Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Uranium

Most recents (24)

Interesting footnote to today’s news: Kazakhstan has specific laws regarding the accounting treatment of #uranium when it crosses its national borders. Taxes are paid on the value of the uranium - set by independent 3rd parties - at the time of transaction (i.e “the transfer”).
Not enough details yet available about the ANU Energy fund, but I will be on the lookout for its policies regarding inventory storage locations and related-party transactions (e.g. swaps, loans, and physical redemptions) and how they interact with transfer pricing law.
Phrased a different way, there seems to be an opportunity to optimize uranium inventory location and ownership in a way that minimizes taxation (e.g. by getting pounds out of Kazakhstan ASAP) if an organization thinks prices will exceed the state-approved price projections.
Read 6 tweets
Capex inflation will be a killer:

Delays in underground mining as well as some deferred open-pit metal production have caused an increase in estimated incremental funding requirement to $3.6 billion from the $2.4 billion expected in July. mining.com/turquoise-hill…
“Total costs for the move underground is now approaching $8 billion, up from the Rio’s original budget of $5.3 billion set in 2016.”
I promise you many #uranium projects are gonna do this as well but be much more extreme. By the time many of our beloved little uranium companies actually update feasibility studies and update costs 2-3 more times along the road to production we will see capex 2-3x
Read 7 tweets
FYI. I’ve heard from a few people that @RealRickRule said the the easy gains have been had in #uranium and is pushing #gold as the better play.
I’ll let Rick chime in if he wants to discuss things. But I’m pretty sure he told me he was 2-3 years early last uranium cycle and sold mostly out a year before the peak. Probably happy with $65-75/lb
Yes he made a great pass on $pdn but we at Sprott under my recommendation bought in at $0.08 basically at the start of the bull and rode it to $3.50 before selling any and ultimately to $6+ for final shares
Read 14 tweets
Been thinking more about what’s happening with SPUT $u.un $u.u $spruuf

The impact of the shares no longer being approved for trading in the USA via OTC is nearly entirely to blame for the current down trend. Here’s why and what happened: (securities lawyers can help here)
Just a couple weeks ago SPUT $sruuf was shut down from being able to trade OTC (over the counter) USA by many brokerages. This happened because of a rule change for foreign funds and disclosures/approvals required by USA regulators and USA brokers.
When Sprott took over management of Uranium Participation Corp they converted it to a Trust (fund) and added the ATM abilities. It was at first able to trade in the USA but due to a rule change and Sprott not filing a “KID” doc and getting approval to distribute this “Fund”
Read 15 tweets
Many Black Swans are circling over head like vultures ready to rip many industries apart.

A few 5am thoughts on:

#energycrisis #currencycrisis
#debtcrisis
#coal
#gas
#inflation
#blackswan
Coal generates nearly 40% of the world's electricity, close to its highest share in decades.

Thermal coal prices are spiking out of control all over the world. I’m some places doubling historic all time highs.
“Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, accounting today for 23% of global primary energy demand and nearly a quarter of electricity generation”

Again natgas prices spiking out of control and taking power prices with it
Read 28 tweets
I luv $lot a lot :)
I think it will be one of the first #uranium stocks to make a new 52 week high.
Read 4 tweets
Started analyzing the $URNM holdings. Data as of 09/30. Wanted to look at the potential impact of URNM flows if (when?) that ETF starts getting massive inflows.

#uranium
Question I was trying to answer: If $URNM sees $10 million of inflow in a day (<2% assets), how much of volume will the passive flows make up for each of its holdings?

Holdings from $URNM website, rest of the data from Google Finance.
Using recent 20-day volume, top names are:
1. Berkeley Energia $BKY.LN (26% median volume)
2. Goviex Uranium $GXU.CN $GVXXF (10%)
3. Western Uranium & Vanadanium $WUC.CN $WSTRF (9%)
Read 9 tweets
1/13 #Uranium #mining #stocks are blessed😇 with incredibly bullish fundamentals🤠🐂 as surging demand for #CarbonFree #Nuclear #energy⚛️🏗️⬆️ for #NetZero🌞 collides💥 with a sustained #U3O8 supply deficit.⛏️⬇️ Here's a thread 4U that explores the Uranium #investing thesis 💰🧵👇 Image
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂../3 ImageImageImageImage
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ which can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒 .../4 Image
Read 13 tweets
1/

Some thoughts of my investment plan in #uranium.

