mining) production accounts of a huge percentages of production of many key minerals. Add in China and Russia’s production and then look at who’s producing and who’s consuming and you’ll see that change is surely coming
Key countries like Chile, Brazil, Peru in South America as well as many parts of the African continent have their mining work suffering greatly from inflation. The worlds mining giants have taken advantage of low cost workers and weak environmental standards for many decades
Read 19 tweets
1/ Once again I'm going into the Monday open with more leverage than I should have, playing for more #uranium upside. Pulling out the crystal ball, I see the dollar as the key to success or failure of what I'd now describe as a nascent rally, just taking off.
2/ There were plenty of signs last week that a rotation into #uranium has actually begun...but so far it's a fragile rally subject to the whims of the USD and broad markets.
3/ The evidence points to a broad market rally now, maybe through year-end. But commodities in general are facing serious recession fears....the actual signs for that are there, although the signals are not all fully aligned for that.
Read 6 tweets
1/ Little energy pf weekend update: Now sitting at roughly 78% #uranium and 22% #oilandgas. 12 u names and 4 O&G names. Pf leverage is 19%, toward the high end for me but not all in.
2/ #oilandgas names by pf %: $ITE 7.4%, $ROK 5.8%, $PTAL 4.9%, $GTE 4.2%
3/ #uranium names by pf % : $U.UN 20.1%, $UEC 9.9%, $DNN 8.6%, $EU 6.5%, $GLO 6.1%, $NXE 5.7%, $URG 5.2%, $FIND 4.8%, $LEU 4%, $92E 3%, $CVVUF 2.1%, $GXU 1.5%
Read 4 tweets
Utility:Dear producer,could you restart your production to sell us your #uranium at 50USD/lb so that we can extend our operations
Producer:I need 75+USD/lb to make a profit, labour &material cost went up 15%
Utility:Please,it’s urgent.
Producer:NO,this isn’t charity!
-> $U.UN 🚀
Can $URG $UEC $UUUU US assets of $CCJ,… make profit if they sell #uranium at 50USD/lb? NO
Will they restart those prod for 55USD/lb? NO
URG has 1st supply contract 200,000lb/y starting 2H2023,but has >300,000lb inventory => can postpone prod start.
Same for UUUU, UEC,…
$UUUU has ~120,000lb #uranium prod from Monazite Sand process into RE Carbonate, & has >750,000lb U3O8 inventory=> can postpone prod start
$UEC has ~2Mlbs U3O8 inventory today from 5Mlbs bought (~3Mlbs delivered to UEC between today & 2026)=> can postpone prod start
Read 6 tweets
Greetings from the NEI International #Uranium Fuel Seminar Day 2. My thoughts, in no particular order: Image
(1) Transportation is hard. Like really hard. Nuclear power is extraordinarily energy dense, and while that’s a huge plus for nuclear power, it means the nuclear materials make up a relatively small volume of any ocean or rail shipment. It’s *maybe* a weak spot.
We’ve got a lot of capable companies and people working on this problem. LEU+ and HALEU fuels are going to require new transport packages and new gov’t regulations. These adaptations are in progress, but they ain’t free.
Read 12 tweets
Greetings from the NEI International #Uranium Fuel Seminar in sunny Las Vegas. Step into my office.

Day 1 thoughts in no particular order:
A major nuclear utility discussed the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act. New economics might justify unit “uprates,” i.e. increasing the power level of existing reactors.

Bottom line: ~6% generation increase (probably with proportional #uranium demand increase)
There’s enormous promise for small modular reactors (SMRs) - but it’s not clear when these units will actually need uranium (or even when they’ll get built). The DOE seems aware of the challenges and they’re ready to help create a “demand signal.”
Read 7 tweets
$sruut @ $12.76/sh means it can issue an afford to pay $51.20/lb for #uranium

We are poised for a nice run. The physical market has demonstrated excellent relative strength against the major markets.
Central bankers must begin to increase liquidity and I expect #uranium to take off like a coiled spring. The reversal by Germany is hugely significant. Greens are acknowledging that nuclear power is superior to coal. Japan has reversed course and one by one major nations join in
We have restarts, new builds and life extensions continually adding to the short medium and long term demand models. I believe that to meet this demand we must see a doubling of the price of #uranium but markets always over shoot. Squeeze should be epic and beyond $200/lb
Read 10 tweets
1/🧵: Call for @MacroVoices ATOMIC ENERGY guest recommendations

This thread will lay out my editorial objectives for bringing one or more atomic energy experts on @MacroVoices to discuss the future of nuclear energy and the formative global energy crisis.

@MacroVoices 2/ I am convinced that the formative global energy crisis will finally FORCE the world to grow up and recognize that nuclear energy has always been the greenest, safest, and most renewable source of energy to power the global economy.

But emotion trumps logic in politics, so
@MacroVoices 3/ the transition won't come easily.

IMHO, the light water, site-built reactors of the 1970s have to go. Despite that nuclear is statistically the safest form of energy, it could be a LOT safer if we got rid of designs susceptible to meltdown, no matter how small the risk.
Read 13 tweets
One thing to consider… $650mm moving into Cameco is great for the #uranium sector. Institutional interest is only going to grow and market cap growth makes the sector more investable for larger institutions
$urnm $ura $u.u $sput will all benefit with greater attention and inflows. As the big boys get positioned in #uranium equities you can bet they will also want to have significant exposure to physical #uranium
It’s the #energy market trade of the decade as #nuclear power will be taking center stage. Overfeeding is coming and the demand for #uranium is set to grow by multiples over the next decade plus.
Read 4 tweets
Many investors dont like Amir Adnani, but gotta give him credit for buying UEX & Roughrider, probably making $UEC the most leveraged stock to the #uranium price. Rio paid US$11/lb in 2011 for Hathor, and now selling Roughrider for $2.59/lb - how to destroy shareholder value 101
And do you know what is the irony? By paying $2.59/lb for Roughrider it is actually lower than currently what market is offering $uec on a total resources per pound basis (~$6.4/lb) before the deal. So yes, the acquisition of Roughrider lowers the valuation of UEC to $5.2/lb
And Roughrider immediately will become the highest grade project in UEC's portfolio. Will there be a higher bidder?
Read 3 tweets
FYI. I’m not at all bitter even if I may sound it. In my youth I studied the history of money and the federal reserve system. After ‘the light bulb went on’, I felt I had no choice but to teach myself to invest/trade (play) the inflation/deflation cycle ‘game’ that the fed plays
Money will always be created in ever growing quantities. The game is to invest now where you’re sure it will flow to next #uranium as a sector is that place. The entire sector has such a tiny market cap (sub $100b) even if you include government owned entities.
Read 4 tweets

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