Suraj Profile picture
Sep 20, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Updating for 3rd wk Sept. Slightly delayed due to delayed data update on PIB/MoHFW.

Predictably after the 25M world record on Sept 17, this week is the best ever- 67 million.

This week alone is 2x the total by Europe or North America for the whole September to date.

1/
The daily bucketed performance is unable to show the magnitude of the Sept 17th perf well enough. A simpler expression is:

1. On Sept 17, India did more doses than the rest of the world combined.
3. India accounted for ~60% of doses worldwide that day.

2/
The following two charts show Indian vaccination as a fraction of global total in September, both daily and aggregate.

India has outdone its share of world pop (~16%) substantially. When share crosses 50%, that means India outdoes rest of world combined.

3/
Month to date vaccinations are nearly 155 million now, more than any month except August, which it is on track to overtake this week.

The current 18 day performance extrapolates to a month end total of 250-260 million doses.

4/
Last week, Indian vaccinations were compared to cumulative performance in multiple continents.

India continues to maintain a performance totaling higher than the combined vaccinations in Europe + N America + S America + Africa.

5/
An argument made recently is that govt is hoarding supplies for one-day PR stunts.

Data does not agree. It instead matches what’s stated before - supplies available with states closely tracks prior 1-week performance.

Trendlines align, with no supply accumulation.

6/
The previous chart is simply 7DMA data overlaid with this previously reported chart.

Tl;dr - the inventories with states equal approx a 1wk supply, and this has not changed for many weeks.

Not very different from business; 1wk supply lets system work smoothly…

7/
India officially overtook Europe this week in total doses.

A close race which became a no contest on the 17th, when India started the day a few million behind and finished it >20 million ahead.

Note: ourworldindata has a 1-2 day lag in Indian data.

8/
The same data lag applies to this chart, but nevertheless it emphasizes the gulf between India and rest of world now.

Both in raw 7DMA and in daily vaccinations/100, India continues to do far better than the western world.

Thanks to Brazil, S America is also doing well.

9/
This week, India reached:
* 800 million total doses
* 600 million with 1 dose
* 200 million fully vaccinated

It took 11 days to get from 700m to 800m. Therefore ending the month on >900m remains on track.

The key now is to reduce 2nd dose interval to finish faster.

10/10

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More from @surajbrf

Apr 26
@virendersehwag is just stating reality.

The IPL is by a distance the richest T20 league in the world, over 5x bigger than the BBL, probably moreso today:



The Big Bash League is not a peer of the IPL, but of of the Caribbean Premier League.

1/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p…

Image
The IPL is also far more lucrative in revenue per game, despite the fact that with a mere 74 games, it’s in the bottom 5 of sports leagues by number of games played per season.

Each of those games is a money spinner. Let’s look at how much.

2/ Image
In terms of total revenue, the IPL ranks a reasonable 13th position among global leagues, despite having so few games in a single season.

But this is an incomplete picture.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13, 2022
$669 billion in total exports for the just concluded fiscal year 2021-22 !

Up from just under $500 billion in the COVID-hit 2020-21 and $540 billion in the pre-COVID 2019-20 FY.

This should catapult India into the top 10 exporting countries, for the first time since 1949.
There are only three countries on the planet with $1 trillion+ exports - China, USA and Germany. Even Japan is around $850-900B in FY 2021.

India jumped ~10 ranking places to provisionally #8 this year. Positions 4-7 are Japan, UK, France and Netherlands - all $700-900B.


India began 1949 the 9th biggest exporter.
It left the top 10 by end of that year.
It left the top 20 in 1957.
It reentered the top 20 in 2010, but didn't rise further until 2017-18 when it was 18th ranked. 2021-22 saw a big jump to 8th position. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19, 2022
Updating thread for Feb 19 2022

Today was a day of symmetry as the vaccination total hit 175 crore (1.75 billion), exactly on day 400 since start of vaccination. This corresponds to an average of almost 4.4 million vaccinations a day, over four hundred days.

1/
The monthly total to date is now almost 88 million. February should easily cross 100 million and will likely finish at around 125 million. This is expected as it is predominantly second dose + boosters. March will be much higher as the 12+ group becomes eligible.

2/
With even the second dose numbers not very high now, the daily average over the past week was just 4 million - multiple days towards the end of week being around 3.98 million, and thus still in the 3.x bucket.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 5, 2022
Starting a thread for week ended Feb 5 2022.

This was another quiet week with ‘only’ 38 million doses. January ended as the second highest month for vaccinations, with 215 million doses done:

1/
This Is because the weekly numbers dropped to just 5.5-6.5 million this week, driven mostly by a drop in first dose numbers.

The 15-17 group has received ~6 million second doses, even as their first dose numbers taper.

We will dig into this more.

2/
Why are first doses tapering ?

Because there are not many people left to do.

Green - current eligible group
Yellow - starting in March
Red - vaccine in Phase 3 trials
Blue - pediatric vaccine in early trials

The green group is only 99 million, mostly distant rural.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5, 2022
The V-Dem Report is garbage for the simple reason that both the data and methodology are bogus.

There are 150+ questions to be answered by a panel of ~20 people.

10-20x too many questions. Sample size needs to be 1000x larger.

This cannot mitigate sampling error.

1/
So how do you fix sampling error ? You get a small number of people to agree - keeping pop standard deviation down because sample size is tiny.

Disagreement is a problem - if you get half of them to disagree, your sampling error is 20-45% depending on sample size. Oops.

2/
So let us pretend these experts indeed know what they’re doing. Let us look at the data. This author has the entire VDem dataset, analyzed in detail together with @jai_menon :

swarajyamag.com/ideas/an-analy…

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2, 2022
UPI Transaction Volume Crosses $1 Trillion !

Finally it has happened - In the trailing 12 month period (Feb 2021 - Jan 2022), the aggregate UPI transaction volume touched $1.013 trillion, up from $960 billion for the 12 months to Dec 2021.

1/
Total transaction count for the same trailing 12 month period (Feb 2021 - Jan 2022) has crossed 40 billion, to reach 41.06 billion transactions:

2/
In Rupee terms, the trailing 12 month total is ₹75.6 lakh crore, or 75.6 trillion, equaling just over $1 trillion at the current ₹74.7/$ .

The strong network effect is visible both in transaction count and value terms as the chart goes parabolic.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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