To avert a bigger debt crisis, GoK must reduce its debt load. That means paying it off without getting further indebted. Increasing taxes isn't an option. Further increase can only reduce total collection & degrade tax base.
There's only one remaining option - sell govt assets.
Going forward, GoK needs to create fiscal space -trim Expenditure, esp wasteful recurrent spending & tame grandiose debt financed infrastructure while reducing tax rates to spur growth through private enterprise. A wide tax base is only achieved by broadbased growth in incomes.
GoK must understand tax is charged on income, not people. The greater the level of income & volume of economic activities, the greater the tax base & tax revenue. Higher activity volume is achieved thro number of transactions - people. Inclusive growth is thus critical.
Tax revenue growth can be achieved in two ways: 1. Volumes - higher volume of economic activities. 2. Rate - higher tax rate.
Only (1) is capable of growing tax revenue sustainably while at the same time accommodating growth.
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Opportunity cost is foregone benefit that would've been derived from an option not chosen.
This is, ideally, the best criteria for decisions on allocation of resources among/btwn competing needs.
Now, imagine many better things ksh450B spent on SGR could've done😱🤔
Imagine, instead of SGR, we spent the money in extraction, desalination & utilisation of water from Lokitipi aquifer in Turkana county. The aquifer holds 250B cubic metres of water. Kenya uses 3B cubic metres per year. bbc.com/news/science-e…
All we needed to make this water drinkable & fit for irrigation was ksh5-10Bn. GoK had no money for such a venture but was splashing ksh450B for an elegant ornamental infrastructure piece with little economic imperative. Meanwhile, Turkana hunger & thirst. theguardian.com/global-develop…
This week, GoK used ksh82.7B of your taxes to pay China Exim bank part of SGR loan. Remember SGR was to generate sh22B/yr from 1.5% import levy to service the loan.
Here's highlight some of bizarre things paid for by the loan your taxes are repaying.
Guys, you noticedNCBA is co-lead manager for new Eurobond?
Family business is harvesting a windfall from kenya's debt issue.
Recall: NCBA merger was exempted from paying millions in stamp duty - taxes.
But it's ok.
Conflict of interest doesn't apply for the overlords.
Not too long ago, GoK donated a plane load of milk powder to South Sudan. A kind gesture in every way. Save for the fact that the milk was from brookside.
So, GoK buys milk from brookside to donate to South Sudan!
Still, conflict of interest didn't apply for the plantation owner.
A Sh2B tender to supply mobile clinics went to a family owned briefcase company. The company delivered refurbished containers, received full pay & refused to pay taxes due.
Their argument about being awarded the tender was ''we too are Kenyans''.
No conflict of interest!
In 90s, Kenya had her coffers empty & loan taps dry, like today. One of IMF & WB conditions for loans was a lean civil service.
My dad was retrenched in 2000, after 21yrs of service, got only 40k.
Rest was said to have been spent on trainings he wasn't invited & never attended😭
How the govt would spend over half a million training employees on entrepreneurship, from their own money,for separation & only leave them with sh40k has always baffled me.
It's more saddening when these employees actual never had the benefit of this training. Money was stolen.
18 yrs in court & they lost in the hands of Justice Roseline Nambuye.
I know of many retrenched kenyan who committed suicide, killed themselves with alcohol or died of depression.
This is something I hope GoK never gets to repeat, ever.
TRADE, not AID, is what Africa needs to achieve for economic growth & a transition to industrialised/developed status.
Thoughtless liberalisation, the kind Kenya seeks with developed world isn't the kind of trade we need.
We need more Intra-Africa trade & guarded liberalisation.
Opening kenya's economy to seriously unequal competition without laying down a foundation (& short term safeguards to domestic industry) to ensure stimulation of competitiveness by domestic industry in the medium term, incl technological transfer is a suicide pill to the economy.
Kenya's domestic industry was wiped out by this kind of thoughtless liberalisation imposed by brettonhood institutions (IMF &WB) in late 80s & early 90s. That mistake shouldn't be repeated.
Nations that embraced gradual & guarded liberalisation had different, but better outcomes.
German economic miracle was driven by family-owned SMEs called mittelstand. Japan economic miracle was driven by locally family-owned SMEs in alliances known as Keiretsu. S. Korea had Chaebols. In Taiwan SMEs made 50% of world's umbrellas in 1989.
In Kenya, we are killing SMEs.
We fancy economic models of successful nation's but fail to emulate their examples. Our economic renaissance will not be driven by foreign-owned multinationals but by family-owned local enterprises (SMEs). Policies that promote their growth is what we need, not crippling taxes.
Kenya has sufficient local skills & vibrant entrepreneural spirit & only needs a conducive macroeconomic environment to deliver Kenya's economic miracle. That's the missing link.