My plan calls for some intra-sector rotation once the cycle starts to heat up.

There are some plays that will outrun others, for various reasons, some being the narrative, history & expectation probability.
2/

There are many equities that fit at least two of these categories, but at least $PDN is one that fits all of these three.

What do you think could be one?
3/

I've already started the rotation from this cooling period, where many have corrected 30-50% from the recent peak. I'm not selling any here, but rather use some margin and/or rotation from other assets to buy.

I will finance this when I see over extension the next time.
Read 8 tweets
My thoughts on why the US Dollar will soon loose its status as a reserve currency and just a couple of the huge consequences
#usd #usdollar #economy #trade #china #currency #gold #inflation #HardLessons #LivingWage
I delved into global macro economics in the late 1990's and invested in the 2000-2010 commodity boom in large part based on my belief in China's and India's economy booming and their demand growth taking off. The resource bear market looked to be ending & US tech was overvalued
Today's global marco picture seems very similar but with some distinct differences. The Nasdaq QQQ seems even more grossly overvalued to me than it was in 2000 along with SPX. Interest rates have been cut to nothing already and quantitative easing is now a well established tool
Read 31 tweets
To put in in perspective Japan was consuming around 22 mln lbs per annum prior to the abrupt plant shutdowns post Fukushima. If your not long #uranium in a major way in anticipation of them reversing course soon, your going to miss out on the investment of the decade
Germany I think will scramble to buy 9mln lbs a year when they wake the fuck up and realize they must deal with the power crisis and cannot shut off their nuclear reactors. In fact they must get busy building Gen IV reactors
The is in a world that already has the largest supply / demand deficit of any commodity. Investing in this #uranium market at these values is 100% only available because governments move slowly and are generally incompetent
Read 6 tweets
"90% of the gains occur within the last 10%."

1/

Case study $PDN $PDN.ax $PALAF #uranium #investing @quakes99
2/

Total cycle Decile returns of Paladin Energy Apr 2003 to Apr 2007
3/

Isolated decile returns and cumulative return of Paladin Energy Apr 2003 - Apr 2007
Read 6 tweets
Stock price expectations in #uranium and selecting outperformers from here:
A) overpromotion and hence high expectations priced in leads to underperformance
B) underpromotion moving to promotion and broker coverage leads to outperformance
C) the better project matrix + promotion.
...... Leads to outperformance
D) over promoted + below average project matrix + high expectations leads to underperformance
E) accelerating promotion, coupled with 1st tier project matrix coupled with ETF triple entry leads to massive outperformance.

#uranium
For some time now, ego on individual #uranium stock names appears to be blinkering reality:
A) AISC of <$30 is great Vs >$50
B) 80% of the cycle is governed by the spot move, not promotor mgmt.
C) Low capex intensity is much better than high
D) low expectations + achievement =
Read 3 tweets
All over Europe there will be a rush to order new nuclear plants. We are just on the cusp a nuclear power revolution. The demand growth for #uranium will take all market pundits by surprise. thetimes.co.uk/article/energy…
The world needs to dramatically cut coal power output while trying to shift to electric vehicles. Power prices are going to continue to blow out and the public will vote with their wallets. We have zero choice in the matter and must ramp up nuclear power output, warp speed
The correction we’ve had in the #uranium space is a gift for new investors.

For those already in, we’ve learned a lot about the volatility and should be prepared for a lot more. We’ve seen how easily the #uranium price ramps up when SPUT $u.un is issuing shares at a premium
Read 10 tweets
Cycle length dependents and flexibility:
A) The spot price level provides implications for supply or demand volumes
B) Rapid increases to super normal margin levels will stimulate accelerated supply responses sooner than originally projected
C) Fluid view on duration required
Working examples:

#ironore massive evaluated price created a massive supply response in 6 months, spot down 50% plus

#coal massive accelerated price, potential shortages of substitution alternatives over the next 6 months, emerging market supply response in due course.
Now in the context of #uranium: cycle duration from today

Spot moves to $120 plus in:

