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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Jan 21

$500B committed towards AGI, still no articulated vision of what a world with AGI looks like for most people. Even the huge essay by the CEO of Anthropic doesn't paint a vivid picture

For those convinced they are making AGI soon - what does daily life look like 5-10 years later?

Lets leave aside the risk of catastrophe for now.

Assume we get an aligned AGI that supercharges science and we have a healthier, more advanced, safer world. What does that actually mean for most people, what does their life look like in the future? (Hint: UBI is not an answer)

When I say "UBI is not an answer" I mean UBI is a policy decision, it is not a description of what life would be like in a world of highly advanced AI.

And saying "the definition of a singularity means we can't say what comes next" is also just dodging the question of a vision.

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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Jan 15

New randomized, controlled trial of students using GPT-4 as a tutor in Nigeria. 6 weeks of after-school AI tutoring = 2 years of typical learning gains, outperforming 80% of other educational interventions.

And it helped all students, especially girls who were initially behind

No working paper yet, but the results and experiment are written up here. They used Microsoft Copilot and teachers provided guidance and initial prompts: blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/F…

To make clear the caveats for people who don't read the post: learning gains are measured in Equivalent Years of Schooling, this is a pilot study on narrow topics and they do not have long-term learning measures. And there is no full paper yet (but the team is credible)

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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Dec 17, 2024

Veo 2 prompt: "a distant shot zooms in to reveal a knight wearing a golden helmet, he begins to charge on his zebra, lowering his lance, charging towards a clockwork octopus" (this is one of the initial 4 videos it made)

"an woman with short black hair assembles an impossibly complicated device, close up on her face, she is sweating"

The consistency of small details is really impressive, the fact that the shaft of the screw turns at the same speed and direction, hair and sweat, tattoos...

"a man holding the leash of a golden retriever stares mournfully at a fireworks display over his small town of Tudor-style homes, the flashes punctuate the darkness."

All videos are from the first 4 from the prompt. I did learn that you can't ask for many cuts or scene changes.

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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Dec 8, 2024

I thought puzzle design beyond current AI, so this is the first time I have seen a model actually create a solvable and interesting puzzle.

"o1, create a d&d puzzle that is non-trivial, but solvable. it should not involve elements or statues, be creative."

(Solution in thread)

Here are the hints it gave and the solution.

(There is one unnecessary step in the puzzle, by the way, but a zero shot coherent word puzzle is pretty neat)

I suppose the silent e's might complicate things, but I wouldn't think they would stop solving.

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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Oct 26, 2024

Claude: “Give me hard original writing prompts for an MFA program” yields some really clever (and near impossible) prompts.

A few more. (Literal prompt: “give me some more”)

It did well on #12 (broken into parts)

# The Night Shift
## Operation Manual: TX-2047 Industrial Processing Unit
### Document Classification: Essential Reading
### Last Updated: 27 October 2024

**WARNING: Failure to follow proper shutdown procedures may result in catastrophic system failure and/or permanent spiritual contamination of the processing unit. All operators must complete this training module before attempting solo operation.**

I've been working the night shift at the plant for three weeks now, and I still can't shake the feeling that something's wrong. The constant hum of machinery should be comforting – white noise to fade into the background – but instead it feels like a presence. Watching. Waiting.

**1. INITIAL POWER-UP SEQUENCE**
- Locate the main control panel in the eastern wing
- Insert operator key and turn clockwise until resistance is felt
- Wait for the safety lights to pulse three times

The eastern wing is the worst. During day shift, it's just another industrial corridor: concrete floors, steel pipes, fluorescent lights. But at night, those same lights flicker and dim, casting shadows that seem to move when you're not looking directly at them. The shadows are always darker near the main control panel.

**WARNING: Never attempt to force the operator key if resistance occurs before a full clockwise turn. This may indicate a structural compromise in the primary containment system.**

The manual says the resistance is normal, just the safety systems engaging. But it feels different every time – sometimes a clean click, sometimes a grinding that sets my teeth on edge. Last night, I swear I heard whispering when I turned the key.

**2. PRIMARY SYSTEM ACTIVATION**
- Check all pressure gauges in sequence (A through F)
- Verify each gauge reads within acceptable parameters (see Table 1.1)
- If any gauge shows readings in the red zone, proceed to Emergency Protocol 7

They never told me what happened to the last night shift operator. Clean record, five years of experience, then one morning they found the control room empty. The key was still in the panel, turned halfway. All six pressure gauges were pegged in the red.

**Table 1.1 - Acceptable Operating Parameters**
```
Gauge A: 2.3 - 2.7 kPa
Gauge B: 15.0 - 15.5 kPa
Gauge C: 7.2 - 7.8 kPa
Gauge D: 3.0 - 3.3 kPa
Gauge E: 9.1 - 9.4 kPa
Gauge F: 4.5 - 4.8 kPa
```

The numbers dance in front of my eyes during every check. Sometimes they seem to change when I blink, but when I look again, they're normal. Always just within acceptable parameters. Always just barely safe.

**3. COOLANT SYSTEM INITIALIZATION**
- Open primary coolant valves in the following sequence ONLY:
1. Valve 2C
2. Valve 4A
3. Valve 1B
4. Valve 3D
- Listen for the distinctive activation tone
- Verify flow rates on digital display

The activation tone. That's what they call it in the manual. A clear, mechanical chime that means everything's working properly. But it doesn't sound like a chime anymore. It sounds like singing. Like a voice calling from somewhere deep in the pipes.

**WARNING: The correct valve sequence must be followed precisely. Improper activation may result in system contamination and anomalous behavior of both mechanical and digital components.**

I asked my supervisor about system contamination once. His face went pale, and he told me to stick to the manual. Just follow the procedures. Don't ask questions. Don't investigate unusual sounds. Don't look too long at the shadows near the pressure gauges.

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Ethan Mollick

@emollick

Oct 21, 2024

I wish people would stop repeating these as if they are facts that AI is plateauing.

AI might hit a roadblock, we don’t know, but every one of these issues has multiple studies stating the opposite: synthetic data works, scaling is fine, etc. We need more nuance on the AI future

https://twitter.com/RylanSchaeffer/status/1816881533795422404

Good thread on synthetic data:

https://twitter.com/RylanSchaeffer/status/1816881533795422404

https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1843804298863620299

One paper arguing the other side of the “LLMs don’t reason” debate

https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1843804298863620299

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