Sajid Javid is right about masks in parliament as MPs are not strangers, and it's the same reason why total cases may not rise and may even fall when schools reopen.
Populations are highly structured, basically many small world networks. With 90%+ antibodies in nearly every....
Populations are highly structured, basically many small world networks. With 90%+ antibodies in nearly every....
..age group above 16, that means many of those small world networks are actually at the herd immunity threshold - and indeed that's the only level at which the concept is coherent. There's no such thing as 'herd immunity for London'
When these small world networks mix, like....
When these small world networks mix, like....
..in a pub for the Euros where a majority may be susceptible, or a music festival, or indoor events at the vacation hotel, that's when you can get rising cases or 'exponential' trends even with very few aggregate susceptibles.
If there's only one thing the mathematical .....
If there's only one thing the mathematical .....
..modelling of diseases gets from the Covid experience, especially UK this summer, it's that administrative area populations are not SIR populations .
That (+inherent overdispersion) is how measured 'R' can be 1.5 one day and 0.5 the very next day.
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That (+inherent overdispersion) is how measured 'R' can be 1.5 one day and 0.5 the very next day.
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