18 months = cycle duration remaining 24 months

12m = 18 months
9m = 15 months
6m = 12 months
3m = 9 months
Read 3 tweets
Key investor psychology to understand:
1) Conviction allows sitting on a theme
2) Fear is not when a price is going down, but actually when it's peaking on euphoria
3) Greed is not when a price is going up, but when its bottoming
4) Expectations govern stockprices
#uranium
In recent months many of our followers misunderstand, the different between expectations built in and actual outcomes, stockprices often gage 3-6 month future expectation outcomes, particularly when a sector is in a momentum phase of its cycle like #uranium today.
Actual outcomes are less important if they are already priced into expectations, at the recent peak of #uranium stocks the implied premium over spot was $15-20. That has reduced by $5-8, to $9-13 depending where the spot moves next week relative to stockprices.
Read 3 tweets
1/

At any given moment in a market cycle it can be very educational to think, who and with what goals does the current action benefit the most?

#uranium #SPUT #u308 #investing
2/

We just had extended highs as the SPUT caused the spot rise through the feedback loop. As the SPUT lost the premium, due whatever reason, the rally stalled and started losing steam causing a reverse in equities.
3/

After the highs, think who distributes and who accumulates, and on which side of the market, physical or equities?
Read 10 tweets
The big resource macro tail wind that I’m hearing from industry guys is the lack of labour is surprising everyone. Everyone is struggling to attract and train mining industry people.

Was talking to a coal industry veteran today and it was very revealing
The record coal pricing in Australia is now moving around the globe. Port capacity is a huge issue everywhere along with rail, shipping etc. But, they industry is in shock how tough it is to try to hire and train people. Especially mining workers
Some of us aren’t so surprised that the industry has ‘lost a generation’. One comment that stuck with me is ‘we are competing with fedex’ for workers. Seems like the idea of tolling away in a 4-5ft coal seam aint as much fun as playing the video game ‘minecraft’
Read 9 tweets
Anyone looking at an initial investment in the #uranium space should take a close look at $NXE Nexgen Energy. The Arrow deposit speaks for itself as the largest undeveloped high grade deposit on the planet. They are advanced should be able to cash in on this cycle.
What is not often discussed is that they have the best exploration potential in the Athabasca Basin as well. I remember Rick Rule saying Arrow was not even their best exploration target just the most accessible. This years drill campaign could really surprise people. #NXE
Finally they own 50% of $ISO.v Iso Energy which they spun out because they were getting no value for it and had too many targets to drill as well. All $ISO.v has done is have some of the best drill results in the #uranium space over the last 2 yrs. $NXE
Read 4 tweets
#uranium. I’d encourage everyone to spend the first 15 mins to watch @brandon_munro give a fab update on what’s going on with the SPUT vehicle. Even for someone who watches the sector closely, I couldn’t help get more bullish with couple catalysts that one may have missed.Namely
1. URA Re inclusion of SPUT once it seasons would lead to serious torque for SPUT-leading to more uranium stacking- leading to better U miner perf
2. NYSE listing of SPUT next year
Read 7 tweets
Morning uranium thoughts:

Part of me wants to say I’m surprised how much push back I’m getting publicly and privately for asking questions and just trying to get up to speed on $ccj $cco Cameco’s current position in the Uranium space, it’s pros cons, valuation and such.
But I’m not surprised because I’ve seen this and done this so many times over the years in so many sector’s. With a $10b market cap they have a lot of shareholders that want the stock to fly and they also have the most liquid options trading in the sector so lots of call owners
Anyhow, uranium Twitter should not be a cult where so called experts only say good things about all stocks and we work together to suck in as much capital as possible for the sector so that all boats lift together. Pushing for that sort of cohesive one sided culture…
Read 25 tweets
THREAD:
I will cover and share my views on the following topics:
BTC / ETH
SPX / Russell 2000
CRB / REMX / OIL charts
USD / EURO
and of course by vote : $PDN $DML $EFR $FCU
Enjoy and let me know what you think👌🤝
As you know, I believe that Bitcoin and the total Crypto Market cap is tied to not only Markets, but USD, and Uranium stocks. It trades like a commodity, and its Priced in USD
BTC is not sitting on a major resistance turned support
There are 2 likely outcomes for me .....
#1 - this is the bottom and it grinds higher from here (above 44,700K is bullish) OR we drop into massive accumulation zone below. Both remain fully BULLISH unless that level give out. I still maintain we will see new ATH by end 2021 - my current count is below
Read 25 tweets

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